What is Shell's view on the role of oil and gas in the years ahead?

• The world still needs energy from hydrocarbons. Fossil fuels, including coal, oil and gas, represented about 80% of global energy consumption in 2024, with oil and gas accounting for 53%, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA)
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• While global energy demand increases, IEA analysis estimates
  conventional oil and gas fields are declining by between 5.6% and 6.8% every year. The IEA also notes that if all capital investment in existing sources of oil and gas production were to cease immediately, global oil production would fall by 8% a year on average over the next decade, or around 5.5 million barrels per day each year. This is equivalent to losing more than the annual output of Brazil and Norway each year.
• Shell believes significant investment in oil and gas will be needed to support demand while low-carbon alternatives are developed and made commercially available.

Oil and gas, including liquefied natural gas (LNG), play a major role in global energy supply today. Shell expects they will remain part of the energy system for decades as the world transitions to low-carbon energy.

Our latest Shell Scenarios ^[B], which explore different energy futures, highlight that:

• Primary energy demand in 2050 could be nearly 25% higher than in 2025.
• Oil demand is likely to grow by 3‒5 million barrels per day into the early 2030s, with a long but slow decline after that.
• Natural gas demand could grow by nearly 10% into the 2040s, reaching around 4,500 billion cubic metres per annum, of which about 20% is LNG.

As part of our strategy to deliver more value with less emissions, we will grow our integrated gas and LNG business. We will also sustain liquids production at 1.4 million barrels a day through to 2030, supporting the demand for secure energy. At the same time, we will continue to transform our Downstream, Renewables and Energy Solutions businesses.

[B] Scenarios are not expressions or the basis of Shell’s strategy, operating plans, or financial statements. They are not the business plan, nor are they intended to be predictions of likely future events or outcomes, and they do not necessarily reflect the thinking or behaviour of the business.

We believe Shell has an important role to play in the evolving energy system. We provide the oil and gas people need today, while helping to build the energy system of the future, with low-carbon energy products and solutions.

Today, Shell has around $20 billion of our capital employed ^[C] across lower-carbon platforms, including power (both gas-fired and from renewable energy), low-carbon fuels, hydrogen, and carbon capture and storage (CCS). ^[D]

We believe a range of technologies will be needed to decarbonise the energy system, including low-carbon fuels, hydrogen, and CCS. We are investing in low-carbon energy projects where we have competitive strengths and are supported by proven technology, customer demand and government policies.

Examples of Shell’s low-carbon products and services include:

• Holland Hydrogen I, one of Europe’s largest renewable hydrogen plants (when it becomes operational);
• More than 80,000 electric vehicle (EV) charge points globally;
• Supplying close to 20% of sustainable aviation fuel, a biofuel, in North America and Europe;
• Nature Energy, one of the largest producers of biogas in Europe; and
• Northern Lights, a CCS initiative in Norway, the world’s first commercial project to deliver cross-border carbon transport and storage as a service.

With global demand for energy increasing, coupled with the urgent challenge of climate change, we will continue to focus on our strategy to deliver more value with less emissions.

[C] Non-GAAP measure.

[D] Gas is a lower-carbon alternative to coal in power generation.

• Many forecasts show that the world needs more natural gas. Gas, especially in the form of LNG, is versatile, flexible and reliable because it can be shipped to different markets at different times.
• LNG also supports the global drive for decarbonisation as a lower-carbon alternative to coal for industry and power generation, and to diesel and fuel oil for heavy-duty transport and shipping.
• As Shell outlined in March 2026 (PDF, 24 MB)
  , LNG is the fastest-growing energy source after non-hydro renewables, making up more than half of overall natural demand growth to 2040, driven by Asia, which represents 70% of the growth.
• Today, LNG represents 14% of global natural gas supply, equal to just over 3% of primary energy supply. We expect that figure to increase to 4% by 2040 and remain around that level in 2050.

Shell sees natural gas as a stabilising force in the energy system, supporting energy security as other sources scale and fluctuate. It can provide flexibility and security of supply, as well as a lower-carbon alternative to coal for industry and power.

LNG also has the potential to replace diesel and fuel oil in heavy-duty road transport and shipping.

• Globally, on average, the life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions intensity of electricity produced from LNG is around 40% lower than for electricity produced from coal, accounting for all emissions from gas extraction to use, according to the International Energy Agency.
• Shell also continues to consider alternative LNG pathways, including bio-LNG and synthetic LNG, while remaining focused on reducing emissions from operations through efficiency improvements, electrification and the deployment of carbon capture and storage.
• At the same time, LNG supports the rapid growth of renewable energy, providing flexible and secure electricity supplies that can be adjusted in line with seasonal demand and the weather-related variability of wind and solar power.

These are some of the reasons why we believe that supplying LNG will be the biggest contribution we will make to the energy transition over the next decade.

• According to Shell’s latest scenarios^[E], the rapid growth of renewable power continues, driven by solar photovoltaic with battery storage in lower-latitude countries and wind in northern latitudes. Low-carbon fuels are set to expand and diversify, complementing electrification and renewables. The scale and application of low-carbon fuels depend on policy ambition, technology breakthroughs and security priorities.
• Shell allocates our capital to the most attractive low-carbon projects and opportunities. We are focusing on carbon capture and storage (CCS), hydrogen and biofuels for hard-to-decarbonise sectors, as well as opportunities for trading renewable power to provide more renewable power solutions to customers.
• This approach will support our climate-related targets and ambition, and position us for growth in hydrogen and CCS. For example:
  • Our Northern Lights CCS project (Shell interest 33.3%) in Norway signed contracts in 2023 to transport and safely store 1.2 million tonnes of CO₂ a year. The CO₂ will be shipped from two of Ørsted’s biomass power plants in Denmark and a Yara ammonia and fertiliser plant in the Netherlands. It will then be stored 2,600 metres below the seabed in the North Sea.
  • Holland Hydrogen I, one of Europe’s largest renewable hydrogen plants, will provide low-carbon fuels to the Shell Energy and Chemicals Park Rotterdam.

[E] Scenarios are not expressions or the basis of Shell’s strategy, operating plans, or financial statements. They are not the business plan, nor are they intended to be predictions of likely future events or outcomes, and they do not necessarily reflect the thinking or behaviour of the business.

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Shell’s net carbon intensity

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Shell’s net-zero emissions target

Shell’s operating plan and outlook are forecasted for a three-year period and ten-year period, respectively, and are updated every year. They reflect the current economic environment and what we can reasonably expect to see over the next three and ten years. Accordingly, the outlook reflects our combined Scope 1 and 2 target, NCI target and our oil products ambition over the next ten years. However, Shell’s operating plan and outlook cannot reflect our 2050 net-zero emissions target, as this target is outside our planning period. Such future operating plans and outlooks could include changes to our portfolio, efficiency improvements and the use of carbon capture and storage and carbon credits. In the future, as society moves towards net-zero emissions, we expect Shell’s operating plans and outlooks to reflect this movement. However, if society is not net zero in 2050, as of today, there would be significant risk that Shell may not meet this target.

Forward-Looking non-GAAP measures

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