Shell has been a pioneer in developing scenarios to explore the future and deepen its strategic thinking for almost 50 years.
We have been developing possible visions of the future since the 1970s, helping generations of Shell leaders explore ways forward and make better decisions. Shell Scenarios ask “what if?” questions encouraging leaders to consider events that may only be remote possibilities, and stretch their thinking. Our scenarios also help governments, academia and business in understanding possibilities and uncertainties ahead.
In this section
The Sky Scenario illustrates a technically possible, but challenging pathway for society to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement.
How could the world meet future energy demand while reducing net carbon emissions to zero?
Our New Lens Scenarios explore two possible ways the 21st century could unfold, with dramatically different implications for society and energy.
We analysed six city archetypes to better understand the changing world and created scenarios for how individual cities might evolve and become more efficient.
The Shell Scenarios team brings together experts from an array of disciplines to understand versions of the future.
Shell Scenarios since the 1970s have helped us understand how the world and its energy system could evolve in decades to come.
Two of the key long-term models of the world’s energy system developed by the Shell Scenarios Team.
Tackling transport emissions
Shell worked with the New York Times to illustrate how cleaner transportation fits into Shell’s Sky Scenario – a challenging, possible pathway for the world to meet the aims of the Paris Agreement.
Energy resources are spread across the planet
The Global Energy Resource database is our tool for exploring the world’s fossil and renewable energy resources. Do you know how energy resources are distributed around the world?
Peaceful streets or buzzing blocks?
House or High-rise? Take the Future Cities quiz and match yourself to a global city!
Find out how the World Energy Model can explore different plausible future energy scenarios all the way to the year 2100.
Find out how the Scenarios team explores future oil and gas production potential to 2100.
Our tool for exploring how the world’s fossil and renewable energy resources are distributed – now and in future.
A selection of short films introduce and explain the Shell Scenarios over the years, and the work of our Scenarios team.