Progress on Capital Markets Day 2025 targets
At its Capital Markets Day held in March 2025, Shell outlined its business targets.
Definitions & Price assumptions
| Metric | Definition |
|---|---|
| Structural Cost Reductions | Structural cost reductions describe decreases in underlying operating expenses as a result of operational efficiencies, divestments, workforce reductions and other cost-saving measures that are expected to be sustainable compared with 2022 levels. The total change between periods in underlying operating expenses will reflect both structural cost reductions and other changes in spend, including market factors, such as inflation and foreign exchange impacts, as well as changes in activity levels and costs associated with new operations. Estimates of cumulative annual structural cost reduction may be revised depending on whether cost reductions realised in prior periods are determined to be sustainable compared to 2022 levels. Structural cost reductions are stewarded internally to support management’s oversight of spending over time. 2028 target reflects annualised saving achieved by end-2028. |
| Normalised FCF (nFCF) | Price-normalised Organic Free cash flow adjusted for Working capital movements, cash flow from derivatives. |
| Normalised FCF (nFCF) per share | Price-normalised Organic Free cash flow adjusted for Working capital movements, cash flow from derivatives, divided by shares outstanding at the end of the period. The outstanding number of shares excludes shares held in trust. |
| Year | Assumptions |
| 2024 – price adjusted | $70/bbl Brent, $4/MMBtu Henry Hub (and related gas markers), and historic average chemical and refining margins. |
| 2028 / 2030 / 2035 projections | $70/bbl Brent and $4/MMBtu Henry Hub (both real 2024), indicative chemical margins of $150 to $250 per tonne (nominal) and indicative refining margins of $6 to $9 per barrel (nominal). |
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Shareholder distributions 40-50% of CFFO through the cycle
The chart displays shareholder distributions as a percentage of cash flow from operations (CFFO) for 2023, 2024, and 2025. The chart is colour-coded as follows: yellow bars for actuals and dotted grey lines for target ranges. The percentages shown at the top of each bar are 42% for 2023, 41% for 2024, and 52% for 2025. Target range for 2023 and 2024 is 30-40% and 40-50% for 2025, which are shown in dotted grey lines crossing bars are the specified intervals.
Cash capex $20-22 billion per year 2025-2028
The chart shows Shell’s cash capital expenditure over time, measured in billions of US dollars. The bars are colour-coded as follows: yellow bars for actuals and dotted grey lines for targets. Cash capex was approximately $24 billion in 2023 and $21 billion in 2024. The target range for 2023-2024 is $22–25 billion per year. From 2025 onward, cash capex range is $20–22 billion per year for the period 2025 to 2028. The 2025 bar shown at approximately $21 billion.
Structural cost reduction of $5-7 billion by end-2028
The chart displays cumulative structural cost reduction in billions of US dollars for 2023–2024, and 2023–25, with a long-term target for 2023–28. Bars are yellow for actuals and grey for targets. The values shown are $3.1 billion for 2023–2024, and $5.1 billion for 2023-25, with an overall target of $5–7 billion for 2023–28.
Price-normalised FCF growth/share >10% p.a. through 2030
The chart displays price-normalised free cash flow (FCF) growth per share in dollars for 2024, 2025 and a target for 2030. Bars are yellow for actuals and grey for targets. Dotted grey line has been used to show expected growth over time. The values shown at the top of each bar are $4.4/share for 2024, and $4.6/share for 2025, with the dotted line indicating a goal of more than 10% annual growth through 2030.
Last updated on February 5, 2026.
Further details on progress against Capital Markets Day 2025 targets will be published on March 12, 2026, as part of the 2025 Annual Report publication.