The Energy Security Scenarios

Title: 1399 SHE - Energy Security Scenarios HERO 230220 v1
Duration: 5:20 minutes

Description:
A video about Energy Security Scenarios for the future.

1399 SHE - Energy Security Scenarios HERO 230220 v1 Transcript

[Background music plays]

Bright, uplifting music, sirens in the distance become audible / music shifts to a more tense composition

[Text displays]

When change comes,

scenario thinking

can help us find ways forward…

[Sound effect]

Static

[Video footage]

Flickering transition to still shot of Ukrainian sniper in a war zone, holding his weapon across his arms and looking at the camera

Rapid snapshots of still images:

Destruction in Ukraine / a fiery inferno / a road with metal crosses as roadblocks / a long barbed fence stretching into the distance / digital trading screen / gas ring lighting on a hob / a hand turns up a thermostat / a group of protestors holding Ukraine and Euro flags / a brick wall with ‘Food BANK!’ graffiti / a hand picking up a tin of food / a backpacker at a protest / packing a food parcel / barbed wire fence / a protestor hand raised / a woman with an umbrella wading through thigh-deep flood waters / Waves crashing against a road-bridge

Short video segments:

A wide transport bridge across a river in a city / drone footage of an American city / sky scrapers / the River Thames and city / a man stands hands on hips looking down at the bright lights of a city at night / A wind turbine spins above a foggy forest

[Male voiceover]

When Russia invaded Ukraine the global agenda changed. The need for security, border security, economic security, energy security, was suddenly dominant, even overtaking climate change. But global temperatures are still rising, so our latest scenarios explore some critical questions. Can a world desperate for immediate security also meet the long term challenge of climate change? Will competition between nations accelerate action, or create extra barriers? And what could the world do to do much better?

[Text displays]

The Energy

Security Scenarios

[Background music plays]

Uplifting music

[Video footage]

Still image:

A protestor with his arm in the air

Short video segments:

Drone flyover across a protest in a park / Fists and hands held in the air / A wide road through green forests leading to a city.

Still image:

Cyclists in Europe

Short video segments:

Wind and solar farm / Shipping tanker on the open water / oil fields in the desert / Drone image of rooftops in city fitted with solar panels / large industrial plant with bright clean lights / Solar and wind power farm / huge waves crashing against a dam / shipping transport lanes on a river / a scientist works in a sterile environment / timelapse of muddy crossroads from above

Still images:

Narrow street in Asia with Tuktuk and motorbikes / traffic backed up on a large road / coloured lines far above a city, depicting air traffic routes

[Male voiceover]

The scramble for energy security has created divisions. Some countries including many in Europe are wealthy enough to deal with price shocks, but must compete to secure their energy supply. Some like the USA and the UAE have strong domestic energy resources, but face political challenges on price. China is able to handle energy disruption because it’s both wealthy and dynamic, and a fourth group of countries has neither the resources nor the wealth to be truly resilient.

[Text displays]

Green Dream

Innovation Wins

Great Wall of Change

Surfers

[Video footage]

Screen split into quarters, ‘Green Dream’, wind turbines, ‘Innovation Wins’, solar panels on buildings, ‘Great Wall of Change‘, a policeman stands beside a stone wall with a turbulent sky, ‘Surfers’, aeroplane route lines above a city.

Transition to background of clouds in the sky

[Male voiceover]

By studying how these four groups could interact, we created two scenarios…

[Text displays]

Two Scenarios

Two possible futures

Archipelagos

Sky 2050

[Male voiceover]

… two possible futures, Archipelagos and Sky 2050.

[Video footage]

Close up of solar panels shining in the morning light / A wind turbine blade with fields below / ships sailing on the sea with an oil rig in the distance

[Male voiceover]

Archipelagos follows how today’s pressures could play out to the end of the century.

[Text displays]

Archipelagos

[Video footage]

Timelapse of factories with two chimneys pumping emissions into the atmosphere / solar panels tilting to the angle of the sun / drone footage of banks of solar panels in the desert / spinning wind turbines rising out of the ocean / spinning wind turbine above grassy field / timelapse of clouds passing across cracked dry mud / satellite image of desert coastlines

[Male voiceover]

National interest remains key and renewables are mainly seen as a way to improve energy security. By the end of the century net zero emissions is within sight, but action is too slow and the global temperature rise reaches 2.2 degrees.

[Text displays]

1.2° C

2.2° C

[Video footage]

Rapid video segments:

Static transition / bleached coral in the sea / grassland burning / crops withered and dead in rows / wooden water irrigation channels dry and dusty / Hilly ground covered with solar panels / Solar panels reflecting the blue skies

[Male voiceover]

The second possible future, Sky 2050 shows just how fast the world must move to meet the goal of the Paris Agreement.

[Text displays]

Sky 2050

[Video footage]

Rapid video segments:

Placard reading ‘Winter is not coming’ / A child on his parent’s shoulder beside a placard / Banner reading ‘SOS’ with a melting planet earth / A crowd of people walking down a road in protest / A man with a loudspeaker at a protest / wind turbines spinning in the sea at sunset

Still images:

An engineer reads a clipboard beside electromagnet / huge digging machine in a quarry / engineer holding up a large circular metal component / train transporting streamlined technology / An engineer abseils down to maintain a wind turbine / engineers stand on top of ocean wind turbine

[Male voiceover]

Global climate security becomes the primary concern, nations race to switch to cleaner energy and a competitive landscape emerges for technology, minerals and manufacturing capacity. Competition drives rapid change and the race ensures global warming is way below 1.5 degrees by 2100.

[Text displays]

1.2° C

1.2° C

[Video footage]

Short video segments:

Timelapse of a hilly rainforest / lush green forests and birdsong / timelapse of curved raised motorways – spaghetti junction / factory piping with ‘CO₂’ sticker attached / aerial shot of curved meandering river in the dense green rainforest / Brown grasslands and an oil rig in the distance partially obscured by fog

[Male voiceover]

In both scenarios we see similar decarbonisation trends, but with two big differences. First, the speed of change. Second how effectively the world stores away carbon. Sky 2050 consistently moves faster. In both possible futures fossil fuels decline, but while the drop is steep in Sky 2050, it’s less dramatic in Archipelagos.

[Text / Graph displays]

Fossil fuels demand

Fraction of total primary energy, %

[Video footage]

Leaves rustle in the wind below a blue sky

[Male voiceover]

In Sky 2050 solar becomes the most important energy source in 2045, in Archipelagos 2065.

[Text / Graph displays]

Solar PV

Fraction of total primary energy, %

[Video footage]

Still images:

Blue train with H2 Hydrogen on the side / LH2 boat on the ocean

Short video segments:

Timelapse of clouds above a city as the sky darkens

[Male voiceover]

And with hydrogen it trolls behind by 25 years. This slower pace of change is a big reason why by 2100 the world has released 1.5 trillion tonnes more carbon dioxide in one future compared to the other.

[Text / Graph displays]

Carbon gap

Cumulative CO₂ emissions from 2020, Gt

[Video footage]

Still image:

Two young children stand on the grass looking at wind turbines

Short video segments:

Clouds pass across a blue sky

Still images:

A river runs through a lush jungle beside a small road / a gardener’s muddy hands holding a plants / large metal cylinder in industrial plant / industrial plant with pipes and metal stairwells / White piping with ‘CO₂ TO PIPELINE’ sticker / Futuristic image of brightly coloured cars on a shining road through the green forest

[Male voiceover]

But the biggest reason for the gap is something else, it is that the Sky 2050 world does much more to capture CO₂ before it reaches the atmosphere, much more to maximise the CO₂ stored in plants and ecosystems, and much more to establish an industry that strips CO₂ from the air and puts it in deep geological storage, or even turns CO₂ into fuel.

[Text displays]

Archipelagos

Sky 2050

[Video footage]

Split screen – Archipelagos with a vibrant green dome in the desert / Sky 2050 with solar panels covering green hillsides

Split screen – Archipelagos with a deserted, run down city / Sky 2050 with futuristic automated cars and clean river beside the road / Overhead image of a city of the future with roads and trees / Futuristic helicopter flies over the coastline

[Male voiceover]

Two scenarios, two possibles, but how could the world bridge the gap? How could it move closer to a Sky 2050 future than an Archipelagos one?

[Text displays]

How could the world bridge the gap?

How could it move closer to a Sky 2050 future?

[Video footage]

Short video segments:

National flags wave in the wind against a blue sky / Arrows pointing upwards with text written ‘350BAR HYDROGEN FUELING ONLY’ and ‘700BAR HYDROGEN FUELING ONLY’

Still shot: A blue car parked beside a solar powered refuelling station

Short video segments:

A spinning green globe of the earth with a water texture, reflecting the green forest behind / Panning shot up metal girders of a building in construction, overlooking a city / the open sea and the sun behind clouds / A green natural area with buildings in the distance / A lush pine forest and river / spinning wind turbines in the ocean / banks of solar panels in the desert / spinning wind turbine above a forest in dense fog

Still images:

A train stopped at a clean empty station / H2 gas cannister attached to a truck at refuelling station / Hydrogen powered aeroplane in the sky with ‘HYDROGEN H2’ ‘ZERO EMISSION’ painted on the side / Reflected clouds off angular mirrored surface / a man and a woman’s hands clasping each other / a man and woman’s hands clasping each other / a child holding onto a woman’s fingers / a young girl and her sister being led through green fields by an adult hand, the girl looks up with a smile

[Male voiceover]

An important part of the answer is government policy, which can accelerate technological advances, amplify action and drive low carbon choices. All governments have made promises known as NDCs as part of the Paris Agreement. They are due to start updating them. Getting close to Sky 2050 means delivering on some much bigger pledges. The message from the energy security scenarios is clear, despite the world security fears it is decarbonizing but needs to move much more quickly and everyone will be much more secure if it does.

[Video footage]

Shell logo appears onscreen.

[Text displays]

Shell.com/scenarios

[Text displays]

The Energy Security Scenarios

WARNING – UNCERTAINTIES AHEAD: Shell’s scenarios are not intended to be projections or forecasts of the future. Shell’s scenarios, including the scenarios contained in this film, are not Shell’s strategy or business plan. They are designed to stretch management to consider even events that may only be remotely possible. Scenarios, therefore, are not intended to be predictions of likely future events or outcomes and investors should not rely on them when making an investment decision with regard to Shell plc securities. When developing Shell’s strategy, our scenarios are one of many variables that we consider. Ultimately, whether society meets its goal to decarbonise is not within Shell’s control, only governments can create the framework necessary for society to meet the Paris Agreement’s goals. The Sky 2050 scenario is a normative scenario, which means we assume that society meets the most ambitious goal of the Paris Agreement: limiting the increase in global average temperatures to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels this century and then we work back in presenting how this may occur. Our assumptions, for the Sky 2050 are based on what we believe are technically possible as of today and not necessarily plausible. Our Archipelagos scenario is an explorative scenario, which means we do not assume the final outcome rather we use plausible assumptions based on the data to determine what we believe will occur in the future. Of course, there is a range of possible paths in detail that society could take to achieve this goal. Although achieving the goal of the Paris Agreement and the future depicted in Sky 2050 while maintaining a growing global economy will be extremely challenging, today there is still a technically possible path. However, we believe the window for success is quickly closing.

The companies in which Shell plc directly and indirectly owns investments are separate legal entities. In this film “Shell”, “Shell Group” and “Group” are sometimes used for convenience where references are made to Shell plc and its subsidiaries in general or to those who work for them. These terms are also used where no useful purpose is served by identifying the particular entity or entities. “Subsidiaries”, “Shell subsidiaries” as used in this film refer to entities over which Shell plc either directly or indirectly has control. Entities and unincorporated arrangements over which Shell has joint control are generally referred to as “joint ventures” and “joint operations”, respectively. “Joint ventures” and “joint operations” are collectively referred to as “joint arrangements.” Entities of which Shell has significant influence but neither control nor joint control are referred to as “associates”. The term “Shell interest” is used for convenience to indicate the direct and/or indirect ownership interest held by Shell in an entity or unincorporated joint arrangement, after exclusion of all third-party interest.

This film contains the forward-looking statements (within the meaning of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995) concerning the financial condition, results of operations and business of Shell. All statements other than statements of historical fact are, or may be deemed to be, forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are statements of future expectations that are based on management’s current expectations and assumptions and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results, performance or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in these statements. Forward-looking statements include, among other things, statements concerning the potential exposure of Shell to market risks and statements expressing management’s expectations, beliefs, estimates, forecasts, projections and assumptions. These forward-looking statements are identified by their use of terms and phrases such as “aim”, “ambition”, “anticipate”, “believe”, “could”, “estimate”, “expect, “goals”, “intend”, “may”, “milestones”, “objectives”, “outlook”, “plan”, “probably”, “project”, “risks”, “schedule”, “seek”, “should”, “target”, “will” and similar terms and phrases. There are a number of factors that could affect the future operations of Shell and could cause those results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements included in this film, including (without limitation): (a) price fluctuations in crude oil and natural gas; (b) changes in demand for Shell’s products; (c) currency fluctuations; (d) drilling and production results; (e) reserves estimates; (f) loss of market share and industry competition; (g) environmental and physical risks; (h) risks associated with the identification of suitable potential acquisition properties and targets, and successful negotiation and completion of such transactions; (i) the risk of doing business in developing countries and countries subject to international sanctions; (j) legislative, judicial, fiscal and regulatory developments including regulatory measures addressing climate change; (k) economic and financial market conditions in various countries and regions; (l) political risks, including the risks of expropriation and renegotiation of the terms of contracts with government entities, delays or advancements in the approval of projects and delays in the reimbursement for shared costs; (m) risks associated with the impact of pandemics, such as the COVID-19 (Coronavirus) outbreak; and (n) changes in trading conditions. No assurance is provided that future dividend payments will match or exceed previous dividend payments. All forward-looking statements contained in this film are expressly qualified in their entirety by the cautionary statements contained or referred to in this section. Readers should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Additional risk factors that may affect future results are contained in Shell plc’s Form 20-D for the year ended December 31, 2022 (available at www.shell.com/investor and www.sec.gov

). These risk factors also expressly qualify all forward-looking statements contained in this film and should be considered by the reader. Each forward-looking statement speaks only as of the data of this film, 21 March, 2023. Neither Shell plc nor any of its subsidiaries undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statement as a result of new information, future events or other information. In light of these risks, results could differ materially from those sates, implied or inferred from the forward-looking statements contained in this film.