Capital Markets Day 2025

Title: Shell Capital Markets Day 2025 _ Shell Investment Case and Q&A
Duration: 01:19:20
Description: Video footage of the presentation and Q&A session for the Shell Capital Markets Day 2025
[Sweeping, calm music plays in the background.]
[Video Footage]
Grey text sits on a white background which ripples gently with the outline of the Shell logo.
[Text Displays]
Shell Capital Markets Day 2025. Shell plc. 25th March 2025.
[Video Footage]
The screen fades to reveal Mohammed Hamid, wearing a suit and speaking from a podium which has NYSE written on it.
MOHAMMED HAMID:
Welcome, everyone, to Shell's 2025 Capital Markets Day.
[Video Footage]
A yellow and white text box swipes in from the bottom-left corner of the screen.
[Text Displays]
Mohammed Hamid
EVP IR and Strategic Planning, Shell
MOHAMMED HAMID:
I'm Mohammed Hamid, Executive Vice President for Investor Relations and Strategic Planning. It's wonderful to see so many familiar faces in the audience and some new ones as well. And a warm welcome…
[Video Footage]
Mohammed gestures towards the camera.
MOHAMMED HAMID: …to those of you who are joining us from the live stream. I'll start by outlining the run of the day. First, our CEO…
[Video Footage]
The screen changes to a split screen view, with Mohammed speaking from the podium on the left, and the Capital Markets Day 2025 Overview slideshow on the right, including the agenda for the day’s events and images of Wael Sawan and Sinead Gorman, Today’s Speakers.
[Text Displays]
Capital Markets Day 2025
Overview
[Video Footage]
On the left side of the slide is the day’s agenda.
[Text Displays]
Agenda
9:00 – 9:10 Welcome
AM Mohammed Hamid – EVP Investor Relations & Strategic Planning
9:10 – 10:30 Shell investment case and Q&A
AM Wael Sawan – Chief Executive Officer
Sinead Gorman – Chief Financial Officer
10:30 – 10:45 Break
AM
10:45 – 12:15 Business deep dives and Q&A
AM/PM Integrated Gas and Upstream
Downstream and Renewables & Energy Solutions
12:30 – 13:30 Lunch
PM
[Video Footage]
On the right side of the slide are photos of Today’s Speakers Wael Sawan and Sinead Gorman.
[Text Displays]
Today’s Speakers
Wael Sawan
Chief Executive Officer
Sinead Gorman
Chief Financial Officer
MOHAMMED HAMID:
…Wael Sawan and our CFO Sinead Gorman will kick off with an overview of the Shell investment case, followed by Q&A. After that, we'll have a short break and when we come back, Wael and Sinead will take a deeper look at our businesses followed by another Q&A session. And then, for those of you who are here with us in New York, we will be joined by some key business leaders who we have in the audience with us today.
[Video Footage]
The right-hand side of the screen changes, as the Agenda is replaced by a Cautionary note.
[Text Displays]
Capital Markets Day 2025
Cautionary Note
The companies in which Shell plc directly and indirectly owns investments are separate legal entities. In this content “Shell”, “Shell Group” and “Group” are sometimes used for convenience to reference Shell plc and its subsidiaries in general. Likewise, the words “we”, “us” and “our” are also used to refer to Shell plc and its subsidiaries in general or to those who work for them. These terms are also used where no useful purpose is served by identifying the particular entity or entities. ‘‘Subsidiaries’’, “Shell subsidiaries” and “Shell companies” as used in this content refer to entities over which Shell plc either directly or indirectly has control. The terms “joint venture”, “joint operations”, “joint arrangements”, and “associates” may also be used to refer to a commercial arrangement in which Shell has a direct or indirect ownership interest with one or more parties. The term “Shell interest” is used for convenience to indicate the direct and/or indirect ownership interest held by Shell in an entity or unincorporated joint arrangement, after exclusion of all third-party interest.
This content contains forward-looking statements (within the meaning of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995) concerning the financial condition, results of operations and businesses of Shell. All statements other than statements of historical fact are, or may be deemed to be, forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are statements of future expectations that are based on management’s current expectations and assumptions and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results, performance or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in these statements. Forward-looking statements include, among other things, statements concerning the potential exposure of Shell to market risks and statements expressing management’s expectations, beliefs, estimates, forecasts, projections and assumptions. These forward-looking statements are identified by their use of terms and phrases such as “aim”; “ambition”; ‘‘anticipate’’; “aspire”, “aspiration”, ‘‘believe’’; “commit”; “commitment”; ‘‘could’’; “desire”; ‘‘estimate’’; ‘‘expect’’; ‘‘goals’’; ‘‘intend’’; ‘‘may’’; “milestones”; ‘‘objectives’’; ‘‘outlook’’; ‘‘plan’’; ‘‘probably’’; ‘‘project’’; ‘‘risks’’; “schedule”; ‘‘seek’’; ‘‘should’’; ‘‘target’’; “vision”; ‘‘will’’; “would” and similar terms and phrases. There are a number of factors that could affect the future operations of Shell and could cause those results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements included in this content, including (without limitation): (a) price fluctuations in crude oil and natural gas; (b) changes in demand for Shell’s products; (c) currency fluctuations; (d) drilling and production results; (e) reserves estimates; (f) loss of market share and industry competition; (g) environmental and physical risks, including climate change; (h) risks associated with the identification of suitable potential acquisition properties and targets, and successful negotiation and completion of such transactions; (i) the risk of doing business in developing countries and countries subject to international sanctions; (j) legislative, judicial, fiscal and regulatory developments including tariffs and regulatory measures addressing climate change; (k) economic and financial market conditions in various countries and regions; (l) political risks, including the risks of expropriation and renegotiation of the terms of contracts with governmental entities, delays or advancements in the approval of projects and delays in the reimbursement for shared costs; (m) risks associated with the impact of pandemics, regional conflicts, such as the Russia-Ukraine war and the conflict in the Middle East, and a significant cyber security, data privacy or IT incident; (n) the pace of the energy transition; and (o) changes in trading conditions. No assurance is provided that future dividend payments will match or exceed previous dividend payments. All forward-looking statements contained in this content are expressly qualified in their entirety by the cautionary statements contained or referred to in this section. Readers should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Additional risk factors that may affect future results are contained in Shell plc’s Form 20-F for the year ended December 31, 2024 (available at www.shell.com/investors/news-and-filings/sec-filings.html and www.sec.gov). These risk factors also expressly qualify all forward-looking statements contained in this content and should be considered by the reader. Each forward-looking statement speaks only as of the date of this content, March 25, 2025. Neither Shell plc nor any of its subsidiaries undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statement as a result of new information, future events or other information. In light of these risks, results could differ materially from those stated, implied or inferred from the forward-looking statements contained in this content.
Also, in this content we may refer to Shell’s “net carbon intensity” (NCI), which includes Shell’s carbon emissions from the production of our energy products, our suppliers’ carbon emissions in supplying energy for that production and our customers’ carbon emissions associated with their use of the energy products we sell. Shell’s NCI also includes the emissions associated with the production and use of energy products produced by others which Shell purchases for resale. Shell only controls its own emissions. The use of the terms Shell’s “net carbon intensity” or NCI is for convenience only and not intended to suggest these emissions are those of Shell plc or its subsidiaries.
Shell’s operating plan and outlook are forecasted for a three-year period and ten-year period, respectively, and are updated every year. They reflect the current economic environment and what we can reasonably expect to see over the next three and ten years. Accordingly, the outlook reflects our Scope 1, Scope 2 and NCI targets over the next ten years. However, Shell’s operating plan and outlook cannot reflect our 2050 net-zero emissions target, as this target is outside our planning period. Such future operating plans and outlooks could include changes to our portfolio, efficiency improvements and the use of carbon capture and storage and carbon credits. In the future, as society moves towards net-zero emissions, we expect Shell’s operating plans and outlooks to reflect this movement. However, if society is not net zero in 2050, as of today, there would be significant risk that Shell may not meet this target.
This content may contain certain forward-looking non-GAAP measures such as adjusted earnings and divestments. We are unable to provide a reconciliation of these forward-looking non-GAAP measures to the most comparable GAAP financial measures because certain information needed to reconcile those non-GAAP measures to the most comparable GAAP financial measures is dependent on future events some of which are outside the control of Shell, such as oil and gas prices, interest rates and exchange rates. Moreover, estimating such GAAP measures with the required precision necessary to provide a meaningful reconciliation is extremely difficult and could not be accomplished without unreasonable effort. Non-GAAP measures in respect of future periods which cannot be reconciled to the most comparable GAAP financial measure are calculated in a manner which is consistent with the accounting policies applied in Shell plc’s consolidated financial statements. See the document named “Comparable GAAP measures and non-GAAP measures reconciliation” available on our Capital Markets Day 2025 page on shell.com for presentation of the most comparable GAAP measures, definitions and further details of historic non-GAAP measures and other metrics used throughout this content.
The information presented in this content do not reflect IFRS 18, Presentation and Disclosure in Financial Statements (“IFRS 18”), which will be effective from reporting periods beginning on or after January 1, 2027. IFRS 18 will have no impact on recognition and measurement. From Shell's initial impact assessment, it has concluded that the impact will be limited to disclosure and presentation in the Consolidated Financial Statements. The primary change will be that the share of profit from joint ventures and associates will be classified in the Consolidated Statement of Income under the investing category (income generated by the investment) instead of the operating category. As a result of this change, the dividends received from joint ventures and associates will be reclassified in the Consolidated Statement of Cash Flows from cash flow from operating activities to cash flow from investing activities.
The contents of websites referred to in this content do not form part of this content.
We may have used certain terms, such as resources, in this content that the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) strictly prohibits us from including in our filings with the SEC. Investors are urged to consider closely the disclosure in our Form 20-F, File No 1-32575, available on the SEC website www.sec.gov
MOHAMMED HAMID:
But, before we get started on some of the content, please note…
[Video Footage]
The view changes from split screen to focus only on the Cautionary note.
MOHAMMED HAMID:
…the cautionary statement behind me on screen. And I know many of you are familiar with this. It is also available in full online.
[Video Footage]
The Cautionary note fades and we once again see Mohammed speaking from the podium.
MOHAMMED HAMID:
And before Wael and Sinead begin, we'd like to take a moment to play a short video that nicely summarises our journey to date. For those of you who are more familiar with the Shell story, you will notice a phrase, and some would call it a promise from the past that will be key to our journey going forward. And with that, let's play the video. Thank you.
[Video Footage]
The view changes to display the video.
[Sounds of New York traffic faintly in the background as sweeping strings music plays.]
[Video Footage]
Queensboro Bridge in the foreground and an illuminated New York skyline in the evening.
[Video Footage]
A deep-sea oil rig, illuminated by many lights against an evening sky.
NARRATOR:
There's a global company…
[Video Footage]
Two Shell logos reflected in the bonnet of a car.
[Video Footage]
As day transitions to night, the windows of a glass office building are illuminated from within by internal lights, sweeping from left to right and revealing the office spaces inside.
NARRATOR:
…that's connected energy to people…
[Video Footage]
Now we see a densely populated street from down near ground level as many people mill about. The street disappears and is replaced by a Shell petrol station illuminated against a dark background.
NARRATOR:
…for over a century…
[Video Footage]
The image focuses in on the upper corner of the petrol station where the Shell logo is illuminated.
NARRATOR:
…delivering on a lasting promise…
[Video Footage]
The image changes to show an aerial view of a processing plant, sweeping from right to left. Multiple images of oil rigs out at sea, the third of which is surrounded by a variety ocean vessels.
NARRATOR:
You can be sure of Shell…
[Video Footage]
A bright outline of the Shell logo appears over the image of the oil rig in the ocean, with the outline traced by a bright beams of light, moving clockwise. The Shell logo outline rushes towards the camera and is replaced by old television footage showing a title card for the company.
[Text Displays]
ROYAL DUTCH PETROLEUM COMPANY. THE “SHELL” TRANSPORT & TRADING CO. LIMITED.
NARRATOR:
Innovation, it's been in our DNA from day one.
[Video Footage]
An older film plays showing images of Shell’s history as a company, including factory equipment, employees and a large ocean vessel. A film of a large metal structure being transported across water.
NARRATOR:
Through pioneering technology…
[Video Footage]
An image of an older version of the Shell logo on a sign.
NARRATOR:
…we've made energising the world our business.
[Video Footage]
An animation of the Shell logo in a cartoon format with a face in the middle of the logo and legs and arms extending from the sides. A video showing a newer version of the Shell logo and the pump at a petrol station being replaced on its holder by a hand.
[Video Footage]
A black and white video showing Shell throughout the years, starting with an oil tanker in 1892.
NARRATOR:
Commissioning the first oil tanker passing through the Suez Canal.
[Video Footage]
A shot of the same oil tanker from the side.
[Video Footage]
The image transitions and we see a man tending to a propellor-driven plane in 1912.
NARRATOR:
Fuelling the first-ever transatlantic flight.
[Video Footage]
A side-on view of the same plane, with a car stationary next to it, being driven by a man in a hat.
NARRATOR:
Delivering the first shipment…
[Video Footage]
A sailor standing on an observation deck in 1964. A sailor climbs a ladder from one part of the deck to another.
NARRATOR:
…of liquefied natural gas by sea.
[Video Footage]
The image transitions to show the United States rocket launch in 1968.
NARRATOR:
And helping to guide the first astronauts to the moon.
[Video Footage]
A more modern, colour video of a large ship tethered to a dock.
NARRATOR:
Providing new forms of reliable energy…
[Video Footage]
An animation of planet Earth with a number of locations marked in yellow and with an image of an oil tanker in a circle hovering above the location indicators.
NARRATOR:
…to a growing customer base…
[Video Footage]
A scientist wearing glasses, and laboratory goggles is looking towards camera, wearing a white lab coat.
NARRATOR:
…with pride…
[Video Footage]
A female Shell employee talks with a man in a work jumpsuit on the forecourt of a petrol station.
NARRATOR:
…passion…
[Video Footage]
Three men wearing safety gear shake hands on an industrial site with cranes in the background.
NARRATOR:
and commitment.
[Video Footage]
Dark, storm clouds roll across the sky.
NARRATOR:
And through challenging times…
[Video Footage]
The ocean crashes against the pipes of an oil rig.
NARRATOR:
…Shell has always been there for its customers…
[Video Footage]
Vehicles drive into and out of a Shell petrol station. A Shell tanker drives off the forecourt, the Shell logo emblazoned on its side.
NARRATOR:
…keeping them moving…
[Video Footage]
A gas stovetop ignites. A hand reaches out to a digital thermostat to adjust the temperature.
NARRATOR:
…keeping them warm…
[Video Footage]
A lightbulb turns on. The image zooms out to show planet Earth on the night-time side, with many countries illuminated by lights.
NARRATOR:
…keeping them bright. But, that's only part of our story.
[Video Footage]
The image zooms quickly to show cars racing along a web of roads.
NARRATOR:
Today, we are…
[Video Footage]
An oil rig out at sea, with the sun setting behind.
NARRATOR:
…a world leading…
[Video Footage]
The previous processing plant, seen from the air. A pipeline stretching into the distance alongside a dirt road.
NARRATOR:
…integrated energy company…
[Video Footage]
A tanker pulling up to the pumps at a petrol station.
NARRATOR:
…serving 33 million retail customers…
[Video Footage]
A petrol station attending, tapping a touchscreen monitor. A hand lifting a pump at a petrol station.
Two cashiers behind monitors, talking to customers.
Three people in orange, Shell work gear, walking across a facility site.
NARRATOR:
…over 1…
[Video Footage]
Many workers in blue jumpsuits, wearing protective helmets outside a work site.
NARRATOR:
…million…
[Video Footage]
The processing facility lights up as day turns to night.
NARRATOR:
…businesses in more than 70 countries.
[Video Footage]
A robot with a four-legged animal shape walks beneath scaffolding.
NARRATOR:
We're constantly evolving…
[Video Footage]
A man examines some liquid in a lab beaker.
NARRATOR:
…and innovating…
[Video Footage]
A man wearing a virtual reality headset looks around.
NARRATOR:
…delivering…
[Video Footage]
A flag with the Shell logo flies in front of the New York Stock Exchange.
NARRATOR:
…on our…
[Video Footage]
The street sign for the corner of Wall Street and Broad Street in New York is superimposed on a background showing charts and graphs.
NARRATOR:
…strategy…
[Video Footage]
A graph with a Shell logo above it is displayed on a large advertising screen on a New York street.
NARRATOR:
…and commitments guided by our principles of…
[Video Footage]
Two employees wearing red Shell jumpsuits and safety helmets walk across a facility site.
NARRATOR:
…performance…
[Video Footage]
A man in an orange jumpsuit turns a large wheel.
NARRATOR:
…discipline…
[Video Footage]
An oil rig is illuminated out in the ocean.
NARRATOR:
…and simplification.
[Video Footage]
A large ocean tanker moves across the ocean with extensive structures all across its deck.
NARRATOR:
Strengthening our portfolio…
[Video Footage]
A person walks in front of a collection of monitors with monitoring graphs of different varieties on their screens.
NARRATOR:
…and capabilities to realise…
[Video Footage]
Two people point a wall-mounted monitor then the view transitions to show an electrical facility in the middle of the countryside.
NARRATOR:
…our potential…
[Video Footage]
Four Shell employees wearing red jumpsuits with Brazilian flags on the arm walk through a facility.
NARRATOR:
…for our people…
[Video Footage]
Two gloved hands clasp each other.
NARRATOR:
…customers…
[Video Footage]
A woman in an orange Shell uniform talks to a man sitting in a car.
NARRATOR:
…partners…
[Video Footage]
A Shell-sponsored formula 1 car races along a track.
NARRATOR:
…and shareholders.
[Video Footage]
We see a shareholders meeting with a graphic displaying annual growth superimposed onto it.
NARRATOR:
So, as the world changes and your needs…
[Video Footage]
The shot changes to show an extensive server room stretching into the distance.
NARRATOR:
…evolve, we'll deliver more value…
[Video Footage]
People’s legs walking left and right, the view transitions to show a swooping aerial shot of a facility, then changing to show a different facility with wind turbines in the background.
NARRATOR:
…with less emissions…
[Video Footage]
A man inserts an electric vehicle charger into the charging port of a car.
NARRATOR:
…and keep…
[Video Footage]
A charging station with vehicles on the forecourt.
NARRATOR:
…our promise…
[Video Footage]
A car driving along a road at night as many streetlights blur past.
The viewpoint moves through a tunnel at speed.
A vehicle drives along an illuminated road at night.
NARRATOR:
…just as we have done for over a century.
[Video Footage]
The black and white video of Shell’s history, this time showing a number of Shell activities including a petrol station. The glowing Shell logo outline returns to the screen and rushes towards the camera before disappearing to reveal the initial New York skyline from a different angle.
NARRATOR:
You can be sure of Shell.
[Text Displays]
You can be sure of Shell.
[Video Footage]
The Shell logo draws in from the edge of the screen, turning the background white before coming to rest in the centre, fully forming.
[Text Displays]
Welcome to Capital Markets Day 2025. ©SHELL INTERNATIONAL LIMITED 2025.
[The music comes to an end with a piano jingle.]
[Video Footage]
The video disappears to reveal the whole main stage of the event, dimly lit. At the back of the stage are three arches in the structure of the wall. Inside each arch is a monitor the size and shape of the arch. On the screens within the arches are the logo for Shell being listed on the New York Stock exchange and the PowerPoint presentation. The lights come up as Wael Sawan begins to talk to the audience from behind a podium.
WAEL SAWAN:
Thank you very much, Mohammed, and welcome everyone to our 2025 Capital Markets Day.
[Text Displays]
Wael Sawan
Shell CEO
[Video Footage]
The shot zooms in to focus on Wael at the podium. Wael speaks, looking around to different areas of the audience periodically.
WAEL SAWAN:
It's great to see so many of you here in the room in the New York Stock Exchange, and also a warm welcome to all of you joining us today online. As Mohammed alluded to, the video uses a phrase that many will have heard before "You can be sure of Shell". That phrase has been used in different ways over the years, but it nicely encompasses what we've been trying to do, to restore…
[Video Footage]
The shot zooms out once more to show the whole stage and a section of the audience nearest to the stage, sitting at tables.
WAEL SAWAN:
…and to bring life across this organisation.
[Video Footage]
The shot changes to focus only on Wael Sawan standing behind the podium.
WAEL SAWAN:
So, what do we mean by that? Well, it comes down to confidence. Confidence that we will create even more value for our shareholders while reducing emissions. Confidence that through performance, discipline, and simplification we will deliver what we say, and confidence that we are strongly positioning Shell for the future, resilient irrespective of how the energy system evolves. Now, let's go back to Capital Markets Day 2023 or CMD 23.
[Video Footage]
The screen transitions to a split screen with Wael on the left and a screen showing information about Capital Markets Day 2023, Sprint 1.
[Text Displays]
Shell
Sprint 1: Our Journey to date
WAEL SAWAN:
We knew we had an organisation of great people and some world class businesses, but we also knew there were questions on our consistency, our focus, and our ability to unlock Shell's potential. And we agreed with that. So, we moved with urgency and conviction.
[Video Footage]
The slide has three large boxes taking up the majority of the slide, the left box regards the Sprint 1 process.
[Text Displays]
CMD 2023
Sprint 1
Course Correction
Our aims:
 Redefine performance
 Reposition portfolio
 Reset culture
WAEL SAWAN:
We decided to course-correct, challenge internal dogmas, while undertaking a cultural reset. And that correction spanned multiple areas. We sought to drive improved performance, embed cost and capital discipline, and make fundamental decisions across our portfolio. We sought to transform the company. And whilst there is much more to do, we are proud of where we are today, having taken the difficult steps when we needed to. The from and the to are clear.
[Video Footage]
The central box has a graphic showing where Shell has moved from and to. The “from” column is on the left, the central column is headed by a yellow arrow which points to the third, “to” column.
[Text Displays]
From. To.
[Video Footage]
The first row is about targets.
[Text Displays]
70+. Targets. 4 + 5¹
[Video Footage]
The number 5 is followed by a footnote.
[Text Displays]
¹Four financial targets, five climate focused targets.
[Video Footage]
The second row is about Cash Capex
[Text Displays]
$23-27 bln. Cash Capex. $22-25 bln.
[Video Footage]
The third row is about cost reductions.
[Text Displays]
-. Structural Cost Reductions². $2-3 bln.
[Video Footage]
Structural Cost Reductions has a footnote.
[Text Displays]
²From end of 2022 to 2025.
[Video Footage]
The fourth row is about Shareholder Distributions.
[Text Displays]
20-30%. Shareholder Distributions³. 30-40%.
[Video Footage]
Shareholder Distributions has a footnote.
[Text Displays]
³CFFO through the cycle.
[Video Footage]
The fifth row is about debt.
[Text Displays]
$17 bln. Net Debt excl. Leases. $10 bln.
WAEL SAWAN:
We reduced the number of targets significantly, ensuring that the ones that we did set were purposeful and would instil focus across the organisation. We also introduced the principles of performance, discipline, and simplification. And as we proceed to the next phase of our journey, they will remain our guiding principles. These are major changes which require significant efforts, especially by our staff. I could not be more proud of how they are rising to the challenges and how they are enabling our transformation, helping us deliver the successes that we have enjoyed so far. I'm also pleased to see our collective efforts reflected in our shares outperforming peers…
[Video Footage]
The right box regards performance in relation to peers and takes the form of a line chart with a red line representing Shell and a grey wave representing their peers.
[Text Displays]
Outperforming peers since 2023.
Share price⁴ performance since January 2023.
[Video Footage]
Share price has a footnote.
[Text Displays]
⁴Share prices as of 20/03/2025. Peers are ExxonMobil, Chevron, TotalEnergies and BP.
[Video Footage]
The y axis shows percentage values ranging from -30% to 30% in increments of 10.
[Text Displays]
-30%. -20%. -10%. 0%. 10%. 20%. 30%.
[Video Footage]
The x axis marks months and years.
[Text Displays]
Jan 23. Apr 23. Jul 23. Oct 23. Jan 24. Apr 24. Jul 24. Oct 24. Jan 25.
[Video Footage]
Below the chart is a colour-coded legend showing the meaning of the grey section and red line.
[Text Displays]
Peer group range. Shell.
WAEL SAWAN:
…and at the same time helping to drive our lowest net debt in nearly a decade, which positions us well for all scenarios. This gives us the momentum to keep improving and to deliver even more for our staff and our shareholders, as we continue on our journey to deliver more value with less emissions.
[Video Footage]
Below the three graphics is a sub-header.
[Text Displays]
Our Guiding Principles.
[Video Footage]
The left box regards performance and has an image of a speedometer.
[Text Displays]
Performance
Prelude availability
[Video Footage]
The middle box regards discipline and has an image of a human silhouette from the shoulder up, a cog and a clock.
[Text Displays]
Discipline
HEFA Investment Pause
[Video Footage]
The right box regards simplification and has an image of three points merging to form a single arrow pointing upwards.
[Text Displays]
Simplification
Leaner Corporate Centre
[Video Footage]
This slide, as well as all the other content slides of the presentation have the Shell logo in the bottom left corner with the title of the event and date, and the slide number in the bottom right corner.
[Text Displays]
Capital Markets Day | March 2025
[Video Footage]
The slide shown on the screen transitions to show a new slide on the subject of Shell’s commitments.
[Text Displays]
Shell
Sprint 1: Delivering on our commitments
WAEL SAWAN:
At CMD23, another area we touched on was our desire to build a track record and earn back the trust of our shareholders. Our mantra of delivering on what we say we will do has permeated throughout the organisation.
[Video Footage]
There is a sub-header.
[Text Displays]
Profitability transitioning towards Net Zero by 2050.
WAEL SAWAN:
By simplifying our processes and standards to help debureaucratise the organisation, together with setting up more frequent performance cadence and much tighter management of capital, we are seeing real improvement which is visible across all of our key targets. In fact, if you look to the left on the slide, you will see that we are over-delivering. This is particularly impressive in the areas of structural cost reductions.
[Video Footage]
The slide is made up of eight boxes containing Shell’s commitments. Some of objectives are marked with a green, filled-in tick representing a target that has been met. The other five have the same tick without the green, representing the target being on track for completion. The left four boxes are underlined in yellow. The top left box contains a green tick and an image of a hand placing a dollar coin on top of a stack of coins.
[Text Displays]
Shareholder distributions of 30- 40% of CFFO through the cycle
Avg. 2023 / 2024: 42%
[Video Footage]
The inner top left box contains an empty tick and an image of a flower on a sheet of paper, whose petals contain a dollar sign.
[Text Displays]
>6% p.a. absolute free cash flow growth through 2030¹
Avg. 2023 / 2024: 27%
[Video Footage]
2030 has a footnote.
[Text Displays]
¹FCF 2022 to 2025/2023, price-normalised (refer to CMD 23 materials for price assumption).
[Video Footage]
The bottom left-most box contains a green tick and an image of a flower whose petals contain a dollar sign, sprouting from a hand.
[Text Displays]
>10% p.a. FCF/share growth through 2025¹
[Video Footage]
2025 has the same number 1 footnote. The second bottom left box contains a green tick and an image of a sheet of paper, with a dollar sign and a bar chart on it.
[Text Displays]
Structural cost reductions of $2-3 billion by end 2025
2023 & 2024: >$3 billion
WAEL SAWAN:
We had a target of 2 to 3 billion dollars by end of 2025. And as we stand here in March, we have already exceeded this. On shareholder distributions, we said we would distribute 30 to 40 percent of our CFFO through the cycle, and we've delivered above that. And it's not just the more value side that we've made progress on.
[Video Footage]
The inner top right box contains an empty tick and a cloud with CO2 written inside it and a down arrow.
[Text Displays]
Halve Scope 1 and 2 emissions under operational control by 2030, on a net basis²
End 2024: 30%
[Video Footage]
Net basis has a number 2 footnote.
[Text Displays]
²2016 reference year.
[Video Footage]
The top right-most box contains an empty tick and a cloud with CH4 written inside it and a stop symbol.
[Text Displays]
Eliminate routine flaring by 2025³ and achieve near zero methane emissions by 2030⁴
End 2024: 0.1 mt & 0.04%
[Video Footage]
2025 has the number 3 footnote.
[Text Displays]
³From upstream operations, subject to completion of the sale of The Shell Petroleum Development Company of Nigeria Limited.
[Video Footage]
2030 has the number 4 footnote.
[Text Displays]
⁴On an intensity basis.
[Video Footage]
The inner bottom right box contains an empty tick and a cloud with CO2 written inside it and a down arrow.
[Text Displays]
Reduce the net carbon intensity (NCI) of the products we sell by 15-20% by 2030²
End 2024: 9%
[Video Footage]
2030 is followed by the number 2 footnote.
WAEL SAWAN:
On the emissions side, earlier this year, we reached our target of eliminating routine flaring. We also achieved a reduction in the net carbon intensity of the products that we sell, moving us closer to our target of a 15 to 20 percent reduction by 2030.
[Video Footage]
The bottom right-most box contains an empty tick and a cloud with CO2 written inside it and a down arrow.
[Text Displays]
Ambition to reduce customer emissions from use of our oil products by 15-20% by 2030⁵
End 2024: 14%
[Video Footage]
2030 has a footnote.
[Text Displays]
⁵Compared to 2021, Scope 3, Category 1L.
WAEL SAWAN:
In 2024, we introduced an ambition to reduce customer emissions from the use of our oil products by 15 to 20 percent by 2030. And I can confirm we are progressing well on that too. Hopefully what you can all see is that when we say we will do something, we deliver.
[Video Footage]
The split screen disappears, and we once again see the whole stage, with Wael Sawan standing at the podium.
WAEL SAWAN:
And I hope that as a result when you walk away today, you have the same high conviction that we do…
[Video Footage]
The split screen returns in the same format and the slide advances, now showing Shell’s intended timeline from the present to 2030 with the goals that have already been completed transitioning to those in progress and when they are expected to be achieved.
WAEL SAWAN:
…that we will deliver on what we have said. And we've learned a lot over the last two years and these lessons will serve us extremely well over the next period of our transformation.
[Text Displays]
Shell
Our journey to 2030
The investment case through the energy transition
[Video Footage]
The left side of the slide contains information regarding Shell’s current track record.
[Text Displays]
Today
Track record of delivery
• Delivery across key financial targets
• Rewarding our shareholders
[Video Footage]
Below this list is the start of a long arrow which extends all the way to the right of the slide in an upwards trajectory.
Below the start of the arrow on the left are four boxes.
The top left box has an image of a sheet of paper with the dollar flower in it.
[Text Displays]
Reduced Operating Expenses by 10%
[Video Footage]
The top right box has the same dollar flower image.
[Text Displays]
Reduced Cash Capex by 15%
[Video Footage]
The bottom left box has an image of a dollar coin being placed on a stack by a hand.
[Text Displays]
Reduced Net Debt by $6 billion
[Video Footage]
The bottom right box has the same image of a dollar coin being placed on a stack by a hand.
[Text Displays]
Distributed $46 billion¹ to shareholders.
[Video Footage]
The word billion has a footnote.
[Text Displays]
¹Combined dividends and buybacks in 2023 and 2024.
[Video Footage]
In the middle of the slide is a column of milestones for 2028.
[Text Displays]
2028 Milestones
Delivering even more
• Across our business
• For our shareholders
[Video Footage]
Below the list is a box with a title and three on track targets marked with the empty tick symbol.
[Text Displays]
Through 2028
Structural Cost Reductions² $5-7 billion
Lower Cash Capex $20-22 billion
CFFO Distributions³ 40-50%
[Video Footage]
Structural Cost Reductions has the number 2 footnote.
[Text Displays]
²By end 2028, cumulative from 2022.
[Video Footage]
CFFO Distributions has the number 3 footnote.
[Text Displays]
³CFFO through the cycle.
[Video Footage]
The right side of the screen has information regarding future potential.
[Text Displays]
2030
Realising Potential
[Video Footage]
Below the arrow is a text box with a header and two points of future potential.
[Text Displays]
By 2030
Intrinsic Value Creation
nFCF/share growth⁴ >10% p.a.
Capital Reallocation
ROACE⁵ across segments ≥10%
[Video Footage]
Share growth is followed by the number 4 footnote.
[Text Displays]
⁴nFCF is Organic free cash flow (excl. working capital and derivatives), divided by period end shares outstanding (excl. shares held in trust). Price normalised, for price assumptions see Appendix.
[Video Footage]
ROACE is followed by the number 5 footnote.
[Text Displays]
⁵ROACE normalised $70/bbl Brent.
[Video Footage]
In the bottom right corner of the slide is the Target on track empty tick symbol as a legend.
WAEL SAWAN:
We are clearer on where we want to go as a company, where we should play, and where we need to step back, and how to help our people and businesses unlock their full potential. As we think through how to measure that potential, our North Star remains free cash flow per share growth and alongside this, as we will outline in the second part of the presentation, we aim to enhance our capital aiming for a ROACE greater than 10 percent across our segments in a normalised 70 dollar per barrel oil price environment. We're extending our free cash flow per share growth target of greater than 10 percent per annum out to 2030, and believe that this continues to be a good proxy for intrinsic value creation. Alongside these long-term and more fundamental principles, today we're also outlining the next phase of our transformation…
[Video Footage]
The shot once again shows the whole stage, before returning to the split screen of the same slide.
WAEL SAWAN:
…with 2028 representing a key milestone year for Shell. We're raising our structural cost savings target to a cumulative 5 to 7 billion dollars by the end of 2028 compared with 2022. We're further right-sizing our cash CapEx to 20 to 22 billion dollars per year from 22 to 25 billion dollars. And we will continue to reward investors with higher distributions, moving our payout percentage from 30 to 40 percent to 40 to 50 percent of CFFO through the cycle. So, in summary, we're going further on all of our financial targets, building on the strong foundations that we have built during Sprint 1.
[Video Footage]
The slide changes to show a number of graphics, outlining demand growth across a number of possible global scenarios.
[Text Displays]
Shell
Demand growth across all scenarios irrespective of pace of transition.
WAEL SAWAN:
Let me step back now for a moment. Shell has connected energy and people for a hundred years now. It's what we do, and what we will continue to do. And while we can't always predict the future of energy, our scenarios help set the bookends of possible outcomes and inform our portfolio choices.
[Video Footage]
The left graphic shows a bar chart.
[Text Displays]
Primary energy demand across Shell scenarios
Exajoules
635, 638, 711, 752.
[Video Footage]
The bars are made up of segmented sections of different colours representing the energy resources, below the bars is a legend, showing what each colour represents.
[Text Displays]
Coal. Oil. LNG. Pipeline gas. Bioenergy. Wind & Solar. Nuclear & Other renewables.
[Video Footage]
Each bar has its own title listed below.
[Text Displays]
2023. Horizon. Archipelagos. Surge.
[Video Footage]
The named categories are bracketed together to show they are expected by the year 2040.
WAEL SAWAN:
Whether it's our archipelagos scenario…
[Video Footage]
The central graphic shows Shell’s current core beliefs regarding energy transitions into the future.
[Text Displays]
Shell Scenario¹
[Video Footage]
Shell Scenario has a footnote.
[Text Displays]
¹Data Shell Scenarios.
[Video Footage]
Boxes list key beliefs about energy in the future and green or grey tick icons represent whether that belief is aligned or partially aligned with the belief system, respectively. Each column is headed by the scenario name.
[Text Displays]
Horizon
Normative approach aimed at net zero
Archipelagos
Sentiment shifts to resource, border & trade security
Surge
Higher economic growth from AI
[Video Footage]
Each row begins with a box describing the belief.
[Text Displays]
LNG plays key role in the energy transition including replacing coal.
[Video Footage]
All three ticks are green.
[Text Displays]
Continued oil investment on demand remains robust to 2040
[Video Footage]
One grey tick under Horizon and green ticks under the other two categories.
[Text Displays]
Low carbon molecules and renewable power underpin future energy system.
[Video Footage]
Grey tick under Archipelagos and green under the other two categories.
WAEL SAWAN:
…which reflects a world view which is very much focused on owning resources, or tighter border and trade security, not too dissimilar to what we are seeing today, or our recently published Surge scenario, which incorporates increased demand from AI into the energy system. One message is consistent, demand for energy will continue to grow.
[Video Footage]
The right graphic shows a 2-bar graph, displaying a breakdown by percentage of energy sales from Shell.
[Text Displays]
Our portfolio is aligned with a balanced multi-energy transition. % Split of energy sales.
[Video Footage]
The two bars show different resources by colour, with the segments of the bar representing a percentage value.
[Text Displays]
The y axis goes from 0% to 100% in 20% intervals.
[Video Footage]
The left bar is for 2023 and the right bar 2030. The shift in segment size shows an overall shift away from Oil products and towards renewables. The categories are shown in a coloured key below.
[Text Displays]
Oil Products. LNG. Pipeline gas. Biofuels. Electricity.
[Video Footage]
We see the whole stage again, before returning to split screen.
WAEL SAWAN:
Across all of these scenarios, we see gas and in particular, LNG being a winner and that's aligned with our portfolio today, and our longer-term vision which I will come to in the next slide. We expect that supplying LNG will be the biggest contribution we will make to the energy transition over the next decade and we are positioning our portfolio to match this. At the same time, continued investment in oil will be needed to offset…
[Video Footage]
We see the whole stage again, before returning to split screen.
WAEL SAWAN:
…the natural decline rates of oil fields. Aligned with our vision to sustain a material liquids production base, we are ready to take advantage of the growth opportunities ahead. And as the demand for secure and affordable energy rises, it will need to be consumed with lower emissions. Lower-carbon molecules and renewable power will play an important role supporting the decarbonisation of the different sectors. EVs' share will grow in light transport. Biofuel demand will grow in heavy transport and in aviation, together with the increased use of natural gas as marine fuel. All these are foundations for maturing a set of high-quality low-carbon business options which we will talk about later. Ultimately, different outcomes and different rates of change across energy vectors are possible but we believe that Shell's strength comes from a portfolio and balance sheet that aligns with the uncertainty of a transitioning multi-energy system.
[Video Footage]
The slide transitions to show a new graphic representing Shell’s vision for growth beyond 2030.
[Text Displays]
Shell
Our Vision for Shell beyond 2030: Growing where we have advantages
WAEL SAWAN:
And before delving deeper into our plans through to 2030, and the beliefs that underpin them, I want to lay out our longer-term vision to ensure that our investors are clear what they are getting into when they buy the Shell investment case.
[Video Footage]
Along the top of the slide is a segmented timeline, starting at today and extending to 2040 and beyond in 5-year increments. The starting point of the process is displayed on the left-hand side with a graphic representing how these fundamentals will leading into growth.
[Text Displays]
Our starting point
Track Record Sprint 1
Fundamentals FCF Potential
Balance Sheet Strength
WAEL SAWAN:
The vision we have is underpinned by the positions that we have created today. From the strength of our balance sheet that you'll hear more about from Sinead in a moment…
[Video Footage]
On the right had side business and growth opportunities are represented as layers which expand as they stretch to the right-hand side of the timeline.
[Text Displays]
Extending our advantaged portfolio
Free Cash Flow Growth
Power & Low Carbon Options
Leading Integrated Gas & LNG Business
No. #1 Listed LNG supplier
Most Customer-focused Energy Marketer & Trader
No. #1 Global Lubricants supplier & Leading Mobility platform
Sustain Material Liquids Production¹
No. #1 Deepwater producer across IOCs
Chemicals & Products
[Video Footage]
Sustain Material Liquids Production has a footnote.
[Text Displays]
¹Focused inorganic investments to sustain material liquids production, if required.
WAEL SAWAN:
…to our strong free cash flow delivery that we will grow further, to the momentum that we have in sustaining the successful sprint performance improvement journey that you have seen, I am confident in our future path. That path is about three great franchise businesses that drive our conviction in growing free cash flow and all three are core to our portfolio. Through our intent to fully fund growth across all of these, our investors can be sure of reaping the rewards of resilient and highly attractive shareholder distributions through not just cycles but decades.
[Video Footage]
The second section below these bars shows Shell’s shareholder commitments.
[Text Displays]
Delivering for our shareholders
Shareholder distributions: 40-50% of CFFO through the cycle.
WAEL SAWAN:
First, in Integrated Gas or IG, we are already the number one global listed LNG supplier and we intend to remain a leading integrated gas and LNG player through to the 2040s. We believe LNG will be one of the most durable energy vectors through the energy transition, with very attractive growth prospects. We will aim to decarbonise our gas value chains and over time, strive to develop and commercialise lower-carbon intensity gases. Second, we are today the number one global lubricants supplier and a world-leading mobility platform but we aim to be the most customer-focused energy marketer and trader through to the 2040s. Our trading capabilities are one of our most important competitive advantages, and they add immense value to our portfolio, especially through the mobility short. We expect this value uplift, which is already material in products and integrated gas, to expand over time and help unlock new growth opportunities through deeper integration with our Power, Mobility, and Low Carbon Options. And third, we will sustain material liquids production as we expect demand to fall less than natural field declines. We will focus on basins where we have a competitive advantage and will prioritise cost and carbon-competitive molecules which add and high-grade our leading Deepwater and Conventional Oil portfolio. I hope you will agree that we are shaping a winning portfolio for the future, one that offers our investors a differentiated investment case, with underlying resilience and attractive distributions.
[Video Footage]
The slide transitions to show information about the ways Shell intends to enhance performance and unlock potential in their portfolio.
[Text Displays]
Shell
Enhancing performance and unlocking potential across the portfolio.
WAEL SAWAN:
Our portfolio today is more streamlined than it has been for years, but we still have work to do to truly enable us to realise our full potential. Let me now introduce a frame which we will use throughout the rest of the presentation to outline our plans across our portfolio.
[Video Footage]
Two large boxes show the two main segments of the portfolio with a title above.
[Text Displays]
Performance, Discipline & Simplification
Strongly positioned through our advantaged portfolio.
[Video Footage]
Arrows point downwards from the title to the two boxes. The left box shows elements relating to long-term growth.
[Text Displays]
Growth, Longevity, Resilience
Higher return business drive free cash clow longevity across portfolio
Integrated Gas Upstream
Mobility Products
Lubricants
WAEL SAWAN:
On the one hand, we have world-leading businesses offering focused growth across Integrated Gas, Mobility and Lubricants, and we also benefit from adjusted earnings and cash flow stability and resilience within our Upstream and Products businesses. Combined, these represent around 80 percent of group capital employed and generated an attractive 15 percent return on capital employed last year. We will continue to allocate capital towards these businesses and are confident that they will provide cash flow duration well into the next decade, which is far beyond current market expectations.
[Video Footage]
To the side of the left box is a pair of smaller boxes approximate breakdowns.
[Text Displays]
⁓$175 billion
Capital employed ⁓80%
⁓15% ROACE
[Video Footage]
The right box shows areas in which Shell intends to focus on returns.
[Text Displays]
High-grade Returns, Harness Options
Focusing portfolio to improve returns and unlock value whilst developing low carbon options
Chemical Power¹
Low Carbon Options²
Low Carbon Fuels
Hydrogen
CCS
[Video Footage]
Chemical Power is followed by a footnote.
[Text Displays]
¹Reported within R&ES segment.
[Video Footage]
Low Carbon Options is followed by a footnote.
[Text Displays]
²Reported within Marketing and R&ES segments.
WAEL SAWAN:
On the other hand, we have businesses where we are focusing our attention to unlock value and realise upside. Those are Chemicals, Power, and our Low Carbon Options including low-carbon fuels, hydrogen, and CCS. Combined these constitute the other 20 percent of the group's capital…
[Video Footage]
The shot changes to show only the slide.
To the side of the right box is a pair of smaller boxes showing approximate breakdowns.
[Text Displays]
⁓$45 billion
Capital Employed ⁓20%
⁓.2% ROACE
[Video Footage]
Below the two boxes there is a sub-heading.
[Text Displays]
Unparalleled Trading & Supply Capabilities.
WAEL SAWAN:
…employed but in aggregate they are not delivering adequate returns.
[Video Footage]
The image changes back to split screen.
WAEL SAWAN:
Our plan is to further high-grade returns in this portfolio and implement the business models and structures that will unlock the most value.
[Video Footage]
The slide transitions to show a new slide containing graphics and information on the resilience of the portfolio.
[Text Displays]
Shell
Our advantaged portfolio, well positioned for all scenarios
WAEL SAWAN:
Our overall investment case consists of three distinct characteristics.
[Video Footage]
The left box contains two graphics, the first of which is a bar chart with three columns, showing growth of oil and gas production.
[Text Displays]
1. Upside exposure: Growth and longevity
Growing oil & gas production to 2030
[Video Footage]
The y axis shows mboe/d and is numbered from 0 to 3 in intervals of 1. Above the bars is an arrow starting bottom left and ending diagonally top right with a label.
[Text Displays]
1% CAGR
[Video Footage]
Each bar is labelled for the year it represents and split equally into the colours red and yellow, which represent Liquids and Gas respectively. A label is attached to the red sections.
[Text Displays]
1.4 mb/d Liquids
WAEL SAWAN:
We offer upside price exposure through our IG and Upstream businesses…
[Video Footage]
The right graphic shows an area line chart split between red and yellow sections representing Integrated Gas and Marketing respectively.
[Text Displays]
Growing Integrated Gas and Marketing
CFFO¹, sustained well beyond 2030.
[Video Footage]
CFFO has a footnote.
[Text Displays]
Excluding working capital.
[Video Footage]
The y axis is labelled $ billion and ranges from 0 to 25 in increments of 5.
[Text Displays]
$ billion
0. 5. 10. 15. 20. 25.
[Video Footage]
The x axis ranges from 2025 to 2040 in increments of 5 years. A white arrow stretches across the red section of the chart from 2025 to 2030 showing 4.5% growth. The arrow has an asterisk footnote.
[Text Displays]
CAGR LNG sales from 2024 to 2030, excluding spot purchases.
WAEL SAWAN:
…we offer downside price protection from our resilient Downstream businesses…
[Video Footage]
The right box shows information on product resilience over time.
[Text Displays]
2. Downside protection: Resilience from Downstream.
[Video Footage]
Two line charts show fluctuations in earnings over time between 2018 and 2024.
[Text Displays]
Resilient Downstream adjusted earning complimenting Integrated Gas & Upstream.
[Video Footage]
The y axis shows 4Q Rolling Earnings by billion dollars, ranging from -5 to 15 in increments of 5. Three coloured lines representing C&P and Marketing, Integrated Gas and Upstream show the fluctuations in earnings. The second chart shows downstream CFFO.
[Text Displays]
Resilient Downstream CFFO despite external price volatility.
[Video Footage]
The left y axis is labelled with 4Q Rolling CFFO in billions of dollars, ranging from 0 to 30 in increments of 10. The right y axis is labelled.
[Text Displays]
Oil price, IRM
($/bbl)
[Video Footage]
The right y axis ranges from 0 to 100 in increments of 25. The three coloured lines represent C&P Marketing CFFO, Oil price and IRM respectively. IRM has a footnote.
[Text Displays]
²IRM scaled by factor of five for comparison.
WAEL SAWAN:
…and thirdly best-in-class volatility capture through our world-leading trading capabilities.
[Video Footage]
Below the two boxes is a sub-heading.
[Text Displays]
3. Capturing volatility: Uplift from Trading & Supply
WAEL SAWAN:
Let me now expand on these three to explain why we believe we have a portfolio that offers both focused growth and duration. Firstly, in LNG, we aim to grow volumes within our overall LNG portfolio at a 4 to 5 percent compound annual growth rate to 2030, which as you will see later is largely Brent-exposed. And across our combined IG and Upstream businesses, we also aim to grow top-line production by 1 percent CAGR to 2030, supported by 1.4 million barrels per day of liquids with a clear value-over-volume lens. We don't believe these growth elements and the resulting cash flow longevity, which extend well into the next decade, are fully appreciated today, but we are confident in their delivery. The second key characteristic of our portfolio is the downside protection as well as the longevity offered by our Downstream businesses including Chemicals and Products and Marketing, and eventually our Low Carbon Options. While cash flows from our core IG and Upstream businesses bring a certain degree of commodity-linked volatility, these Downstream businesses offer very stable adjusted earnings and CFFO even with external volatility. Lastly, given the commodity and margin volatility that we expect will continue to be a feature of energy markets, we are better positioned than most to capture further value through our unparalleled trading and supply capabilities. The uplift that this provides will continue to bolster and enhance our cash flow delivery from which our shareholders will also benefit.
[Video Footage]
A new slide appears showing Portfolio uplift from integrated Trading & Supply in a global context with a graphic of the world map which has colour coding to show the status of Shell’s trading agreements in those countries.
[Text Displays]
Shell
Portfolio uplift from integrated Trading & Supply
WAEL SAWAN:
We don't often speak about our trading and supply capabilities, but our scale and our global footprint are unparalleled across the industry. We've been developing these capabilities and positions for decades which makes them hard to replicate, as the map of our global assets highlights. As a result, trading has shown consistency in performance resulting in tangible value creation, delivering an average uplift of around 2 percent to our return on average capital employed over the past decade. Indeed, across this time we have not lost money across our commodity classes in any quarter.
[Video Footage]
The shot returns to show the whole stage, before returning to the split screen view.
There is a sub-header below the title.
[Text Displays]
⁓2% ROACE uplift annually and no earnings losses in any quarter over the last decade¹.
[Video Footage]
The word decade has a footnote.
[Text Displays]
¹Aggregated Trading & Supply adjusted earning across all commodity classes.
[Video Footage]
The slide displays information relating to global infrastructure and expected uplift.
[Text Displays]
2-4% ROACE uplift expected medium term.
[Video Footage]
The map is surrounded by eight boxes, four on either side, which provide further details regarding various elements of Shell’s global infrastructure. The first box starts to the top left of the world map.
[Text Displays]
⁓50 mtpa – Largest LNG capacity among IOCs from 14 facilities²
[Video Footage]
The word facilities has a footnote.
[Text Displays]
²Includes liquefaction capacity which is operational under construction or taken FID [sic].
[Video Footage]
The remaining boxes are spread equally on either side.
[Text Displays]
66 mtpa LNG sold in 2024 across 30 countries
⁓10% of global LNG fleet – One of the world’s largest
12 LNG bunker vessels – World’s largest
100s of supply points – One of the world’s largest
> 8 million barrels of crude oil physically traded each day
Seven GW of flex and storage capacity under management
> 10 billion litres of low carbon fuels traded in 2024
[Video Footage]
Below the map is a colour-coded legend explaining what each of the colours used on the world map represent.
[Text Displays]
Significant shell trading activity. Gas term agreements and power assets. Low Carbon Fuels Assets / 3rd Party Terms Agreements*
[Video Footage]
Agreements is followed by an asterisk footnote.
[Text Displays]
*One icon per country (region in USA/Canada) not location.
[Video Footage]
The key continues.
[Text Displays]
Crude Assets, Refineries / 3rd Party Term Agreements*.
[Video Footage]
Agreements is also annotated with the same asterisk. The list continues.
[Text Displays]
LNG Liquefaction / Regassification Terminal Asset.
WAEL SAWAN:
This is an underappreciated and undervalued aspect of Shell that is fundamental to the integrated nature of the company.
[Video Footage]
We once again see the full view of the stage before returning to split screen.
WAEL SAWAN:
And looking ahead, we expect our trading and supply capabilities to continue to contribute 2 to 4 percent return on capital employed uplift. This uplift is possible because our scale in energy markets is just unmatched. We have the largest LNG capacity among our peers and one of the world's largest LNG shipping fleets representing 10 percent of the global market. Beyond LNG, we trade more than 8 million barrels of crude daily. And in 2024, we physically traded more than 10 billion litres of low-carbon fuels. With hundreds of supply points worldwide, this portfolio represents one of the largest energy trading capabilities globally. Now, let me hand over to Sinead to detail how we plan to unlock even more value for our shareholders. Sinead.
[Video Footage]
We once again see the full view of the stage, Wael Sawan walks off stage and is replaced by Sinead Gorman who places a sheet of paper on a white table before stepping behind the podium.
SINEAD GORMAN:
Thank you. Let me first start with where we have come from.
[Video Footage]
A yellow and white box slides onscreen in the bottom-left corner.
[Text Displays]
Sinead Gorman
Shell CFO
[Video Footage]
The camera zooms back in, to focus on the podium.
SINEAD GORMAN:
The first slide that Wael spoke to is one that makes me smile, and makes me proud of everything the organisation has delivered.
[Video Footage]
The view returns to split screen, now with a new slide visible which details investment details relating to Shell.
[Text Displays]
Shell
A differentiated investment case prioritising share buybacks
SINEAD GORMAN:
We have sought to ensure that every capital allocation decision we take is in service of creating long-term value for our shareholders. At Capital Markets Day 2023, we stood here and outlined a revamped approach to how we allocate capital, with a conscious focus on increasing per-share value. We went from the myriad of targets that Wael mentioned to an emphasis on free cash flow per share. Our conviction then and our conviction now is that our shares remain undervalued, which the middle chart demonstrates very nicely.
[Video Footage]
The slide contains three graphics from left to right, the first of which is a bar chart detailing shareholder buybacks.
[Text Displays]
Giving shareholders more ownership in our future through buybacks. Shareholder distributions as % of CFFO¹.
[Video Footage]
CFFO has a footnote.
[Text Displays]
¹Four quarter rolling.
[Video Footage]
The left y axis of the chart shows payout percentage, ranging from 0% to 60% in increments of 20. The x axis shows years 2021 to 2025, with each year having four bars to represent the quarters. The right y axis shows shares in units of billions, ranging from 0 to 8 in increments of 2. Below the chart is a colour legend for the yellow of the bars and red for a line which starts at the 50% marker and reduces to 40% over the five years.
[Text Displays]
% CFFO distributed. Shares outstanding².
[Video Footage]
The red, shares outstanding has a footnote.
[Text Displays]
²Excluding shares held in trust.
[Video Footage]
Below the chart is a statistic regarding repurchasing.
[Text Displays]
21% of our shares repurchased in the last 3 years.
[Video Footage]
The central graphic shows information regarding trading yield.
[Text Displays]
While trading at an attractive yield. FCF as % of Enterprise Value³.
[Video Footage]
Enterprise Value has a footnote.
[Text Displays]
³Poor data from Visible Alpha, Enterprise Values as of 27/02/2025 from Bloomberg.
[Video Footage]
The graphic shows a horizontal bar chart, the x axis shows percentage between 2025 and 2030, ranging from 0% to 80% in increments of 20. The y axis shows Shell’s yield as well as those of four peers, all of whom have lower values. Below the chart is a further statement.
[Text Displays]
Further ⁓40% share repurchase potential by 2030⁴.
[Video Footage]
2030 has a footnote.
[Text Displays]
⁴[Illegible] assumes current share prices and constant paybacks to 2030.
SINEAD GORMAN:
This presents the management team with an opportunity to undertake buybacks at an attractive price relative to our underlying cashflows and with the full knowledge that there is much more we have to deliver. And we've been building momentum.
[Video Footage]
The third graphic shows a vertical bar chart representing dividends given by Shell to their shareholders.
[Text Displays]
And adding dividends delivering a competitive total shareholder return. Total shareholder return⁵ since January 2023.
[Video Footage]
Total shareholder return has a footnote.
[Text Displays]
⁵Total shareholder return data in USD from Bloomberg, updated on 20/03/2025 and includes capital appreciation with dividends reinvested.
[Video Footage]
The y axis of the chat displays percentage from 0% to 40% in increments of 10 and the x axis denotes five bars, starting with one representing Shell in red on the left, followed by four peers with lower values represented by yellow bars. Below the chart is a statement.
[Text Displays]
25% increase in DPS during first sprint.
SINEAD GORMAN:
We went from a 20 to 30 percent payout to 30 to 40 percent and that has translated into tangible results. Over the last three years, we have bought back more than 20 percent of our shares and also increased our DPS by 25 percent. Combined, this has helped us deliver peer-leading total shareholder returns. And today, with confidence in our path forward, we are further increasing our payout to 40 to 50 percent of CFFO through the cycle. We continue to see significant free cash flow opportunities across our portfolio, and material upside in our shares, which is why we continue to preferentially allocate capital to share buybacks. By 2030, with our share price at these levels, we see the potential to repurchase up to a further 40 percent of our shares. For a company that has had a flat share count over the last 20 years of this century, our delivery since 2022 and our plans through to 2030 represent one of the most significant shifts in capital allocation in our history.
[Video Footage]
The slide changes to show a new screen on the subject of investment.
[Text Displays]
Shell
Value accretive and focused capital investment.
SINEAD GORMAN:
Staying with the theme of capital allocation, let me outline our plans for cash CapEx. We remain committed to making every dollar count, being unemotional with our spend, and delivering performance, not just promises.
[Video Footage]
The slide shows three graphics with bar charts, where the bars are made up of multiple colours. The left graphic is regarding investment discipline.
[Text Displays]
Disciplined and predictable investments
Cash capex ($ billion)
[Video Footage]
The y axis displays numbers ranging from 0 to 20 in increments of 10, and the x axis shows the years each bar represents.
[Text Displays]
2022. 2023. 2024. 2025-2028.
[Video Footage]
Above the final bar are two dotted lines with writing above.
[Text Displays]
$20-22 billion p.a.
[Video Footage]
Below the chart is a colour-coded legend showing what is represented by each colour within the bars.
[Text Displays]
IGU. C&P. MKT. R&ES.
[Video Footage]
Below the chart is a statement.
[Text Displays]
$20-22 billion Cash capex p.a. 2025-2028.
SINEAD GORMAN:
So, despite inflationary pressures, we are today lowering our cash CapEx range from 22 to 25 billion dollars per year to 20 to 22 billion dollars for '25 to '28. This is about raising the bar for investment. It's about being strict and allocating more to the highest returning projects we have, and it's about a disciplined approach to creating low-carbon options for the future.
[Video Footage]
The central graphic contains data about return prioritisation.
[Text Displays]
Prioritising highest return opportunities
Cash capex allocation (%)
[Video Footage]
The y axis of the chart shows percentage values from 0% to 100% in intervals of 50. The x axis describing the two bars shows the years that each bar represents.
[Text Displays]
2019-2024. 2025-2030.
[Video Footage]
To the right of the bars there is a section showing Organic IRR hurdle rates, which are denoted by arrows, which point towards the bars.
[Text Displays]
10%. 12-15%. 11-15%.
[Video Footage]
Below the chart is a colour key denoting what each colour that makes up the bar represents.
[Text Displays]
IGU. C&P & MKT. R&ES.
[Video Footage]
Below the graph is a statement.
[Text Displays]
Inorganic capex: Directed towards IGU.
SINEAD GORMAN:
We expect to spend around 12 to 14 billion dollars a year in Integrated Gas and Upstream, both of which will continue to contribute significantly to cash flows, and allow us to sustain our material liquids production and grow our LNG sales. In Downstream and Renewables and Energy Solutions, we aim to spend around 8 billion dollars a year. In Renewables and Energy Solutions, we will take a measured approach, building positions to deliver cash flow in areas where we can leverage our strengths such as our trading capabilities. And as we've previously indicated, our cash CapEx guidance includes a small amount of capital for bolt-on inorganic activities, and that will continue to be the case. We exclude other inorganic activity from our range but would expect those, if they arise, to be directed towards Integrated Gas and Upstream in line with our strategy.
[Video Footage]
The right graphic is a bar chart containing two bars with coloured segments.
[Text Displays]
High-grading Capital Employed
% of Capital Employed¹
[Video Footage]
Capital Employed has a footnote.
[Text Displays]
Includes low carbon option investments held at <10% of Group Capital employed.
[Video Footage]
The y axis of the chart shows percentage values from 0% to 100% in intervals of 50. The x axis describing the two bars shows the years that each bar represents.
[Text Displays]
2024. 2030.
[Video Footage]
The left bar has percentages written within each coloured section, one smaller and the other larger.
[Text Displays]
20%. 80%.
[Video Footage]
Below the chart is a colour key denoting what each colour that makes up the bar represents.
[Text Displays]
Growth, Longevity, Resilience. High-grade Returns, Harness Options.
[Video Footage]
Below the graph is a statement.
[Text Displays]
≥10% ROACE² across segments by 2030.
[Video Footage]
ROACE has a footnote.
[Text Displays]
²ROACE normalised to $70/bbl Brent.
SINEAD GORMAN:
Given the discipline that we have shown and will continue to exercise, we are driving improvement in return on average capital employed across all our businesses. By 2030, this will mean a shift in capital employed towards the higher-returning businesses that Wael described earlier. With that, let me move on to structural cost reductions.
[Video Footage]
The slide show changes to show a new screen on the subject of simplification.
[Text Displays]
Shell
Pursuing an optimal cost base by driving simplification.
SINEAD GORMAN:
In 2023 and 2024, the delivery across the organisation has been excellent, helping us to reach our reduction target of 2 to 3 billion dollars for structural costs one year ahead of plan.
[Video Footage]
The slide contains two graphics, the left of which is regarding cost reductions.
[Text Displays]
Continuing our cost reduction drive across the group
Cumulative structural cost reductions ($ billion)
[Video Footage]
The chart contains three vertical bars which grow downwards from the top. The y axis is numbered from -1 to -7 in intervals of 2. The x axis describing the three bars shows the years that each bar represents.
[Text Displays]
2023. 2023-2024. 2023-2028.
[Video Footage]
To the right of the chart is a colour-coded legend showing what each colour within the bars represents.
[Text Displays]
Integrated Gas & Upstream
Downstream and Renewable & Energy Solutions
[Video Footage]
The yellow and red sections of the 2023 bar contain numbers in brackets.
[Text Displays]
(0.2)
(0.8)
[Video Footage]
The yellow and red sections of the 2023-2024 bar contain numbers in brackets.
[Text Displays]
(1.6)
(1.5)
SINEAD GORMAN:
The majority of these savings in 2024 came from non-portfolio activities.
[Video Footage]
The right graphic shows information regarding structural savings.
[Text Displays]
Shifting to structural savings
Cumulative structural cost reduction ($ billion).
[Video Footage]
The chart contains three vertical bars which grow downwards from the top. The y axis is numbered from -1 to -7 in intervals of 2. The x axis describing the three bars shows the years that each bar represents.
[Text Displays]
2023. 2023-2024. 2023-2028.
[Video Footage]
To the right of the chart is a colour-coded legend showing what each colour within the bars represents.
[Text Displays]
Portfolio savings
Non-portfolio savings
[Video Footage]
Below the charts is a statement.
[Text Displays]
$5-7 billion cumulative structural cost reduction from 2022 to 2028. e.g. Procurement & supply chain optimisation, Cost savings from technology & AI implementation, and Corporate centre simplification.
SINEAD GORMAN:
For example, we now have a leaner corporate centre which helped us save some 700 million dollars, including a reduction in the number of contractors by around 30 percent since 2023. And outside of the corporate centre, at the front line, our staff are starting to spend every dollar as if it were their own. As an example, travel costs have come down some 40 percent compared with where we were five years ago. For Wael and I, it's an important barometer of cultural change. We are transforming Shell; our people have stepped up and are at the forefront of this transformation. As our ways of working change and our ability to challenge paradigms increases, we continue to identify ways to go even further. We are moving at pace to realise these opportunities, which is why today we are upgrading our structural cost reduction target to a cumulative 5 to 7 billion dollars by the end of 2028 from 2022. This is about putting our principles of performance, discipline, and simplification to work, streamlining processes, and being purposeful in everything we do. The majority of the savings will come from non-portfolio activities. We see opportunities to further optimise our procurement and supply chains, we're excited by the latest technology and AI opportunities, which will help us become even more efficient, and we will continue to identify opportunities to simplify further in the corporate centre. All of these will ensure we remain agile and competitive and we will not stop looking for further cost savings beyond this target.
[Video Footage]
The slide show changes to show a new screen regarding the portfolio.
[Text Displays]
Shell
Repositioning the portfolio.
[Video Footage]
The slide shows a timeline starting in 2023 and extending towards 2024-2025 with boxes showing elements of the portfolio over time. There are four timelines for different strategic pathways.
SINEAD GORMAN:
One of our key priorities when embarking upon our first Sprint, was repositioning the portfolio, and we've certainly been busy. There is a lot on this slide but we wanted to highlight the key strategic decisions that we have taken since we were last here.
[Video Footage]
The first element is in 2023.
[Text Displays]
Divestment
Singapore refining and chemicals¹
Reset Chemicals trajectory.
[Video Footage]
The first box has a footnote.
[Text Displays]
Subject to completion.
[Video Footage]
The three connected boxes on the same line are in the 2024-2025 section.
[Text Displays]
Divestment SPDC (NG)
Execution of strategic asset
Investment Pause
HEFA [illegible] (NL)
Cultural change through discipline
Integrated JV
with Equinox (UK)
Challenge existing business model
[Video Footage]
An arrow joins these boxes to the objective category.
[Text Displays]
Significant Strategic Decisions.
[Video Footage]
The next row has two boxes in 2023.
[Text Displays]
Investment
Qatar LNG (NFE ^ NFS)
Investment
Oman LNG Extension
[Video Footage]
There are four boxes in the 2024-2025 section.
[Text Displays]
Acquisition
Pavillion (SG¹)
FID
Manatee (TT)
Investment
Ruwais (AD) LNG¹
FID
Surat Phase 2 (AU)
[Video Footage]
An arrow joins these boxes to the objective category.
[Text Displays]
Leading Integrated Gas & LNG Business.
[Video Footage]
The next line has two boxes in 2023.
[Text Displays]
Acquisition
Nature Energy (DK)
Divestment
Shell Energy B2C (EU)
[Video Footage]
There are three boxes in the 2024-2025 section.
[Text Displays]
Divestment
Pakistan Mobility
Divestment
SouthCoast Wind (US)
Acquisition
Rhode Island (US) CCGT
[Video Footage]
An arrow joins these boxes to the objective category.
[Text Displays]
Most Customer-Focused Energy Marketer & Trader.
[Video Footage]
The next line has one box in 2023.
[Text Displays]
FID
Sparta (US)
[Video Footage]
There are four boxes in the 2024-2025 section.
[Text Displays]
FID
Atopu-2 (BR)
FID
Vito Phase 2 (US)
FID
Bonga North (NG)
FID
Gato do Mato (BR)
[Video Footage]
An arrow joins these boxes to the objective category.
[Text Displays]
Sustain Material Liquids Production.
SINEAD GORMAN:
On Singapore, we moved from strategic review to divestment at pace, with the transaction expected to complete next week. We announced, signed, and recently completed the divestment of SPDC which has been an overhang on our stock for some time. We showed cultural change in action by pausing HEFA, responding to a changing context, making a difficult decision with a project in flight, which is something we have not done enough of in our history. And finally, we showed a willingness to challenge long-held positions, such as our presence in the North Sea, whilst exercising both agility and creativity in announcing a new JV which will leave the combined entity better off than the status quo. We used the phrase "Pragmatic in our approach, dynamic in our response," at CMD23 and we hope as we stand here today at CMD25, that you can certainly see this in action and you should expect much more to come.
[Video Footage]
The slide changes to show a new screen regarding Shell’s balance sheet.
[Text Displays]
Shell
Balance sheet strengthened and well positioned for all environments
[Video Footage]
A header stretches above three boxes containing graphics.
[Text Displays]
Maintain a Strong Investment Grade Rating through the cycle
SINEAD GORMAN:
So, moving from the positioning of the portfolio to the positioning of our balance sheet. We stand here from a position of strength which we have worked really hard to create over a number of years. In fact, we have one of the strongest balance sheets amongst our peers and the strongest we have had in nearly a decade.
[Video Footage]
The left box contains a bar chart showing net debt over time.
[Text Displays]
Net debt.
[Video Footage]
The left y axis shows billions of dollars ranging from 0 to 100 in increments of 20.
[Text Displays]
$ billion. 0. 20. 40. 60. 80. 100.
[Video Footage]
The x axis shows the years that are represented by each of the yellow bars.
[Text Displays]
2015. 2016. 2017. 2018. 2019. 2020. 2021. 2022. 2023. 2024.
[Video Footage]
The right y axis shows percentage values ranging from 0% to 30% in intervals of 10.
[Text Displays]
0%. 10%. 20%. 30%.
[Video Footage]
Below the bar chart is a colour-coded legend, showing what the yellow of the bars represents and the red which is represented as a line above the bars showing clearing.
[Text Displays]
Net debt. Clearing.
[Video Footage]
The second graphic shows a bar chart representing net debt but this time excluding leases.
[Text Displays]
Net debt excluding Leases.
[Video Footage]
The left y axis shows billions of dollars ranging from 0 to 100 in increments of 20.
[Text Displays]
$ billion. 0. 20. 40. 60. 80. 100.
[Video Footage]
The x axis shows the years that are represented by each of the yellow bars.
[Text Displays]
2015. 2016. 2017. 2018. 2019. 2020. 2021. 2022. 2023. 2024.
[Video Footage]
The right y axis shows percentage values ranging from 0% to 30% in intervals of 10.
[Text Displays]
0%. 10%. 20%. 30%.
[Video Footage]
Below the bar chart is a colour-coded legend, showing what the yellow of the bars represents and that the red which is represented as a line above the bars showing clearing.
[Text Displays]
Net debt. Clearing.

SINEAD GORMAN:
Excluding leases, our net debt at the end of 2024 was around 10 billion dollars, with gearing at 5 percent. Despite the progress we have made, we remain committed to maintaining a strong investment grade rating through the cycle, reinforcing the financial strength that underpins our long-term strategy.
[Video Footage]
The third box shows a bar chart which displays the net debt of Shell and four of its peers, broken down by coloured sections representing different parts of the debt.
[Text Displays]
2024 Net debt.
[Video Footage]
The left y axis shows billions of dollars ranging from 0 to 60 in increments of 10.
[Text Displays]
$ billion. 0. 10. 20. 30. 40. 50. 60.
[Video Footage]
The x axis contains labels for the five bars.
[Text Displays]
Peer 1. Shell. Peer 2. Peer 3. Peer 4.
[Video Footage]
Below the bars is a legend, showing the colour coding for the three colours of the chart.
[Text Displays]
Net debt excl. leases. Leases. Hybrid.
[Video Footage]
The page has a footnote.
[Text Displays]
Clearing: Net debt/[Net debt + Equity].
[Video Footage]
The slide changes to show a new screen regarding cash flow.
[Text Displays]
Shell
Portfolio strength delivers attractive free cash flow per share growth.
SINEAD GORMAN:
So, as Wael mentioned earlier, we have delivered on our free cash flow growth targets, and we remain confident that with our portfolio and performance focus…
[Video Footage]
The shot changes to show the whole stage again.
SINEAD GORMAN:
…free cash flow will continue to grow through 2030.
[Video Footage]
The shot returns to the split screen view.
SINEAD GORMAN:
We will further outline how we will achieve this when we delve into the respective businesses in the next section.
[Video Footage]
Below the title are three boxes containing bar chart graphics. The left box contains a bar chart regarding free cash flow growth.
[Text Displays]
Growing free cash flow. nFCF¹ ($ billion).
[Video Footage]
nFCF has a footnote.
[Text Displays]
¹Price-normalised. For price assumptions see Appendix.
[Video Footage]
The y axis of the chart ranges from 0 to 30 in increments of 10.
[Text Displays]
0. 10. 20. 30.
[Video Footage]
The x axis displays the three years which refer to each bar.
[Text Displays]
2024. 2028. 2030.
[Video Footage]
Below the bars is a key, showing the colour coding for the colours of the chart.
[Text Displays]
UP. IG. C&P. MKT. R&ES.
SINEAD GORMAN:
Our dividend remains a financial priority, and our confidence in sustaining a progressive approach is well supported, with our dividend break even at around 40 dollars per barrel.
[Video Footage]
The second box contains a bar chart regarding shareholder returns.
[Text Displays]
Resilient and predictable shareholder returns. $ billion.
[Video Footage]
Above the bars is a label.
[Text Displays]
$50/bbl Brent scenario.
[Video Footage]
The y axis of the chart shows numbers ranging from 0 to 50, in intervals of 25.
[Text Displays]
0. 25. 50.
[Video Footage]
The x axis contains the labels for the two bars.
[Text Displays]
Sources. Uses.
[Video Footage]
Below the bar chart is a colour-coded legend showing what the different colours making up the bars represent.
[Text Displays]
CFFO. Net Debt changes & Divestments. Interest and Other. Lease additions. Dividends. Cash capex. Share buybacks.
[Video Footage]
Below the bar chart is information on dividends and share buybacks.
[Text Displays]
Dividend break-even at ⁓$40 per barrel
Share buybacks at ⁓$50 per barrel
SINEAD GORMAN:
Additionally, given that we view share buybacks as an attractive use of our cash, we will continue to allocate capital towards buybacks, even at a 50 dollars per barrel world utilising our balance sheet strength if necessary. We have been clear that free cash flow per share is the key financial target for the company.
[Video Footage]
The third box contains a bar chart regarding free cash flow.
[Text Displays]
Growing free cash flow per share
nFCF¹ per share ($)
[Video Footage]
nFCF has the same footnote as the first bar chart on this page. The y axis of the chart shows numbers ranging from 0 to 10 in intervals of 5.
[Text Displays]
0. 5. 10.
[Video Footage]
The x axis shows the labels for the two bars.
[Text Displays]
2024. 2030.
[Video Footage]
Below the bar chart is a sub-heading.
[Text Displays]
>10% nFCF¹ per share growth p.a.
[Video Footage]
nFCF has a footnote.
[Text Displays]
¹Price-normalised. For price assumptions see Appendix.
SINEAD GORMAN:
At CMD23, we introduced a target of free cash flow per share of growth of greater than 10 percent per annum to 2025, and today, we are extending this target to 2030 as we drive intrinsic value creation. This is relative to 2024, based on organic free cash flow before working capital and derivatives, and at a 70 dollars per barrel Brent price in real terms. We have exercised discipline and focus to enable us to reach this position, and although we are pleased with where we are, we're not done yet.
[Video Footage]
The slide transitions to show a screen with information relating to Shell’s capital allocation approach.
[Text Displays]
Shell
Value led approach to capital allocation
SINEAD GORMAN:
So, let me tie all of that together and outline the rest of our financial framework.
[Video Footage]
At the top of the page is a header alongside an image of a set of scales.
[Text Displays]
Balanced Capital Allocation.
[Video Footage]
Below the header are two flow charts. The left flow chart contains information about distributions. The top box of the flow chart has the title with an image of a hand placing a dollar coin onto a stack of coins.
[Text Displays]
Total Distributions
Enhanced shareholder distributions 40-50% of CFFO through the cycle
[Video Footage]
This first box is then linked to two boxes below. The left box is about buybacks.
[Text Displays]
Prioritising Buybacks
13 consecutive quarter >$3 billion
[Video Footage]
This connects to another box below.
[Text Displays]
Intrinsic Value Creation
>10% p.a. nFCF¹/share growth
[Video Footage]
nFCF has a footnote.
[Text Displays]
¹Price-normalised. For price assumptions see Appendix.
[Video Footage]
The right branch of the flow chart regards dividends.
[Text Displays]
Dividend Consistency
+4% announced at Q4’24
[Video Footage]
The first box on the right is linked to another below.
[Text Displays]
Progressive Dividend
4% annual increase.
[Video Footage]
The flow chart on the right side of the slide regards Cash Capex and the header box contains an image of a sheet of paper with a dollar sign and bar chart on it.
[Text Displays]
Cash Capex
Disciplined Investment
$20-22 billion p.a. 2025-2028
[Video Footage]
The header box links to two boxes below. The left box regards IGU Capex.
[Text Displays]
IGU Capex
⁓$12-14 billion.
[Video Footage]
The right box regards DSR Capex.
[Text Displays]
DSR Capex
⁓$8 billion
[Video Footage]
Both the left and right boxes connect to the single box below.
[Text Displays]
Capital Reallocation
≥10% ROACE² across segments
[Video Footage]
ROACE has a footnote.
[Text Displays]
²ROACE is normalised to $70/bbl Brent.
[Video Footage]
Below the two bar charts is a sub-header.
[Text Displays]
Balance Sheet
Maintain a Strong Investment Grade Rating through the cycle
SINEAD GORMAN:
A progressive dividend growing 4 percent annually, cash CapEx spend of 20-22 billion dollars allocated towards higher-returning businesses, payout percentage increased to 40 to 50 percent of CFFO, preferentially allocating towards buybacks, all whilst maintaining a strong investment grade rating. As I said in 2023, we take our responsibility as custodians of our shareholders' capital extremely seriously. We believe in pragmatism and balance, allocating capital based on value. We remain confident in our path forward and free cash flow generation. So, in summary, a strong balance sheet and a strong portfolio mean a stronger Shell and that is good for investors. With that, I'll hand it back to Wael.
[Video Footage]
The view changes to once again show the whole stage. Sinead Gorman walks across the stage to the right and stands next to a waist-height table. She is replaced by Wael Sawan who walks across the stage and stands behind the podium.
WAEL SAWAN:
Thank you, Sinead. At CMD23, we set out four financial targets and we clarified…
[Video Footage]
The shot changes to focus once again on Wael Sawan at the podium.
WAEL SAWAN:
…our four carbon targets during the Energy Transition Strategy in 2024. We've met the financial targets and we are on solid footing to achieve our carbon targets and ambition. So, today, we leave our carbon targets unchanged, while stretching the financial ones further. We're extending our target for free cash flow per share growth of more than…
[Video Footage]
The screen transitions to once again show a split screen view of the podium and the slide show.
WAEL SAWAN:
…10 percent per year through to 2030.
[Video Footage]
The slide transitions to show a new one regarding value and emissions.
[Text Displays]
Shell
Delivering more value, with less emissions
[Video Footage]
The slide has a sub-heading.
[Text Displays]
Profitability transitioning towards Net Zero by 2050
[Video Footage]
The slide has eight boxes, the four on the left regard profitability and the four on the right, environmental commitments.
The top left box contains an image of a flower whose petals contain a dollar sign, sprouting from a hand.
[Text Displays]
>10% nFCF per share growth p.a. through 2030¹
[Video Footage]
2030 has a footnote.
[Text Displays]
¹2024 to 2030, price-normalised, see Appendix for price assumptions.
[Video Footage]
The second top left box contains a hand placing a dollar coin onto a pile of coins.
[Text Displays]
Distributing 40-50% of CFFO to shareholders through the cycle
[Video Footage]
The bottom left-most box contains an image of a sheet of paper, with a dollar sign and a bar chart on it.
[Text Displays]
$5-7 billion structural cost reductions by end 2028²
[Video Footage]
2028 has a footnote.
[Text Displays]
²Cumulative from 2022 levels.
[Video Footage]
The inner bottom left box contains an image of a sheet of paper, with a dollar sign and a bar chart on it.
[Text Displays]
Cash Capex $20-22 billion p.a. 2025-2028
[Video Footage]
The inner top right box contains a cloud with CO2 written inside it and a down arrow.
[Text Displays]
Halve Scope 1 and 2 emissions under operational control by 2030, on a net basis³
[Video Footage]
Net basis has a number 3 footnote.
[Text Displays]
³2016 reference year.
[Video Footage]
The top right-most box contains a cloud with CH4 written inside it and a stop symbol.
[Text Displays]
Achieve near-zero methane emissions intensity by 2030⁴
[Video Footage]
2030 has the number 4 footnote.
[Text Displays]
⁴On an intensity basis.
[Video Footage]
The inner bottom right box contains a cloud with CO2 written inside it and a down arrow.
[Text Displays]
Reduce the net carbon intensity (NCI) of the products we sell by 15-20% by 2030³
[Video Footage]
2030 is followed by the number 3 footnote.
[Video Footage]
The bottom right-most box contains a cloud with CO2 written inside it and a down arrow.
[Text Displays]
Ambition to reduce customer emissions from use of our oil products by 15-20% by 2030⁵
[Video Footage]
2030 is followed by the number 5 footnote.
[Text Displays]
⁵Compared with 2021.
WAEL SAWAN:
We're increasing our structural cost reductions to 5 to 7 billion dollars by the end of 2028, lowering our capital spend to 20 to 22 billion dollars a year from 2025 to 2028, and increasing our shareholder distributions to 40 to 50 percent of CFFO through the cycle.
[Video Footage]
The screen transitions to show a new slide regarding investment through energy transition.
[Text Displays]
Shell
Our investment case through energy transition
[Video Footage]
The slide shows the outline of the Shell logo on the left in yellow with an arcing line between it and three text boxes on the right. Each text box contains a header and three bullet points.
WAEL SAWAN:
We've come to the end of the first part of our presentation. And before we go to Q&A, let me summarise our position.
[Video Footage]
The top box is regarding growth and resilience.
[Text Displays]
Growth and resilience through the energy transition.
• Committed to oil & gas growth with four to 4-5% CAGR in LNG sales to 2030 and sustained material liquids production of 1.4 million barrels per day by 2030.
• Investing ⁓$12-14 billion¹ in Leading Integrated Gas and Advantaged Upstream and $8 billion¹ in Downstream and Renewable & Energy Solutions.
• Repositioning portfolio and harnessing options to unlock value while capturing volatility upside from peer leading Trade & Supply capabilities.
WAEL SAWAN:
We're creating a portfolio that is built to win, that delivers more value with less emissions; that allocates capital and carbon with discipline and a value focus…
[Video Footage]
The second text box is regarding value growth.
[Text Displays]
Delivering intrinsic value growth through performance, discipline and simplification.
• Lowering cash capital spend to $20-22 billion p.a. in 2025-2028 and reducing structural costs by %5-7 billion by end-2028, compared to 2022.
• Drive ROACE² across segments by ≥10% by 2030 through focused investment and capital reallocation.
• Growing normalised Free Cash flow per share³ >10% p.a. through 2030.
[Video Footage] ROACE has a footnote.
[Text Displays]
² ROACE is normalised to $70/bbl Brent.
[Video Footage]
Free Cash flow per share has a footnote.
[Text Displays]
³2024 to 2030, for price assumptions see Appendix.
WAEL SAWAN:
…that accelerates delivery through performance, discipline, and simplification; and that rewards shareholders…
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The third box regards shareholder returns.
[Text Displays]
Competitive and resilient shareholder returns.
• Increasing shareholder distributions increased to 40-50% of CFFO through the cycle underpinned by well positioned Balance Sheet.
• 13 quarters of buybacks above $3 billion. Continued buybacks at ⁓$50/bbl.
• Progressive dividend of 4% p.a. supported by a low commodity price break-even of ⁓$40/bbl.
WAEL SAWAN:
with consistent, competitive, and resilient returns. We'll do this profitably for our shareholders, delivering both high returns on capital and high returns of capital. Thank you for your confidence and for your support. Mohammed back to you.
[Video Footage]
The view changes to once again show the full stage. The monitors in the arches now display a slide showing the New York skyline with the Shell logo outline in yellow. On the left of the slide is a text box.
[Text Displays] Q&A.
[Video Footage]
Wael Sawan leaves the podium and stands at the table with Sinead Gorman. Mohammed Hamid walks over and stands behind the podium.
MOHAMMED HAMID:
All right, thanks, Wael. Before we start, we'd really appreciate it if you could stick to…
[Video Footage]
The shot changes to once again show the podium with Mohammed Hamid standing behind it.
MOHAMMED HAMID:
…sort of one to two questions each to allow for as much time as possible. And please do state your name and firm. Hands are already going up, which is great. But, yeah, with that, let's start.
[Video Footage]
The shot changes to once again show the whole stage. Some of the audience members visible at the front tables are raising their hands. Mohammed Hamid gestures to one of the audience members with their hand up.
MOHAMMED HAMID:
I'll try and cover the room, and there are some online as well. Why don't we start here at the front? We've got a few. Let's go with Biraj first.
[Video Footage]
A woman holding a microphone walks from off camera towards the man who has been selected to ask a question and hands him the microphone. The man speaks into the microphone.
BIRAJ BORKHATARIA:
Hi, thanks for the presentation. It's Biraj Borkhataria, RBC. The slide that kind of stuck out to me was that slide 10, where you’re addressing head-on 20 percent of your capital employed is basically not generating adequate returns or negative returns in this case. And I'm assuming there's different answers to rectify that issue across the segments that you've outlined. But could you just walk us through in a bit more detail how you expect the path to go from minus 2 percent ROACE in those segments to a more adequate return? And then, the second question is just on kind of market perception. So, you've been on this journey since CMD23, the Sprint 1 I could argue is quite successful. Shares have outperformed the peers, but largely due to the earnings performance rather than the multiple. So, as you're thinking about the journey going forwards, is it now the time to start thinking about doing things, doing something more radical in terms of value unlock, or is that more of a discussion for a few years down the line as you develop this track record? Thank you.

WAEL SAWAN:
Thank you for that, Biraj. I think your first question, correct me if I'm wrong, Sinead…
[Video Footage]
The camera shot changes to focus on Wael Sawan and Sinead Gorman at the table. Wael Sawan gestures with his right hand as he speaks.
WAEL SAWAN:
…we will cover in a lot of detail when we go into the second phase. So, we will go, Biraj plan by plan on Chemicals, Power, and then some of the Low Carbon Options like LCF, hydrogen, and CCS. So, if you don't mind, let me park that and we'll come back to it. And if you feel that we haven't fully addressed that, we can come back in the second set of questions. On your second question around where we feel we are at the moment, I think firstly, we came here almost 18 months ago, 19 months ago, to be able to tell the story and to be able to re-earn confidence. And I do think we stand here today in a much better place having indeed built up a consistent track record of delivery, having had delivered on the promises we made, and having the momentum to be able to accelerate our strategy as the next version of this story. As you touched on whether it is measured on TSR improvement, which is some 30 percent, or whether it's on share performance, we have outperformed our peers, but we haven't fundamentally rerated. At the end of the day, what we are focused on is very much what are the sequence of actions we need to take to be able to achieve the outcomes. We've taken the first set of actions. Today, you'll hear a bit more about what we're doing for that 20 percent, including Chemicals, et cetera. You've seen us continue to revise upwards from 20 to 30 percent, all the way up to 40 to 50 percent, our distributions. We are confident as a result of that. We will continue to move in the right direction. And what you will see is that we will continue to focus on unlocking value for our shareholders through that sequencing of decisions that we are taking. And so, while all that's happening, the one big arbitrage opportunity that we are able to play for the benefit of life cycle returns for our shareholders is buybacks. And hopefully, what you've heard today with the 40 to 50 percent CFFO, the preferential allocation will continue to go after those buybacks. As Sinead said, with an ambition to be able to continue to grow that towards the potentially 40 percent of shares being purchased over the next five, six years.
[Video Footage]
The shot changes to once again show the whole stage.
MOHAMMED HAMID:
Okay. Should we just take a question there? Kelly at the front with Lydia, please?
LYDIA RAINFORTH:
Thank you. It's Lydia Rainforth from Barclays. Two questions, if I could. Sure of Shell, it's probably 20 years since I've heard that phrase actually used. So, can you just talk about the confidence level that you have to actually go back and use that and how much support there is internally actually for that? And then, secondly, just going back to the cash flow side of it, I think it was slide 11 where you have that really interesting chart of the longevity from Integrated Gas and Marketing actually growing into next decade and sustaining. And ultimately, that looks it covers where your CapEx level is today. But, is that part of what gives you confidence around that 40 to 50 percent number, being able to sustain that longer term and potentially more?
WAEL SAWAN:
I can come back to the first one. Did you want to start with the second one?
SINEAD GORMAN:
Sure, no, indeed. And thank you, Lydia. And the only thing I will say, it's really nice…
[Video Footage]
The shot changes to focus on Sinead Gorman, from the waist up.
SINEAD GORMAN:
…to be able to say with confidence, "You can be sure in Shell." It has a resonation across the organisation. In terms of the cash flows, you're right. So, on that chart, what we're trying to show you is the different parts of our business. So, of course, we have upside potential without a doubt in terms of price. And you see that through our Upstream and Integrated Gas businesses. But, what you see and why we put Marketing and IG together was exactly that growth potential. So, the IG or Integrated Gas business through our belief in terms of LNG sales, you see that 4 to 5 percent coming through, but also Marketing. And what you'll hear a little bit more about later is really about how we intend to generate even more cash flows from those businesses. So, you hear us talk about premium, et cetera, and where we expect to go there. But, those combined actually add sort of that growth story for the company. There's much more to the growth story. And we can take that through and unlock it a little bit more as we proceed. But, there is that confidence. Beyond that, of course, is the growth that we see in terms of Upstream as well. When you put Upstream and Integrated Gas together, you end up with a 1 percent production growth CAGR through to 2030. And that's really well backstopped by projects, which we'll delve into the specific projects and where we see the break evens of those coming up.
[Video Footage]
The shot changes to once again show the full stage.
WAEL SAWAN:
Thanks, Sinead. On the, "You can be sure of Shell," I think if I step back for a moment, Lydia…
[Video Footage]
The shot changes to focus on Wael Sawan from the waist up.
WAEL SAWAN:
…what are the winning characteristics of a company in our sector? Firstly, consistency of delivery and distributions. Secondly, resilience through the cycle to the energy transition. And thirdly, disciplined capital allocation and making the right calls even when the macro is challenged. So, the "You can be sure of Shell" for us from an investor lens is making sure that we're playing across these. But, you're exactly right to broaden, "You can be sure of Shell." It starts with the confidence that our customers have to buy our products. It starts with our staff, our people, who hopefully many are watching today, there's a spring in their step. And I have to acknowledge, it's been hard because we are changing a very big company. I still remember walking off the stage after CMD23 and no one asking me about the content, but saying to me, "The monster is going to consume you, guys. You won't be able to deliver what you're saying." This is a testament to them and what they've been able to do over the years. And once we have that spring in the step, that's why we can start to move forward. And so, the "You can be sure of Shell" for me is, yes, confidence, but importantly, with humility because the world is uncertain. And what we need to be able to do is to focus on what's in front of us, what we can control, and to build that confidence through the good and the bad times, and to be able to have a team that's hungry to win and to be able to hold on to that mantra well into the future.
[Video Footage]
The shot changes to once again show the whole stage. Some of the audience members visible at the front raise their hands.
MOHAMMED HAMID:
Shall we take the table at the back? Paul.
[Video Footage]
A woman walks onto stage from the right-hand side and places glasses of water in front of Wael Sawan and Sinead Gorman.
PAUL CHENG:
Thank you. Paul Cheng, Scotiabank. We are just curious that, I mean, comparing to your peers, they are targeting to grow their liquid production. You, guys, is looking to stay flat for the next several years. Is it a function of your view on the global oil market or that is more opportunity or organisational capability and limit to make you make that decision? And what kind of reserve replacement target that you have? The second question. If we look at fuel, I think one big thing for you and Sinead is that simplification and make it more efficient organisation. Can you give us an example? Are we talking about cutting off some of the layer? I mean, with your recent announcement in the management change, you actually have two heads for Integrated Gas and Upstream instead of one head before. So, we're just trying to understand that. I mean, how that reconcile in terms of simplification and make it more efficient? Thank you.
WAEL SAWAN:
Thank you very much. Let me take the second question if you want to address the liquids one. The blessing and the curse of being…
[Video Footage]
The shot changes to focus on the table with Wael Sawan and Sinead Gorman standing behind it.
WAEL SAWAN:
…a 115-year-old company with an incredible portfolio is that over time, you allow bureaucracy and complexity to creep into the organisation. And a big part of the Sprint was to just call it out and start to be able to declutter that. A couple of points you touched on there. I mean, one around how we are structured, I think organisationally. Zoe and Huibert have made a huge contribution to getting us to where we are today. What we have announced recently is that colleagues who were reporting into them have essentially moved up. So, we have delayered the organisation because in this step of the journey, what we want is much shorter lines of communication. We're doing the same, by the way, with our capital allocation, where one of the biggest things you should take away from today's presentation is, A, performance going further, and two, an appetite by this management team to go after capital reallocation in favour of unlocking healthier returns out of every dollar we are employing. And so, we are moving the role of capital allocation squarely to Sinead and myself with the support of the incoming executive committee, to really get much tighter on a much more frequent cadence around this. Those are some of the bigger examples of simplification. Sinead touched on things like travel and the like, how we've been able to just do work in different ways, but there are multiple examples. I do these recognition calls on a regular basis, and one that sort of came through recently from legal, for example. We do thousands of non-disclosure agreements, all requiring a lawyer to prepare. Through one of our business operations in Krakow in Poland, we have now developed essentially a risk-based NDA, where some 85 to 90 percent of our NDAs, you can press a button and have them without talking to a lawyer, and 10 to 15 percent require or get escalated to a lawyer because of the context. There are 20 of those examples and we can talk about them in the break. The point being, every single one of these is now starting to come bottom up. And that to me is the sign of culture change. Sinead.
SINEAD GORMAN:
Thank you. Paul, you're going to have to wait until I do the oil. Your first one was really around our views on the global oil markets, et cetera, and why our liquids production you commented on is flat. So, what I'd remind you of is we very much believe in the need for oil and gas for decades and decades to come, specifically on oil, which is what you're referring to here. So, our liquids production, what we're looking to do is, of course, ensure we maintain or sustain that very material levels going out. What you'll see as we talk through in the next section is we'll talk into a little bit more detail on it. We'll talk about the fact that whilst we have very attractive businesses, there is a decline rate to that and we will continue to invest to be able to have that materiality going through. There is no cap. That's not what we're suggesting on that. We're basically just simply giving you a view out to 2030, which is not priced in at the moment. So, I think that's very important because I don't see you pricing that in. So, that's showing you that we will be able to maintain all the way through to 2030. It's not about organisational capability or anything else. It's purely about our focus on ensuring that we backstop out to 2030 and show you line of sight to 2035, which will be the next discussion. You also alluded to sort of the reserve's replacement targets. You've heard me say this before. I don't have a target. What I care about more is how I make money out of this stuff. And therefore, it's very much focused in terms of the high-margin barrels that will come through. We'll spend a little bit of time on it in the second section, where you'll see some of the numbers that are thinking around that, which is why I'm not going to go into more detail now.
[Video Footage]
The shot changes to show the whole stage once again. Some audience members raise their hands.
MOHAMMED HAMID:
All right. We'll show some love to this side of the room. Michele's got his hand up at the front here.
MICHELE DELLA VIGNA:
Michele Della Vigna from Goldman Sachs. Congratulations on the very strong delivery since the last Capital Markets Day. I wanted to ask you really one question in two parts. We see two big discrepancies in valuation. On one side, the issue of some of the parts, for instance, your marketing business could easily trade on 10 times of EBITDA. As Shell, you trade between three and four. And then, the other big discrepancy is U.S. versus European valuation. I was wondering, clearly, you're doing everything you can to improve the quality of the business, the resilience, and the profitability. But, at some point, do these discrepancies come to the point where something needs to be done? And on one side, for instance, for Marketing, I'm thinking, do the synergies with the rest of the business justify keeping a business that could be so valuable on a standalone basis? And on the other side, I think also the issue of relocation, clearly very complex, very difficult to execute. But, at some point, if that valuation gap really doesn't close year after year with improvement in returns, is there something that needs to be considered?
WAEL SAWAN:
Given this is one question, two parts, do you want to kick off and then I can supplement?
SINEAD GORMAN:
Does that mean I get to go in either direction?
[Video Footage]
The shot changes to focus on Sinead Gorman from the waist up.
SINEAD GORMAN:
Ooh, this is good. I'll give you the relocation one because I think that's more suited for the CEO at the moment. The Marketing business. So, per your point, let's just take it back to what's the principle. Our overriding principle is about creating intrinsic value. You know that. That's exactly what's on our mind. There are no sacred cows in this company. We look at exactly where we can realise value across all parts of it. And you see it whether that's going after things in the North Sea, which has been core to our heart. We are in the North Sea, and yet we're creating a joint venture. But, we saw an opportunity. We saw an opportunity to partner with somebody else to create value. So, when you talk about our Marketing business and we'll spend some time on it later, which I realise I keep dancing back to later on these, what we're doing there is focusing in on improving the underlying. So, improving the actual performance of that and I hope you see that. I think there's some team here who'll be able to answer some of the detail for you at the table as well. But, what they are doing is actually driving improved varieties across that business and it's coming through. They're really delivering each and every day on that. We see a huge amount of integration for our Marketing business. It creates a short and I think Wael talked about that a little bit in the speech as well. So, our trading business is able to maximise value. And frankly, what we see is an awful lot of the trading houses trying to buy into some of these, whereas we have that integrated chain. I'll leave you to do the U.S.
[Video Footage]
The shot changes rapidly a couple of times before settling on the view of the whole stage.
WAEL SAWAN:
Yeah, thank you, Sinead. Michele, thank you for the question. Let's step back.
[Video Footage]
The shot changes to focus on Wael Sawan from the waist up.
WAEL SAWAN:
So, where were we in 2023? At the end of the day, I have to trust that the market is going to value a share in the right way. We have a very comfortable proportion of U.S. investors in the Shell share. So, we went back to fundamentals. That's what we believe in. The fundamentals said at 20 to 30 percent, we weren't distributing sufficiently and we were inconsistent in our delivery. So, the Sprint was a compressed two 10-quarter window to really just re-earn that confidence around the consistency and the competitiveness. And so, we addressed one part of it, but we're not done. The other part that we still need to do is to continue to improve that competitiveness. But, it is important to recognise that the longevity question has been a big question. And that's what we want to also try to dispel today. You've seen the first part of dispelling it, which is the IG, the marketing growth. You'll see a bit more, as Sinead has already alluded to, around the underlying liquids growth. I would very much like when you walk out of the room today to have line of sight, not to 2028 only, but to 2040. This is what this company is building. It's building for the decades ahead, not for the next couple of years ahead. In addition to that, we are looking to build resilience because we're quick to forget the difficult times. Today, we are still in a very healthy macro overall. And so, we want to build the resilience that gives us the ability to navigate, whether it's through buybacks at 50 dollars or potentially countercyclical moves. That's what we're trying. We're playing this game for the long run, not trying to sort of get a sugar rush for our share price in the short term. That's not what we're doing. What you can be assured of is the following. We are always going to look at opportunities to unlock more value for our shareholders. And we will be very deliberate and methodical in the way we're going to sequence our moves to make sure that we are pushing the right buttons at the right points in time, so that over the coming few years, we truly are able to realise the value that sits within our portfolio.
[Video Footage]
The shot changes to once again show the full stage. Several audience members raise their hands.
MOHAMMED HAMID:
Okay. Over here, Rodger.
[Video Footage]
The woman with the microphone appears from off camera and passes it to an audience member.
RODGER READ:
Thank you. Rodger Reed, Wells Fargo. The 2 to 4 percent uplift in trading returns, we've come off a pretty volatile last few years, so 2 percent. And volatility, generally speaking, helps that business. What should we be looking for over the next say to '28 or 2030 to get to the 4 percent? Has there been a restraint on this business that's being released? Is it a function of increased LNG or more electricity trading? I'm just curious how you get there and then how you think about the risk that you need to manage in putting a larger trading target out.
SINEAD GORMAN:
Yeah. So, our trading capability is core, Rodger. You're right. It's something that differentiates us and has been able to…
[Video Footage]
The shot changes to once again show Wael Sawan and Sinead Gorman standing behind the table.
SINEAD GORMAN:
…allow us to extract value compared to many others. What we did was actually give you a 10-year look back, which is why we gave you the sort of greater than 2 percent. We'd gone obviously to closer years with the volatility. It would have been much higher. And that's why we went longer. We're trying to give you that long-term view, as Wael said, to be able to build through decades here. Our trading business is core to what we do as a capability rather than a business. It manages to use the assets from our different business leaders here. And of course, one of the things that Wael has done is to bring trading up to his executive committee so that he has line of sight. He has that ability to be able to optimise across it, which means there'll be much more integrated in everything that we do. What do we really need to do? We need to get out of their way and allow them to be able to actually focus in on where they can create different value. We have strong constraints around them in terms of the sandbox that they operate on. This is not freedom to do whatever they wish to do. Be very clear on that. It's very much about ensuring that they understand the liquidity, the impact on the group, and the volatility that comes with them. And it's a dialogue. And that's where having Andrew sitting at the table with us, being able to have that discussion, allows us just to unlock. We're very much focused. You see it in our leases actually, we have a higher amount of leases than frankly, any others of our peers. And that is because of our trading business. It's in service of our trading capability. Why do we allow for that? Because of the returns that they manage to generate. You see it in our LNG business with the shipping that we have. You now see it as we move towards Power, and we'll discuss it a little bit later as well. The move towards flex, you'll see it in flexible generation and a move there. But, that will allow Machteld to make some core decisions and make sure that she's integrating to ensure that she actually maximises or gets the benefit from the trading capability. So, it's more of the same rather than change, but it's about making it more visible and hoping that you see the visibility of it and we can extract even more value.
WAEL SAWAN:
Thank you.
[Video Footage]
The shot changes to once again show the full stage. Several audience members raise their hands.
MOHAMMED HAMID:
Question at the back there. Kelly.
JASON GABELMAN:
Yeah, hey, Jason Gabelman from TD Cowen. You mentioned that if you do M&A, it's likely in the Integrated Gas and Upstream. And this is kind of continuing on a theme that we've heard. But, as you think about what U.S. peers have done, where they've kind of done large M&A and upstream to shore up their resource base out beyond the 2020s, into the 2030s. And that's clearly a point you're trying to drive home. To what extent is that something you want to accomplish over the next 10 to 15 years? And then, tied to that, as you think about your capital framework, the 40 to 50 percent CFFO to buybacks, if an opportunity arises that makes you test that level, would you consider changing it? Thanks.
WAEL SAWAN:
Let's break it into two. Let me start with the M&A and maybe if you want to talk to the financial framework.
[Video Footage]
The shot changes to once again show Wael Sawan and Sinead Gorman standing behind the table.
WAEL SAWAN:
We were clear, I think in the Sprint that we saw significant value in our own shares. And therefore, every marginal dollar was going to more likely be allocated to buybacks. Our share price was depressed, particularly compared to peers. And we didn't feel that using our paper for that purpose was the best approach. And hopefully, you've seen us stick to that despite, on a weekly basis, a rumour that we were going to go buy someone or buy it. We've been very focused on it. Now, where we are today is I hope we have earned the confidence of our shareholders to be able to make value-based decisions. The great news is with the 20 to 22 billion dollars of capital over the next three years, we can deliver 10 percent plus free cash flow per share growth. That's just doing our thing. That already makes it one of the most compelling stories, I suspect, in our peer group. And that's without doing anything beyond that. It is also true that our Integrated Gas and our Marketing businesses have a very good runway, as we've described up to the 2040. Upstream has a runway through to 2030 and beyond. But, of course, we will opportunistically look at a bolt-on, an opportunity to be able to go inorganic if we see something that's accretive, but the bar is very, very high. The bar has to be high because the alternative is to deploy that capital into our buybacks. The final thing I'd say is one of the slides we used up there around the vision is a very important slide. I shared that with the organisation two, three weeks ago now. We've now really tried to articulate what is the company that Shell will look like in the future, in 2035. Anything we can do to be able to continue to accelerate the realisation of that vision, we will look into and it has to be matched with a positive contribution to free cash flow per share. Otherwise, what's the point? It is not strategy without value delivery nor value delivery that's aimlessly going around the place. It is going to have to be the combination. So, where does that leave us from a financial framework, Sinead?
SINEAD GORMAN:
In a wonderful place. Because, as you know, we have spent the last couple of years shoring up our balance sheet. We did it purposefully, we did it with intent, and we made sure that we end up with a peer-leading balance sheet at the end of the day. I talked about where we are from a debt perspective. We're incredibly low. At the end of 2024, less than 5 percent gearing without leases in place. So, where does that leave us at the moment? It leaves us with a balance sheet that's robust throughout any scenario, whether that's a scenario of M&A, whether it's a scenario with oil prices, et cetera, it gives us space and it gives us room compared to others. At the same time, of course, we're driving that share price up, which makes our paper more valuable. But, at the heart of all of this is back to creating value for our shareholders. And while you talked about it, the free cash flow per share, but also those distributions that 40 to 50 percent. I wouldn't be standing here telling you 40 to 50 percent if I didn't believe we could do it through the cycle. And that's really what we've been aiming to do. That balance sheet is there for us to lean on if we need to lean on it, but fundamentally, it's about making sure we as a management team drive the free cash flow of this business to give us those options into the future.
[Video Footage]
The shot changes to once again show the full stage. Several audience members raise their hands.
MOHAMMED HAMID:
Okay. Martin.
[Video Footage]
The woman with the microphone passes it to one of the men seated at the front, central table. The man speaks into the microphone.
MARTIN RUSSELL:
Yeah, hi. Hello, it's Martin Russell, Morgan Stanley. I've got two questions, if I may. I appreciate that there are a couple of lines in the statement about the sort of intending to stay a leading player in global gas and LNG, and it gives good sort of strategic direction of travel. And I think it's a helpful description. I wanted to pick you up on the intend to stay a leading LNG player. And specifically, I wanted to ask you what you think the investments you would need to do to stay there because clearly the global LNG business is growing. Are you looking for new FIDs? What kind of investments are required to stay at the front? And the other one I wanted to ask you related to the current situation. Clearly, trading is very important for Shell. It's a major earnings contributor. But also, at the moment, we're in a world with tariffs, counter-tariffs. You mentioned the archipelago scenario. I had to think back to mountains and oceans. To me, it looked more like mountains and oceans. Maybe it's archipelago. Anyway, it feels like sort of trade barriers are growing. And look, it's hard to look inside your trading business, but I can imagine that it has some sort of implication, either a tailwind. It could be that perhaps we have more dislocations in the market that your traders could benefit from. Maybe it's a headwind that trading just becomes more difficult as these barriers go up. And I was wondering if you could give us a perspective on how that situation could impact this part of the company.
WAEL SAWAN:
Martin, when you start to know the names…
[Video Footage]
The shot changes to focus once again on Wael Sawan from the waist up.
WAEL SAWAN:
…of all of our scenarios in the past, it shows how long you've been covering us. So, thank you for that. Let me cover the first one and then Sinead can talk a bit to where our trading situation is at the moment. You're right, Martin. And this was what I talked about two to three weeks ago with the organisation was crystallising that vision, the purpose of the company, what we're trying to do and what is it all in service of, as well as the how we're going to do it. And it's a big statement to make to be the world's leading integrated energy company. What does it entail? At the heart of it, and we'll get into some of the details around this, I think it requires courage of conviction. LNG is a great example. We are absolutely convinced in every scenario, LNG is going to grow, whether it's driven by the Asian demand growth, whether it is driven by coal to gas switching in general, whether it's the adjacency with the Renewables, to be able to make sure that the grid has the sufficient backup, whether it's the AI boom in the U.S. and beyond. Gas is going to be key, and LNG is going to grow from 13 percent of the overall gas mix to around 20 percent. So, a real focus. In that space, that courage of conviction means delivering what we have and potentially taking more opportunities as they come. We don't need a lot of inorganic there. It's very clear where we're going. You look at the list of projects we have, and you can see that we can build runway through to the 2040s. In Upstream, it does require investment. And again, you'll see later on close to a million barrels per day of projects coming on stream to be able to deliver that on a compelling break-even price. And then, in our ambition/vision to become the most customer-focused energy marketer and trader, that doesn't require massive new capital. It's already factored into the 8 billion that we're going to be putting into Downstream and Renewables, and that allows us to methodically grow that business to be able to have the resilience and the cash flow support in the future. So, what you're hearing today is a vision that organically can deliver a lot of that, with selective opportunities to be able to accelerate fast pace as it and when they come. Sinead.
[Video Footage]
The shot changes to show the full stage once again.
SINEAD GORMAN:
And in terms of the trading capability, I think the important thing here is we're not a pure trading house.
[Video Footage]
The shot changes to once again focus on Sinead Gorman from the waist up.
SINEAD GORMAN:
We have that linkage into the assets, which means it's a little bit of a different scenario for us than some of the pure trading houses because fundamentally, this group of people will produce the flows that our traders can actually use. So, whilst yes, we're seeing a lot of different headlines and different changes and regulations occurring day in and day out at the moment. What it means is they have certainty of supply coming through and they have the ability to optimise so they can take those volumes and move them to where they need to be. Volatility is something we like. We've talked about it before. Our trading capability helps us be able to deliver against it. The nature of that volatility is a little bit different at the moment. We're conscious of that. So, as an organisation, we're taking a little bit of a pause to say where do we want to play with the volatility and where we don't. That's just at this moment in time. So, I wouldn't characterise it as headwinds specifically, what I would say is it allows us to be able to extract the value that we have from the underlying businesses more and focus on that, and the traders are watching that and just taking their positions with focus. As I said back to those sandboxes we give them, it makes sure that they don't go too far outside of that.
MOHAMMED HAMID:
All right, thank you. Just as a quick process check, Wael and Sinead were clearly eager to get through the presentation, and we finished a bit earlier than anticipated. So, let's end the Q&A at 10:15.
[Video Footage]
The shot changes to focus on Mohammed Hamid at the podium.
MOHAMMED HAMID:
But, still stick to the 15-minute break to respect those of our colleagues and investors and others who have joined online. So, we'll do that. The question at the front here, Doug.
[Video Footage]
The shot changes to once again show the full stage. Several audience members raise their hands. The woman with the microphone walks through the audience and passes it to a man seated at the front.
DOUG LEGGATE:
Thanks, Mohammed. Thank you for the presentation, guys. It's great to see the update. I guess I'm trying to decipher the numbers. It's Doug Leggate from Wolfe Research. Incidentally, I'm looking at slide 18, and I'm listening to the commentary that Sinead, you said you could buy back 40 percent. Do you think you can buy back 40 percent of the stock through 2030? You're also using a flat real oil price, which gets us to about 80 dollars by 2030. So, my question is, what is the free cash flow growth in absolute terms over that period? And my follow-up, I guess, is that Wael, you talked about taking tough decisions during the macro cycles, your balance sheet is in fantastic shape. So, I guess my question there would be, are you prepared to lean on the balance sheet to execute your buyback plan?
WAEL SAWAN:
Second question, absolutely. First question.
SINEAD GORMAN:
That was short. We're going a bit fast on some of these. Now, Mohammed's going to point out.
[Video Footage]
The shot changes to once again show Wael Sawan and Sinead Gorman standing behind the table.
SINEAD GORMAN:
No, indeed, Doug, there's two things. Yeah, so leaning on the balance sheet, I'll just confirm that we created a balance sheet to be able to lean on it. That's exactly what it is. We need to look through quarters. There will be volatility quarter on quarter. You've seen us do it before where we've ended up continuing to focus in on the buybacks. Even though free cash flow had come down in a certain quarter, that's what we do. We look through. In terms of the free cash flow growth, so let's just take a step back and look at it. So, the scenario we gave up up to 40 percent, some 40 percent through 2030. You're absolutely right, it was done on flat. It's a scenario which just to give a bit of a feel and it's at these share prices to be clear. So, you keep mispricing us, we'll keep buying back shares. That's really what the message I wanted to give around that. So, when you look at our free cash flow per share target, we've talked about 10 percent CAGR through 2030. Of course, it's not always linear. You'll know that there will be different periods during it. But, you know what we're doing at the moment, so even if you just take what we've been doing in the last couple of years, it's really at 6 to 7 percent in terms of buybacks. So, you can see that coming through. So, therefore, where do I need to see growth? Where do I need to see growth? I see it in a number of places. I see it in terms of Marketing and we discussed that earlier in terms of both our Mobility and our Lubricants business. You see real growth coming through on that, and we'll detail it out a little bit more in the coming period. We see it in terms of our Chemicals business. So, some of the changes that we're making, whether that's in terms of divesting Singapore when that comes through, or Monaca and getting it up and running, that shows growth in our cash flows as well. That's ignoring most of the macro. So, I'm ignoring those aspects. Power. You look at our Power business of where it is now as we move towards flex. There's some growth in there as well, and we can detail further numbers later on if you'd like to go through it. Those aspects and beyond that, if I were to check structural OpEx coming out, if I were to look at trading, which we have not priced in in a significant amount, we've got a baseline through our organisation. Sorry, through our numbers here. It is a flat sort of area to be somewhat conservative on it. That gives me the confidence in terms of being able to say, can I easily backstop that 3 to 4 percent of absolute growth coming through? We've totally ignored, by the way, the LNG side of things as well. Absolutely, I can. And that's without macro or anything else added into it. So, I'm pretty confident in terms of that absolute growth coming.
MOHAMMED HAMID:
Over here. Paul.
[Video Footage]
The shot changes to once again show the full stage.
PAUL SANKEY:
Thanks, Mohammed. Paul Sankey, independent research. The part B of my question actually was just asked which was about the relocation potential requoting of Shell in this building. And I have to say my view is completely changed. And I now think that being the number one stock in the UK, dominant global LNG player delivering will potentially be a very powerful thing for you. That was the second question, which was about relocating, which was going to follow on from your meeting last week in the White House. And our understanding was that it was a two-and-a-half-hour meeting. Donald Trump was present for the entire meeting and was engaged. And there was no discussion of oil price nor OPEC for antitrust reasons. But, anything that you could say about your perspective on the meeting as Shell would be very helpful to us here. Thank you.
WAEL SAWAN:
Thanks, Paul. Firstly, it was, of course, a privilege…
[Video Footage]
The shot changes to once again show Wael Sawan and Sinead Gorman standing behind the table.
WAEL SAWAN:
…to be in the White House. And the U.S. is a major, major source of our investment dollars. Actually, the highest capital employed sits in the U.S. for us. I think a couple of points. Firstly, really good to be able to see the energy sector back at the top of the agenda. We welcome that support because for far too long, I think the narrative has ignored some of the basic provision of energy, of which oil and gas continue to be a critical, critical part. So, what was very clear was the administration's support, which we very strongly welcome. In addition to that... ...what became clearer and clearer is the role that Shell is playing here in the U.S. is particularly powerful. And I'll just give you three examples. We are the largest operator and producer in the Gulf of America. And it's very clear that the administration is going to go back to much more predictable leasing of lease sales, which is critical. We're building infrastructure that is amongst the lowest cost, lowest carbon intensity molecules anywhere in the world. And the ability to be able to be the largest player following through on that opportunity, I think is key. And to that was a key element. Secondly, we're the largest LNG offtaker from the U.S. With the removal of the pause on LNG, and I think a real acknowledgement that LNG plays a critical role in the energy transition, that again is positioning a company like Shell to do our bit to be able to bring value. And the third bit is what we're doing, in particular, in our Chemical space, in a place like Pennsylvania, bringing jobs, investing in an environment that is advantaged in so many ways, feedstock wise, the proximity of our customers, and so on and so forth. And so, it was pleasing walking out of that meeting and reflecting, is the administration's agenda misaligned with ours in any way and saying, actually, in so many different areas, there's very strong alignment. And we're very proud to do our bit as well to be able to bring affordable energy to the folks here in the U.S. and beyond.
PAUL SANKEY:
[INDISCERNIBLE]
WAEL SAWAN:
Indeed, that's a separate topic. Thanks, Paul.
[Video Footage]
The shot changes to once again show the full stage.
MOHAMMED HAMID:
All right, so we've got about four minutes or so left. So, why don't we make this the final question? And then, after this, we'll take a 15-minute break. For those joining online, please stay connected as we will make sure we're here sharply at that point. Maybe Matt at the front here.
[Video Footage]
Another woman with a microphone walks into the audience and pass the microphone to man before sitting in a nearby chair.
MATT LOFTING:
Thanks. Matt Lofting at JP Morgan. You've referenced several times the point while on longevity and clearly extending the free cash flow per share growth objective to '30 speaks. I wonder if you can just put perhaps more of an industrial or resource-based slant onto how Shell has looked at the '20 to '22 CapEx frame and some of the analytics that you've assessed in terms of being confident and having conviction that that's a sufficient level of spend to sustain the business through 2030. And then, second, when you talk about being the most customer-focused marketer in the industry, can you just talk about how Shell operationalises that viewpoint and perhaps where the competitive edge around that is given that I'm sure several of Shell's peers would aspire to the same thing? Thank you.
WAEL SAWAN:
Thank you very much, Matt. Let me take the second one and invite Sinead to reflect on the first one.
[Video Footage]
The shot changes to focus once again on Wael Sawan from the waist up.
WAEL SAWAN:
I think, and I touched on it in the speech, the moats, if I could use that word. The moats that we have built are very difficult to replicate. We're talking about not just selling to the customer, but the arteries that deliver energy, whether it's molecules or electrons, to the customers. The strength of that part of our business is the bread-and-butter pipelines. It's the storage terminals. It's the access into the airports to be able to supply 20 percent of SAF to North America and to Europe. It's our globally leading LNG bunkering facility, of which we have 12 ships delivering LNG to our customers all around the world. Those elements put together allow us to play across that entire value chain, from point source of production through to those infrastructure control points into relationships that we have built with our customers, with a brand that is recognised with the best example. People say to me, "Well, you talk about a 50-billion-dollar worth brand, what does that mean?" Put aside the number. What it means is, when we have typically acquired a retail site and rebranded it to Shell, the volume increase, and David Bunch is here who runs our Mobility business. Just ask him about some of the numbers that we get to by rebranding. It's how do we leverage that in every part of that energy value chain. And those are the elements we're looking to continue to hone. It is an asset right. I'm very deliberate in those words. Asset right rather than an asset-light or an asset-heavy. It's an asset right investment to be able to continue to build those control points for the energy system of today and to build for the energy system of the future, and making sure that we continue to play through the power of our Marketing businesses and the power of our trading capability. To really own that space is something which we are very deliberate in pursuit of.
[Video Footage]
The shot changes to once again show the full stage.
SINEAD GORMAN:
And Matt, on the capital frame, let's take a little bit of a step back on this.
[Video Footage]
The shot changes to focus once again on Sinead Gorman from the waist up.
SINEAD GORMAN:
So, first and foremost, my focus is on just the given, delivering the dividend, and delivering that progressive dividend. So, that's a given. Then next it's about as you say making sure not only do I maintain the current business, but actually give it enough to grow where it needs to grow. After that, of course, then I have the capital allocation decision of either buybacks or maintaining the balance sheet. We've just discussed the balance sheet. It's in a great position. Hence the preferential buybacks. So, ultimately, what I've got is a decision around, are we putting more towards capital investment? Are we putting more towards buyback? And that healthy tension is there across the organisation because they know there's always an alternative. But, it does mean that we are not short of capital. We're not having to constrain ourselves. That's definitely not the situation. What we see with the '20 to '22 is in effect, what have we done? We have looked at basically, if you look at the reductions, remember from '25 to '28, if you go back a few years, the money has come out of inorganic in Downstream and Renewables. That's where the money has come out. And why are we comfortable with that? Well, number one, it's about we've spent a lot there and we now need to get the value out of those businesses. And we're very much focused on that. And you'll see it as we discuss there were actually improvements, et cetera, on that. Secondly, it's about the fact that we've got higher returning businesses elsewhere for now, and it's about therefore making sure that we protect and actually sustain and grow our Upstream and Integrated Gas businesses. So, when you look at the 12 to 14 billion of CapEx that we're putting in there, and that I'm really comfortable that we have enough to not only sustain but actually to allow for growth. And actually, in all of our numbers, we've got about 1 to 2 billion of inorganic coming through. And you actually see that we've just done Ursa, of course, a deal on Ursa, where we increased our percentages and there's a number of others, [INDISCERNIBLE] and stuff as well. So, from back to where Wael put our strategy, he talked about us sustaining material liquids. We've got the capital to do that. We talked about maintaining our position and growing our position in LNG. We've got the room to do that, and we've got a backstop of projects that lets us get there, which we'll discuss shortly. And then, back to that core business in Downstream and Renewables. Marketing has invested heavily. It's got enough now to do the runway and actually improve the returns on that. We've got our Chemicals business, which Machteld is thinking through just how to position that, really doing self-help, et cetera. But, less about growth is a small element in there. And then, of course, Power is about reallocation of capital. And that's the focus here. This is about reallocation of capital across Shell not reducing it fundamentally.
[Video Footage]
The shot changes to show a full screen slide containing the cautionary note.
[Text Displays]
Capital Markets Day 2025
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#CapitalMarketsDay
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Title: Shell Capital Markets Day 2025
Duration: 01:44:54
Description: Video footage of the presentation of the result of the Q4 2024
[Background music begins]
[Text Displays] Shell Capital Markets Day 2025
[Video Footage] The outline of the Shell logo ripples outwards and inwards, on a white and grey background.
[Text Displays] Shell plc 25th March 2025
[Video Footage] Medium close shot of Wael Sawan on the stage podium as he continues to speak.
Wael Sawan
Welcome back, everyone.
[Video Footage] A white label with Wael’s name and job description appears for a few seconds at the bottom of the screen.
[Text Displays] Wael Sawan - Shell CEO
Wael Sawan
During this session, we will take a deeper look into our businesses, starting now with IG and Upstream, followed later by Downstream, Renewables, and Energy Solutions.
[Video Footage] The shot changes to a split screen with Wael on the left and a slide on the right. The slide is about improving the potential of the portfolio.
[Text Displays] Shell – Enhancing performance and unlocking potential across the portfolio.
[Video Footage] Below the first title, two additional heading, from which two arrows point downward to two large boxes.
[Text Displays] Performance, Discipline & Simplification – Strongly positioned through our advantaged portfolio
[Video Footage] The boxes show the two main segments of the portfolio. The one on the left is about driving long time performances.
[Text Displays] Growth, Longevity, Resilience – High return business drive freed cash flow longevity across portfolio.
[Video Footage] Below the box headings, two lists of terms underlined in yellow, one next to the other. Only the first terms in each list is in black, the other terms are greyed out.
[Text Displays] Integrated Gas – Upstream
[Video Footage] To the side of the left box is a pair of smaller boxes approximate breakdowns.
[Text Displays] ⁓$130 billion. Capital employed ⁓60%. ⁓15% ROACE.
[Video Footage] A text box underlines the boxes.
[Text Displays] Unparalleled Trading & Supply Capabilities
Wael Sawan
Now, earlier, we discussed our beliefs around the critical role of LNG in the energy transition, as well as the continued need for investment in oil and gas production to provide secure energy. We believe that our portfolio in both IG and Upstream is highly advantaged, positioning us for sustained value creation and for cash flow longevity. IG and Upstream together generated roughly 70 percent of our organic free cash flow last year, and we expect that they will continue to generate competitive cash flows for our shareholders. Our LNG portfolio is the largest amongst our IOC peers, where we benefit from significant cash flows that we can sustain well into the next decade and beyond as we pursue a focused growth strategy, leveraging our portfolio scale and its breadth. In addition to the strong growth that we expect in IG, we will continue to invest in our Upstream business both organically and where the right opportunities arise, inorganically, ensuring that it remains stable and resilient for years to come. Together, these businesses will provide a strong foundation for value creation. With that, let me start by giving some more detail on that portfolio strength.
[Video Footage] A new slide appears on the split screen with Wael on the left. The slide is about IG and Upstream in detail.
[Text Displays] Integrated Gas and Upstream. We are building on our strengths.
[Video Footage] Under the main title, three large boxes contain three different graphs, showing past progress and future projections in IG and Upstream. The first box on the left focuses on the gas value chain.
[Text Displays] Growing production with focus on the gas value chain. Integrated Gas & Upstream production.
[Video Footage] Below the headers, a bar chart with numbers growing from 0 to 3 on the y axis. Above the y axis a text box specifies what it represents.
[Text Displays] 0, 1, 2, 3 - mboe/d.
[Video Footage] On the x axis, the years that the bars represent.
[Text Displays] 2024, 2028, 2030.
[Video Footage] Above the bars, an arrow pointing upward and to the right, with a text box on top.
[Text Displays] 1% CAGR
[Video Footage] In the bar chart, the three bars corresponding to the three years on the x axis are almost as high as the number 3 on the y axis. The bars are red on the bottom half and yellow on the top half. Just below the middle line of the three bars a label.
[Text Displays] 1.4 mb/d Liquids.
[Video Footage] Below the x axis, a legend with two small squares, red on the left and yellow on the right, explaining what the colours represent.
[Text Displays] Liquids. Gas.
[Video Footage] The box in the middle focuses on reducing CO2 emissions and creating value.
[Text Displays] Generating more value with less emissions. Integrated Gas & Upstream CFFO excl. WC per boe.
[Video Footage] Below the headers, a line chart. On the right side of x axis numbers ranging from 0 to 60 in intervals of 20 and on the right side, numbers ranging from 0 to 25 in intervals of 5. Above the y axis the specification of what they represent.
[Text Displays] 0, 20, 40, 60 - $/boe. 0, 5, 10, 15, 20, 25 - kgCO2e/boe.
[Video Footage] On the x axis years ranging from 2016 to 2024 in intervals of 2.
[Text Displays] 2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024.
[Video Footage] In the line chart, three different lines, one grey, one red and one dotted grey, fluctuate up and down to show changes in the number value. Below the x axis, a legend with one small grey square, a red line and a dotted grey line, explaining what the lines in the chart represent.
[Text Displays] Peer range. Shell IG&UP. GHG Intensity.
[Video Footage] GHG Intensity has a footnote.
[Text Displays] Oil and gas production related.
[Video Footage] The box on the right focuses on returns and cash flow.
[Text Displays] Portfolio focus delivering attractive returns and free cash flow. Integrated Gas & Upstream.
[Video Footage] Below the headers, a bar chart with a fluctuating line on top. On the right side of y axis numbers ranging from -10 to 50 in intervals of 10 and on the right-side percentages ranging from 0 to 30 in intervals of 10. Above the y axis the specification of what they represent.
[Text Displays] -10, 0, 10, 20, 30, 40, 50 - $/boe. 0%, 10%, 20%, 30% - ROACE (%)
[Video Footage] On the x axis years ranging from 2016 to 2024 in intervals of 2.
[Text Displays] 2016, 2018, 2020, 2022, 2024.
[Video Footage] In the bar chart, thin yellow bars and a grey line, fluctuate up and down to show changes in the number value. Below the x axis, a legend with one small yellow square and a grey line, explaining what they represent.
[Text Displays] Organic FCF per boe. ROACE.
Wael Sawan
You've heard us talk about value over volume for many, many years, and this principle will remain at the heart of our strategy.
[Video Footage] The shot changes to show only the slide on the screen.
Wael Sawan
We continue to have the highest CFFO excluding working capital per barrel of oil equivalent amongst our peers.
[Video Footage] The shot changes to the split screen with Wael on the left and the slide on the right.
Wael Sawan
Consistently generating more value per barrel than any other integrated oil and gas company, together with very attractive returns on capital. We're well-positioned to sustain this cash flow delivery with clear line of sight through the 2030s. This is underpinned by our resilience to a wide range of market conditions and our drive towards competitive best in basin performance across our portfolio. And we're also driving lower emissions. Our portfolio has become more carbon competitive, demonstrated by the fact that we have reduced our carbon intensity by more than 30 percent since 2016. Onto volumes now. We'll continue to grow our gas business where LNG, in particular, plays a key role in the energy transition. Producing fewer greenhouse gas emissions than coal when used to generate electricity and fewer emissions than petrol or diesel when used for transport fuel. We expect to maintain or grow our oil and natural gas liquids production, aiming to sustain material liquids production of 1.4 million barrels of oil equivalent per day to 2030, supporting the demand for secure energy. Across IG and Upstream combined, we expect a total production growth rate of 1 percent per year through the decade, which is achievable at our targeted cash CapEx of 12 to 14 billion dollars a year. In summary, our focus on value over volume and strong operational performance is delivering attractive returns. And we expect our leading IG and high margin Upstream businesses to continue to do so for the foreseeable future. To show you how we aim to sustain this, let's dive just a bit deeper into our resource base.
[Video Footage] A new slide appears on the split screen with Wael on the left. The slide is about volumes.
[Text Displays] Integrated Gas and Upstream. Advantaged resources sustain volumes.
[Video Footage] Under the main title, three large boxes contain three different graphs, showing past progress and future projections. The first box on the left focuses on LNG and Deepwater.
[Text Displays] Strong resource base weighted towards high-margin LNG and Deepwater. Commercial resources (2P+2C) in billion boe.
[Video Footage] boe has a footnote.
[Text Display] Peer source: Wood Mackenzie. Shell based on internal analysis using Wood Mackenzie segmentation. Shell excludes SPDC and AOSP.
[Video Footage] Below the headers, a bar chart with numbers ranging from 0 to 50 in increments on 10 on the y axis.
[Video Footage] On the x axis, four peers to the left and right of Shell in the middle.
[Text Displays] Peer 1, Peer 2, Shell, Peer 3, Peer 4.
[Video Footage] In the bar chart, the five bars corresponding to the five entities on the x axis are at different heights and segmented inside. The bars representing the 4 peers are in shades of grey and the bar representing Shell is in shades of red.
[Video Footage] Below the x axis, a legend with four small squares divided diagonally, with two different colours in the two halves, explaining what the shades of colours represent.
[Text Displays] ING + GTL. Conventional. Deepwater. Shales.
[Video Footage] The box in the middle focuses on new projects in the next five years.
[Text Displays] New projects to deliver >1 million boe/d between 2025-2030. Peak production from new projects.
[Video Footage] Below the headers, a horizontal bar chart with the names of the projects on the left, showing projections with incomplete bars in different colours and with complete bars, split in two colours.
[Text Displays] Liquids vs. Gas. Total. Other. Jackdaw. Sparta. Borga North. North Field South. Gato do Mato. Crux. North Field East. Marjoram / Rosmari. Manatee. Mero-4 Penguins. Whale.
[Video Footage] Below the chart, a legend with four small squares, a dark blue and a light blue, and a dark grey and a light grey, explaining what the colours of the bars in the chart represent.
[Text Displays] Integrated gas. Upstream. Liquids. Gas.
[Video Footage] On the right side of the chart, a specification of price per barrel projection.
[Text Displays] $ 35 bbl. Average breakeven.
[Video Footage] Average breakeven has a footnote.
[Text Displays] Breakeven price is [ILLEGIBLE] equivalent.
[Video Footage] The box on the right focuses on future production.
[Text Displays] Sustaining production into the 2030s.
[Video Footage] Below the headers, a line area chart with fluctuating lines in different colours over a large grey area. On the y axis numbers ranging from 0 to 3. Above the y axis the specification of what they represent.
[Text Displays] 0, 1, 2, 3 – mboe/d
[Video Footage] On the x axis years ranging from 2025 to 2035 in intervals of 5.
[Text Displays] 2025, 2030, 2035.
[Video Footage] In the line area chart, a large grey area is topped by 3 coloured areas, one light green, one yellow and one dark green, that cover smaller areas to show changes in the number value over time. Below the x axis, a legend with four small squares in dark green, yellow, light green and grey, explaining what they represent.
[Text Displays] Growth. New fields pre-FID. New fields under construction. Base.
[Video Footage] Base has a footnote.
[Text Displays] Includes [ILLEGIBLE].
Wael Sawan
Our advantaged portfolio is weighed towards leadership positions in IG and prolific Deepwater basins, which work alongside our resilient conventional oil and gas business to form an overall advantaged Upstream position. We believe we have the right portfolio consistent with our beliefs on LNG and continued liquids demand. But, what really differentiates Shell is the significant proportion of high margin commercial resources. The largest resources in LNG and Deepwater compared with our peers, both areas in which we excel and in where we can drive disproportionate value. And we continue to deliver on our commitments. We're on track to deliver our CMD23 commitment to bring online projects, with a total peak production of more than a half a million barrels of oil equivalent per day by the end of this year, given over 80 percent was already delivered in the first two years. This includes two new platforms in the Gulf of America, two new floating production storage and offloading vessels in Brazil, as well as gas platforms in the UK and Malaysia. Importantly, these improvements have come alongside structural cost reductions of 1.4 billion dollars. We've also simplified our structure and operating models, ensuring a more efficient organisation, and challenged existing business models with the creation of our announced new integrated joint venture with Equinor for the UK North Sea. So, we start from a position of strength. And today, we are showcasing projects that will add over a million barrels of oil equivalent per day of peak production, underpinning our growth and longevity ambitions and providing resilience with an estimated breakeven price of 35 dollars per barrel. This growth will be driven by new gas supplies to existing LNG facilities and by maximising output from our Deepwater fields. We will bring on Sparta in the Gulf of America and expand operations in Brazil with an additional Mero FPSO, Atapu-2, and the recently announced Gato do Mato FPSO. Looking beyond this decade, we're confident that we can sustain these levels of production to 2035 within the 12 to 14 billion dollars of capital allocated to Integrated Gas and Upstream. Our organic investment hurdle of 11 to 15 percent IRR across Integrated Gas and Upstream will enable us to continue to prioritise value over volume, and any potential inorganic activity will continue to be examined through the same lens.
[Video Footage] A new slide appears on the split screen with Wael on the left. The slide is about IG in the long term.
[Text Displays] Integrated Gas and Upstream. Integrated Gas - Growth and scale sustained cash flows over the long term.
[Video Footage] Under the main title, three large boxes contain three different graphs, showing past progress and future projections in IG. The first box on the left focuses on sales.
[Text Displays] Growing sales into the next decade. ING sales (liquefaction + purchased volumes) (mtpa).
[Video Footage] The text in the brackets has a footnote
[Video Displays] Excludes spot purchases. Purchased volumes outlook includes 3rd party purchases and purchases from [ILLEGIBLE] in excess of equity liquefaction volumes, [ILLEGIBLE] volumes and volumes subject to project FID.
[Video Footage] Below the headers, a bar chart with numbers growing from 0 to 80 in increments of 20 on the y axis.
[Text Displays] 0, 20, 04, 60, 80.
[Video Footage] On the x axis, the years that the bars represent.
[Text Displays] 2024, 2028, 2030.
[Video Footage] Above the bars, an arrow pointing upward and to the right, with a text box on top.
[Text Displays] 4-5% CAGR
[Video Footage] In the bar chart, the three bars corresponding to the three years on the x axis are increasingly higher, from just below 60 to just below 80. The bars are red on the bottom half and yellow on the top half.
[Video Footage] Below the x axis, a legend with two small squares, red on the left and yellow on the right, explaining what the colours represent.
[Text Displays] Liquefaction volumes. Purchased volumes.
[Video Footage] The box in the middle focuses on investment on LNG.
[Text Displays] Investing further to sustain leading LNG position.
[Video Footage] Below the header, a table with five columns and seven rows. In the columns investment categories are specified.
[Text Displays] Project. Country. Project status. Shell share. Capacity 100% mtpa.
[Video Footage] In the rows, each investment is specified.
[Text Display]
LNG Canada phase 1. Canada. Construction. 40. 14
NLNG Train 7. Nigeria. Construction. 26. 7.6
North Field East. Qatar. Construction. 25. 8
North Field South. Qatar. Construction. 25. 6
Ruwais LNG. Abu Dhabi. Construction. 10. 9.6
ING Canada phase 2. Canada. Pre-FID option. 40. 14
Oman Trains 4. Oman. Pre-FID option. 30. 3.3
[Video Footage] Ruwais LNG has a foot note.
[Text Display] Subject to completion.
[Video Footage] Below the table additional information.
[Text Displays] Other options include Tanzania and Argentina LNG.
[Video Footage] The box on the right focuses on cash flow.
[Text Displays] Supporting significant free cash flow into the 2030s.
[Video Footage] Below the header, four couples of a higher yellow bar and a lower red bar next to each other, repeat at different heights to show projected earnings over time. On the y axis numbers ranging from 0 to 20 in increments of 4. Above the y axis the specification of what they represent.
[Text Displays] 0, 4, 8, 12, 16, 20 - $ billion
[Video Footage] On the x axis four-year periods from 2016-2019 to 2031-2035.
[Text Displays] 2016-2019, 2020-2024, 2025-2030, 2031-2035.
[Video Footage] Inside the chart, a text box over the highest yellow bar in the 2nd couple of bars representing year period 202-2024.
[Text Displays] Heightened geopolitical tensions
[Video Footage] Below the x axis, a legend with two small squares in yellow and red, explaining what the bars represent.
[Text Displays] CFFO excl. WC. Cash capex
Wael Sawan
Let's focus now on our leading IG business. At CMD23, we outlined a path to grow our LNG business and that's exactly what we are doing. We have a large portfolio of projects under construction, and our acquisition of Pavilion Energy's LNG business last year helped boost our LNG trading capabilities and is expected to close soon. In addition to this, our investment in ADNOC, Ruwais LNG project in Abu Dhabi will be another major step to grow sales into the next decade. And we've also made good progress in areas such as availability, which we highlighted at CMD23. Year over year, LNG availability has steadily improved. For example, in prelude, we've improved asset availability by more than 25 percent over the past couple of years. And QGC in Australia delivered its best availability performance last year. These achievements reflect our evolving performance culture with teams focused on where the value sits. So, we've delivered a step change in performance, but we are also excited by the prospects that lie ahead of us. Our ongoing investment in equity liquefaction capacity will support further cash flow growth well into the future. First to come is LNG Canada. And we're on track for first cargoes to be shipped around middle of this year. All LNG produced at the facility from day one will be provided to Shell and the other joint venture participants. LNG Canada was designed with resiliency in mind, with energy-efficient natural gas turbines, and renewable electricity from the British Columbia hydro grid lower CO2 composition natural feedstock from the Montagnais basin. Additional projects in Nigeria and Qatar are also set to come online in the next three years. Including our investment in Ruwais, these projects add 12 million tonnes per year Shell share capacity to the portfolio…
[Video Footage] Shot change to a view of the whole stage. Wael at the podium and Sinead sitting at the table to the right of it. At the back of the stage, three arches in the structure of the wall. Inside each arch is a monitor the size and shape of the arch. On the screen in the centre is the Shell logo and on the two side screens the PowerPoint slide on a white background.
Wael Sawan
…increasing our equity volumes by almost a third from today's levels.
[Video Footage] Shot change back to the split screen with Wael on the left and the slide on the right.
Wael Sawan
And all of these investments are top quartile when measured on a well to loading arm basis, i.e. across production, pipeline, and liquefaction, such that collectively, they will reduce the average GHG intensity of LNG that Shell sells to our customers. As we get into the latter part of the decade and beyond, our healthy funnel of options, including projects such as Oman Train 4 and a Phase 2 expansion at LNG Canada, as well as backfill opportunities, all of that will extract further value from existing LNG trains and sustain the cash flow longevity of the IG portfolio. There's no doubt the macro environment has been remarkable in recent years, but we believe our operational performance, ongoing investments, and attractive options for the future show a clear path to continued healthy returns and sustained cash flow well into the next decade, further solidifying our position as the leader in LNG. All of this gives us the confidence to reconfirm today that our LNG term sales trajectory will grow 4 to 5 percent at a compound annual growth rate across liquefaction volumes and third-party purchases until the end of the decade, with additional optionality to grow liquefaction capacity even further after 2030.
[Video Footage] A new slide appears on the split screen with Wael on the left. The slide is about IG resilience.
[Text Displays] Integrated Gas and Upstream. Integrated Gas – Resilience through the cycle from cost and exposure advantages.
[Video Footage] Under the main title, three large boxes contain four different graphs, showing past progress and future projections. The first box on the left focuses on LNG fundamentals.
[Text Displays] Positive long-term LNG fundamentals despite increased medium-term supply.
[Video Footage] Supply has a footnote.
[Text Display] Source: 2025 Shell LNG Outlook.
[Video Footage] Below the header, a line area chart with a large yellow area at the bottom and two smaller areas, one red and one blue on top. A small white area creates a gap between these two areas on the right side of the chart. To the right of the white area, an arrow pointing both upwards and downwards and a text box explaining the gap.
[Text Display] Supply gap.
[Video Footage] On the y axis numbers ranging from 0 to 800 in increments on 200.
[Text Displays] 0, 200, 400, 600, 800.
[Video Footage] On top of it a text box explains what the y axis represents.
[Text Display] mtpa
[Text Display] On the x axis, years ranging from 2024 to 2040 in increments of 4.
[Text Displays] 2024, 2028, 2032, 2036, 2040.
[Video Footage] Below the x axis three small squares, one yellow, one red and one blue, explain what the areas in the chart represent.
[Text Display] Supply in operations. Supply in constructions. Demand range.
[Video Footage] The box in the centre focuses on supply additions.
[Text Display] Strengthening portfolio with cost competitive supply additions.
[Video Footage] Additions has a footnote.
[Text Display] Source: Non-Shell projects [liquefaction projects only] – Wood Mackenzie. Shell projects: Shell internal data [includes backfills and liquefaction], shareholder view.
[Video Footage] In the bar chart, yellow and grey bars alternate and are increasingly higher. On the y axis numbers ranging from 0 to 10 in increments of 2, with a text box on top, explaining what they represent.
[Text Display] 0, 2, 4, 6, 8, 10 - LNG Delivered Costs Tokyo Bay ($/mmBtu).
[Video Footage] Just between the numbers 8 and 10 a dotted line cuts through the chart. A text box explains what it represents.
[Text Displays] Average delivered cost (US Gulf Coast exports)
[Video Footage] Below the bars, a legend with two small squares, one yellow and one grey, explaining what they represent.
[Text Displays] Shell. Non-Shell.
[Video Footage] The box on the right focuses on the advantage of oil price exposure.
[Text Displays] Resilient to gas prices cycle due to oil price exposure.
[Video Footage] Exposure has a footnote.
[Text Displays] Shell LNG Trading Volumes average 2026-2029.
[Video Footage] Below the header, two bar charts, one on top of the other. In the chart at the top, on the y axis numbers ranging from 0 to 60 in increments of 20, with a text box explaining what it represents.
[Text Displays] 0, 20, 40, 60 – Supply and Sales volumes (mtpa)
[Video Footage] (mtpa) has a footnote.
[Text Displays] Shell LNG Trading Volumes average 2026-2029.
[Video Footage] On the x axis, two text boxes explaining what the bars represent.
[Text Displays] Supply. Sales.
[Video Footage] the bars are segmented in colours, yellow, blue and red. Each colour has an acronym written inside.
[Text Displays] [ILLEGIBLE]. JKM/TTF. Brent/JCC.
[Video Footage] In the chart at the bottom, on the y axis numbers ranging from -0.5 to 1.5 in increments of 0.5, with a text box explaining what it represents.
[Text Displays] -0.5, 0.0, 0.5, 1.0, 1.5 – IG portfolio CFFO sensitivity ($ billions).
[Video Footage] ($ billions) has a footnote.
[Text Displays] Average annual CFFO sensitivity 2026-2029 [ILLEVIBLE] includes change in the price market. The sensitivities are additive and not mutually exclusive. Includes [ILLEGIBLE] GTL and Pre-FDI [ILLEGIBLE]. Sensitivity to the Henry Hub includes AFCO.
[Video Footage] The three bars in the chart have different colours, yellow, blue and red and different heights. The first bar is yellow and covers the area between 0.0 and 1.5 on the y axis. On the x axis a text box explaining what it represents.
[Text Displays] +1’/bbl change in Brent/JCC.
[Video Footage] The second bar is blue and covers the area between 0.0 and 0.5 on the y axis. On the x axis a text box explaining what it represents.
[Text Displays] +1$/mmBtu change in JKM/TTF
[Video Footage] The third bar is red and covers the area between -0.5 and 0.0 on the y axis. On the x axis a text box explaining what it represents.
[Text Displays] +1$/mmBtu change in Henry Hub
Wael Sawan
As many of you will have seen in our most recent LNG outlook, when we look at global LNG supply and demand, we see demand for LNG increasing by roughly 60 percent by 2040. This is mainly driven by economic growth in Asia, electricity demand from artificial intelligence, and emissions reduction plans…
[Video Footage] The shot changes to show only the slide on the screen.
Wael Sawan
… driving gas demand within heavy industry and transport.
[Video Footage] The shot changes to the split screen with Wael on the left and the slide on the right.
Wael Sawan
The long-term fundamentals of LNG therefore remain extremely attractive, and we are very well-positioned to benefit from these fundamentals. We've built the portfolio to be able to capture this upside, whilst also retaining optionality, so that we can be dynamic in response to demand signals. New supply coming online in the coming years could lead to increased volatility. However, we see latent demand picking up at the 9 to 10 dollars per million BTU level, with price-sensitive buyers switching to LNG in a number of markets like India and China. Together, our portfolio depth, trading capabilities, low cost of supply…
[Video Footage] Shot change to a view of the whole stage. Wael at the podium and Sinead sitting at the table to the right of it. At the back of the stage, three arches in the structure of the wall. Inside each arch is a monitor the size and shape of the arch. On the screen in the centre is the Shell logo and on the two side screens the PowerPoint slide on a white background.
Wael Sawan
…along with high conversion to term Brent-linked sales, and limited exposure to JKM prices…
[Video Footage] Shot change back to the split screen with Wael on the left and the slide on the right.
Wael Sawan
bolster our resilience to global supply increases towards the end of this decade. As you can see, we have architected a leading portfolio in a growing and attractive market, which is also resilient through the cycle and supported by our unparalleled trading and optimisation capabilities. And, with that, let me describe those capabilities in a bit more depth than we have in the past.
[Video Footage] A new slide appears showing value capture from global trading & optimization benefitting from scale, footprint and optionality, with a graphic of the world map which has colour coded symbols to show the status of each category in those specific regions. Numerous locations on the map are marked and many are connected by arrows.
[Text Displays]
Integrated Gas and Upstream.
LNG – Global trading & optimization enables unrivalled value capture
Advantaged portfolio benefitting from scale, footprint and optionality
[Video Footage] Additional text in the footnote of the slide.
[Text Displays] Includes Pavilion Energy and Ruwais LNG. Transactions are subject to completion. LNG flows are indicative and do not represent all actual [ILLEGIBLE] flows in Shell’s LNG portfolio.
[Video Footage] To the bottom right of the world map, a legend explains what the colour-coded symbols represent. The first symbol is a full red dot.
[Text Displays] Liquification plants
[Video Footage] The second symbol is a fading red dot.
[Text Displays] Liquification plants under constructions.
[Video Footage] The third symbol is an empty red dot.
[Text Displays] Liquification plants options.
[Video Footage] The fourth symbol is a full red square.
[Text Displays] Term purchases.
[Video Footage] The fifth symbol is a full blue dot.
[Text Displays] Regasification plants (equity).
[Video Footage] The sixth symbol is a full blue square.
[Text Displays] Regasification access.
[Video Footage] The seventh symbol is a full yellow square.
[Text Displays] Countries with [ILLEGIBLE] LNG term sales
[Video Footage] The eighth symbol is a black arrow.
[Text Displays] Indicative LNG flows
[Video Footage] To the right of the world map, a bar chart with a text box on top explaining what it represents.
[Text Displays] Sales volumes (mtpa)
[Video Footage] (mtpa) has a footnote
[Text Displays] 2024 reported data for publicly [ILLEGIBLE] global LNG suppliers. Peers are [ILLEGIBLE], [ILLEGIBLE], BP, ExxonMobil, Woodside, ENI & [ILLEGIBLE].
[Video Footage] On the top horizontal axis numbers ranging from 0 to 60 in increments of 30.
[Text Displays] 0, 30, 60.
[Video Footage] On the right vertical axis text boxes explaining what each bar represent.
[Text Displays]
Shell
Peer 1
Peer 2
Peer 3
Peer 4
Peer 5
Peer 6
Wael Sawan
Our trading and optimisation capabilities offer an unrivalled advantage across our LNG portfolio given our scale, our footprint, and the optionality which comes with that. We're the largest publicly listed LNG market participant. And, quite frankly, we believe we have developed the strongest LNG business model in the industry…
[Video Footage] The shot changes to show only the slide on the screen.
Wael Sawan
…with an unmatched capability to deliver gas to our diverse customer base, where and when they need it.
[Video Footage] The shot changes to the split screen with Wael on the left and the slide on the right.
Wael Sawan
With supply coming from all the major gas basins and long-term sales focused on Asian growth markets, our portfolio is fully integrated with our trading capabilities, providing flexibility and optionality to match supply with demand. The strength of our LNG trading business was on display in 2022 and 2023, when we redirected almost 200 cargoes into Europe at short notice, whilst maintaining secure supplies to our term customers. With multiple supply sources and demand destinations, we can also manage exposure to shipping route constraints profitably and at short notice. And, with LNG Canada, we have an asset that, when operational, will add advantaged supply connecting a very cost-competitive North American Upstream gas basin to growing Asian demands. Our global trading capability across basins diversifies our exposure to pricing, regulation, and even geopolitical events, ultimately improving reliability for our customers and adding value for our shareholders. And we're also seeing new areas of demand growth…
[Video Footage] Shot change to a view of the whole stage. Wael at the podium and Sinead sitting at the table to the right of it. At the back of the stage, three arches in the structure of the wall. Inside each arch is a monitor the size and shape of the arch. On the screen in the centre is the Shell logo and on the two side screens the PowerPoint slide on a white background.
Wael Sawan
which could scale into the future. For example, our world-leading position in LNG bunkering…
[Video Footage] Shot change back to the split screen with Wael on the left and the slide on the right.
Wael Sawan
is enabling the development of the marine LNG market, which is set for significant growth in the coming years and provides a further opportunity to diversify the portfolio. In summary, our size, our diversification, our balance, and trading capabilities all provide an enviable platform from which to create value now and well into the future. Let me now hand over to Sinead to talk a bit about Upstream.
[Video Footage] Shot change to a view of the whole stage. Wael leaves the podium to go sit at the table to the right side of the podium and Sinead stands up and walks to the podium.
Sinead Gorman
Thank you, Wael. So, switching to our Upstream portfolio, which is focused around…
[Video Footage] A close up shot of Sinead at the podium, as she continues to talk.
Sinead Gorman
…Deepwater and Conventional Oil and Gas or COG businesses.
[Video Footage] A white label with Sinead’s name and job description appears for a few seconds at the bottom of the screen.
[Text Displays] Sinead Gorman – Shell CFO
Sinead Gorman
These businesses are highly complementary. Conventional Oil offers price resilience…
[Video Footage] The shot changes to a split screen with Sinead on the left and a slide on the right. The slide is about Upstream.
[Text Displays]
Integrated Gas and Upstream
Upstream – Maximizing high-margin production and longevity across core basins
[Video Footage] Under the main title, three large boxes contain three different graphs, showing past progress and future projections in Upstream. The first box on the left focuses on Deepwater oil and Gas.
[Text Displays]
Deepwater oil & Gas.
Higher-margin, lower cost-production with resource depth
[Video Footage] Below the headers, a bar chart with two yellow bars. On the y axis percentages grow from 0 to 15 in increments of 5. Above the y axis a text box specifies what it represents.
[Text Displays] 0%, 5%, 10%, 15% - ROACE (%)
[Video Footage] ROACE has 2 footnotes.
[Text Displays] 1 Deepwater ROACE calculation includes goodwill [ILLEGIBLE] with the [ILLEGIBLE] organization 2 2030 for price exemptions [ILLEGIBLE] Appendix.
[Video Footage] On the x axis, the year periods that the bars represent.
[Text Displays] 2023-2024, 2030.
[Video Footage] In the bar chart, the bar on the left expands between 0% and just below 10% and has a percentage written inside.
[Text Displays] 9%.
[Video Footage] In the bar chart, the bar on the right expands between 0% and just below 15% with the top fading. It has a percentage written inside.
[Text Displays] ~12%.
[Video Footage] Below the x axis, a text box, explaining what the chart represents.
[Text Displays] Pre-leading Deepwater position
[Video Footage] The box in the middle focuses on Conventional oil and gas.
[Text Displays]
Conventional Oil & Gas.
Stable, cost-competitive with double digit return and longevity
[Video Footage] Below the headers, a bar chart with two yellow bars. On the y axis percentages grow from 0 to 25 in increments of 5. Above the y axis a text box specifies what it represents.
[Text Displays] 0%, 5%, 10%, 15%, 20%, 25% - ROACE (%)
[Video Footage] ROACE has 1 footnote.
[Text Displays] 2030 for price exemptions [ILLEGIBLE] Appendix.
[Video Footage] On the x axis, the year periods that the bars represent.
[Text Displays] 2023-2024, 2030.
[Video Footage] In the bar chart, the bar on the left expands between 0% and just below 20% and has a percentage written inside.
[Text Displays] 21%.
[Video Footage] In the bar chart, the bar on the right expands between 0% and just above 15% with the top fading. It has a percentage written inside.
[Text Displays] ~18%.
[Video Footage] Below the x axis, a text box, explaining what the chart represents.
[Text Displays] Providing financial resilience
[Video Footage] The box on the right focuses on Upstream margins.
[Text Displays]
High-grade Upstream margins
Higher unit CFFO excl. WC despite lower volumes and prices
[Video Footage] Below the headers, a line area chart with a yellow line cutting across it. The line fluctuates up and down to show changes in the number value. The filled grey section has a fluctuating top edge. On the left side of the y axis numbers ranging from 0 to 40 in increments of 10. Above them a text box specifies what they represent.
[Text Displays] 0, 10, 20, 30, 40 - $/bbl
[Video Footage] On the right side of the y axis numbers ranging from 0 to 3 in increments of 1. Above them a text box specifies what they represent.
[Text Displays] 0, 1, 2, 3 – Production (mboe/d)
[Video Footage] On the x axis, the two years at the far left and far right of the chart.
[Text Displays] 2014. 2024
[Video Footage] Under the yellow line a text box specifies additional details.
[Text Displays]
> 50%
Margin improvement since 2014
[Video Footage] Below the x axis, a text box, explaining what the chart represents.
[Text Displays] Price upside exposure
Sinead Gorman
…whilst Deepwater provides price upside with its high-margin barrels. To differentiate ourselves, we focus on basin mastery, understanding the subsurface and geology in key regions like the Gulf of America, Brazil, Oman, and Malaysia. Our long legacy in these positions provides the ability to produce, at lower costs and higher efficiency to ensure we remain competitive through the cycle. Additionally, we are committed to reducing the carbon footprint of our production, aiming for lower carbon intensity over time by optimizing power use, for example, at our Timi asset in Malaysia and Sparta in the Gulf of America. Compared with our IOC peers, Shell's Deepwater business stands out for its scale, efficiency, and infrastructure advantage. We are the only ones with a leading portfolio or position in both the Gulf of America and Brazil, two of the highest margin and lower carbon basins in the world. This is balanced by our high-graded COG portfolio, which provides stable and consistent returns from cost-competitive and long-life assets. Over the years, we have focused and rationalized the Upstream portfolio. Today, we are generating 50 percent higher CFFO excluding working capital per barrel compared with ten years ago, despite nearly 20 percent lower Brent prices. We intend to continue maximizing the value from our existing portfolio whilst also positioning ourselves for continued strategic growth.
[Video Footage] A new slide appears on the split screen with Sinead on the left. The slide is about US Deepwater.
[Text Displays]
Integrated Gas and Upstream
US Deepwater – Scale, margin, and expertise underpin leading position
[Video Footage] Under the main title, three large boxes contain three different graphs, showing past progress and future projections in Upstream. The first box on the left focuses on high-margin basins.
[Text Displays]
Largest position in high-margin basin
Innovative designs across our deepwater platform deliver higher-margin and lower-carbon barrels.
[Video Footage] Below the headers, a bar chart with two yellow bars. On the y axis numbers ranging from 0 to 50 in increments of 10. Above the y axis a text box specifies what it represents.
[Text Displays] 0, 10, 20, 30, 40, 50 – CFFO excl. WC boe ($)
[Video Footage] CFFO has 1 footnote.
[Text Displays] 2018 and the average 2025-2030 Brent price scenario are similar.
[Video Footage] On the x axis, the year periods that the bars represent.
[Text Displays] 2018, 2025-2030.
[Video Footage] In the bar chart, the bar on the left expands between 0 and just below 40 and has a number written inside.
[Text Displays] 39.
[Video Footage] In the bar chart, the bar on the right expands between 0% and just above 40, with the top fading. It has a number written inside.
[Text Displays] ~42.
[Video Footage] Below the x axis, a text box, explaining what the chart represents.
[Text Displays] ~ $4 billion in nFCF in 2024
[Video Footage] The box in the middle focuses on volumes.
[Text Displays]
Exceeding expectations on volumes
>25% incremental volumes via tiebacks and near field exploration over last 30 years
[Video Footage] years has a footnote.
[Text Displays] Incremental volumes relative to volumes [ILLEGIBLE] of Final Decision of [ILLEGIBLE]
[Video Footage] Below the headers, a line area chart with two filled areas. The bottom one is grey and top one is blue. They have fluctuating top edges to show the change in number value over time. On the y axis numbers ranging from 0 to 400 in increments of 200. Above the y axis a text box specifies what it represents.
[Text Displays] 0, 200, 400 - Production (kboe/d)
[Video Footage] On the x axis, three years are displayed, one at the far left, one close to the far right end and one at the far right of the chart.
[Text Displays] 1994, 2024, 2030.
[Video Footage] In the line area chart, the areas are split by a white vertical line corresponding to the year 2024. The white line is crossed horizontally by a yellow dotted line between the numbers 200 and 400 on the y axis.
[Video Footage] Below the x axis, a legend with a small grey square, a small blue square and a dotted yellow line, explaining what the chart represents.
[Text Displays] Hubs. Tiebacks. Average 2020-2030
[Video Footage] The box on the right focuses on past margin improvement.
[Text Displays]
Track record of margin improvement
Performances focus boosts margins and return on incremental capital
[Video Footage] Below the headers, three couples of yellow bars. A the top of each bar a percentage and at the bottom the year it represents. The left bar always represents 2018 and the right bar always represents 2024. In the first couple of bars, the left bar is significantly smaller than the right bar. At the top, a text box explaining what they represent.
[Text Displays]
Controllable availability %
77% 90%
2018 2024
[Video Footage] In the second couple of bars, the left bar is slightly smaller than the right bar. At the top, a text box explaining what they represent.
[Text Displays]
WRFM optimisation
8% 14%
2018 2024
[Video Footage] In the third couple of bars, the left bar is slightly bigger than the right bar. At the top, two text boxes explaining what each bar represent.
[Text Displays]
Unit operating cost $/bbl >15% reduction
2018 2024
[Video Footage] $&bbl has a footnote.
[Text Displays] Underlying open reduction for the portfolio, exclusive of growth.
[Video Footage] Below the x bars, a text box explaining what the they represent.
[Text Displays] >$1 billion improvement in 2024 CFFO compared to 2018
[Video Footage] 2018 has a footnote.
[Text Displays] Price [ILLEGIBLE], see Appendix for price [ILLEGIBLE].
Sinead Gorman
And our leading U.S. Deepwater position in the Gulf of America is a great example of that. Value maximisation and growth potential. Over more than four decades, we have built our position as the largest operated leaseholder and producer, and we continue to deliver more value from these operations by focusing on levers within our control to safely maximise production and cash from our portfolio. The barrels from Shell's U.S. Deepwater position have one of the highest CFFO excluding working capital per barrel in our portfolio, and we expect to maintain an average production around 300K BOE a day into the 2030s. We will deliver this by deepening our interest in existing assets, like our recent deal to acquire an additional working interest in Ursa and continuing to develop around the most prolific basins in the Gulf of America. Creating opportunities for tiebacks like the Silvertip tieback into the Perdido Host, and through these tiebacks, connecting new wells to existing infrastructure and strategically delivering additional infill wells.

[Video Footage] The shot changes to show only the slide on the screen.
Sinead Gorman
We've added an additional 25 percent of incremental volumes to our Gulf of America hubs.
[Video Footage] The shot changes to the split screen with Sinead on the left and the slide on the right.
Sinead Gorman
We've also seen a step change in controllable availability, increasing our facilities' uptime by 13 percent since 2018. And we're building a track record on reliability, too. We have seen 96 percent controllable reliability for the second consecutive year in a row, demonstrating sustainability of performance improvement and bottom-line impact. Our Well Reservoir and Facilities Management or WRFM, capability integrates a variety of engineering, drilling, and operations discipline to manage everything from data gathering and interpretation through to modelling and drilling. Not only are we top quartile according to industry benchmarks, but we continue to improve, which enables us to protect and grow our existing production, delivering some of the lowest cost barrels available. By flattening our organisation and increasing operational performance, we've reduced unit operating costs by some 15 percent since 2018. Our focus on performance improvement over the past six years has resulted in a significant 1 billion dollars uplift. Meanwhile, we keep learning. Our new projects are also more efficient, replicating and optimising our designs to reduce costs, cycle times, and emissions. For example, our Whale platform in the Gulf of America replicated 80 percent of the top [sales] from the prior Vito platform, whilst also operating with 30 percent lower greenhouse gas intensity. Next in line is Sparta, which will replicate by 85 percent of Whale's topsides, with additional design improvements to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and intensity even further.
[Video Footage] A new slide appears on the split screen with Sinead on the left. The slide is about Brazil Deepwater.
[Text Displays]
Integrated Gas and Upstream
Brazil Deepwater – Unlocking value from expertise, technology and partnerships
[Video Footage] Under the main title, three large boxes contain three different graphs, showing past progress and future projections in Upstream. The first box on the left focuses on Top foreign producer in Brazil.
[Text Displays]
Top foreign producer in Brazil
Resilient unit margins in a top-quartile basin
[Video Footage] Below the headers, a bar chart with two yellow bars. On the y axis numbers ranging from 0 to 40 in increments of 10. Above the y axis a text box specifies what it represents.
[Text Displays] 0, 10, 20, 30, 40, 50 – CFFO excl. WC boe ($)
[Video Footage] CFFO has 1 footnote.
[Text Displays] 2018 and the average 2025-2030 Brent price scenario are similar.
[Video Footage] On the x axis, the year periods that the bars represent.
[Text Displays] 2018, 2025-2030.
[Video Footage] In the bar chart, the bar on the left expands between 0 and just 30 and has a number written inside.
[Text Displays] ~31.
[Video Footage] In the bar chart, the bar on the right expands between 0 and below 40, with the top fading. It has a number written inside.
[Text Displays] ~34.
[Video Footage] Below the x axis, a text box, explaining what the chart represents.
[Text Displays] ~ $4 billion in nFCF in 2024
[Video Footage] The box in the middle focuses on stable production.
[Text Displays]
Stable production
Sustaining production with new high-margin barrels
[Video Footage] Below the headers, a line area chart with three filled areas. The bottom one is dark grey; the one above is light grey and the top one is light blue. They have fluctuating top edges to show the change in number value over time. On the y axis numbers ranging from 0 to 400 in increments of 200. Above the y axis a text box specifies what it represents.
[Text Displays] 0, 200, 400 - Production (kboe/d)
[Video Footage] On the x axis, three years are displayed, one at the far left, one in the middle and one at the far right of the chart.
[Text Displays] 2016, 2023, 2030.
[Video Footage] Below the x axis, a legend with a small dark grey square, a light grey square and a light blue square, explaining what the chart represents.
[Text Displays] Base & WRFM. Infill, debottlenecking & backfill. New fields.
[Video Footage] The box on the right focuses on future expectations.
[Text Displays]
Delivering above expectations
Increasing resources recovery of world-class reservoirs
[Video Footage] Below the headers, a bar chart with blue bars. On the y axis percentages ranging from 100% to 116% in increments of 4. Above the y axis a text box specifies what it represents.
[Text Displays]
Relative EUR improvements versus 2016 baseline
[Video Footage] EUR has a footnote.
[Text Display] Estimated Ultimate Recovery of 2P + 2C.
[Video Footage] On the x axis, years from 2016 to 2024 in increments of 1.
[Text Displays] 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024.
[Video Footage] The 2016 and 2021 bars are empty.
[Video Footage] Below the x bars, a text box explaining what they represent.
[Text Displays] Delivering 14% higher resources than initial plan, ~400 million boe
Sinead Gorman
So, if you move from a story of pioneering to one of partnerships, let's look south to Brazil. Through a strategic relationship with the national oil company, we're unlocking value in world-class reservoirs through state-of-the-art technology, combining both global experience and local knowledge. We've built a major [pre-sold] position in the Santos Basin, partnering with Petrobras to develop high-margin, lower-carbon barrels across 19 FPSOs in operation today, and with three more set to come online by 2030. Further growth opportunities on the horizon should maintain significant liquids in Brazil, with production of around 380,000 barrels per day into the 2030s. This exceeds any of our IOC peers. Our Brazil portfolio features long-life assets with high flow rates. And, as a result, these are some of the most competitive barrels in our portfolio on both operating cost and carbon footprint, bringing resilience through a low free cash flow break-even price. Shell has been able to bring our international experience and technical capability, especially in areas like WRFM and near-field exploration, whilst Petrobras leads with deep local expertise, subsurface understanding, and operational excellence. And, as the Brazilian fields mature, we will bring our mid-life asset experience from the Gulf of America to unlock the full potential of our joint resources. This partnership has allowed us to grow our estimated ultimate recovery by 14 percent since establishing our position as the leading foreign producer in 2016, and to add 400 million barrels in additional resources. We will seek to leverage these learnings from the partnership in our own Shell projects, including our recently announced FID on Gato do Mato. As our first operated asset in Brazil offshore since 2009, this a great example of capital discipline and our philosophy of value over volume in action. After engaging with contractors and redesigning the project, we've now sanctioned an FPSO that offers an improvement of approximately 75 percent in NPV compared with the proposal two years ago.
[Video Footage] A new slide appears on the split screen with Sinead on the left. The slide is about conventional oil & gas.
[Text Displays]
Integrated Gas and Upstream
Conventional Oil & Gas – Stable production, consistent margins, cash flow longevity
[Video Footage] Under the main title, three large boxes contain three different graphs, showing past progress and future projections in Upstream. The first box on the left focuses on Consistent margins.
[Text Displays]
Consistent margins
High-graded to stain stable unit margins
[Video Footage] Below the headers, a bar chart with two yellow bars. On the y axis numbers ranging from 0 to 20 in increments of 10. Above the y axis a text box specifies what it represents.
[Text Displays] 0, 10, 20 – CFFO excl. WC per boe ($)
[Video Footage] CFFO has 1 footnote.
[Text Displays] 2018 and the average 2025-2030 Brent price scenario are similar.
[Video Footage] On the x axis, the year periods that the bars represent.
[Text Displays] 2018, 2025-2030.
[Video Footage] In the bar chart, the bar on the left expands between 0 and just below 20 and has a number written inside.
[Text Displays] 17.
[Video Footage] In the bar chart, the bar on the right expands between 0 and just above 20, with the top fading. It has a number written inside.
[Text Displays] ~18.
[Video Footage] Below the x axis, a text box, explaining what the chart represents.
[Text Displays] ~ $6 billion in nFCF in 2024
[Video Footage] The box in the middle focuses on liquids production.
[Text Displays]
Stable liquids production
Operational excellence exceeding liquids production
[Video Footage] Below the headers, a line area chart with two filled areas. The bottom one is yellow and top one is grey. They have fluctuating top edges to show the change in number value over time. On the y axis number ranging from 0 to 1200 in increments of 400. Above the y axis a text box specifies what it represents.
[Text Displays] 0, 400, 800, 1200 - Production (kboe/d)
[Video Footage] On the x axis, three years are displayed, one at the far left, one close to the far right end and one at the far right of the chart.
[Text Displays] 2025, 2030, 2035.
[Video Footage] In the yellow area a text box provides additional details.
[Text Displays] Stable liquids supported by Oman and Kazakhstan - 60% of liquids production
[Video Footage] Below the x axis, a legend with a small yellow square and a small grey square explaining what the colours represents.
[Text Displays] Liquids. Natural gas.
[Video Footage] Below the x bars, a text box explaining what they represent.
[Text Displays] FCF neutral ~$40/bbl
[Video Footage] The box on the right focuses on cash flow.
[Text Displays]
Resilient cash flow
Lower commodity price leverage adds cash flow stability
[Video Footage] Below the headers, scatter chart. Inside the chart a grey bar is placed diagonally and inside it red dots are scattered along an upwards line. Above it yellow dots are scattered along another upwards line. On the y axis numbers ranging from 0 to 80 in increments of 20. Above the y axis a text box specifies what it represents.
[Text Displays] Quarterly CFFO excl. WC per boe ($)
[Video Footage] boe has a footnote.
[Text Displays] 2021 to 2024 quarterly data
[Video Footage] On the y axis numbers ranging from 40 to 120 in increments of 20.
[Text Displays] 40, 60, 80, 120
[Video Footage] Below the numbers, a text box explains what they represent.
[Text Displays] Realised prices ($/bbl)
[Video Footage] Below the x bars, a legend with a small red square and a small yellow square, explaining what the colours in the chart represent.
[Text Displays] COG offers 50% less cash flow sensitivity to commodity prices
Sinead Gorman
Conventional Oil and Gas business, or COG, completes the Advantaged Upstream story. This a portfolio characterised by deep experience in countries with long-standing relationships. COG provides the foundation to sustain our material liquids production portfolio beyond 2030. We see strong and consistent margin delivery of approximately 18 dollars per barrel, which is driven by low-risk oil and high-value gas assets. We have high-graded this portfolio over the past several years exiting positions with limited running room or higher costs and carbon, whilst continuing to invest in positions like Oman and Kazakhstan that provide longevity in liquids and cash flow. We're also implementing new business models for later-life assets, such as the announced joint venture with Equinor in the UK North Sea, which I touched on earlier. From this new business model, we will extract more value from our combined UK assets, through an independently operated JV. We've also successfully divested our onshore operations in Nigeria, completing the sale of SPDC to Renaissance. This strategic move allows us to focus on our Deepwater and Integrated Gas Projects, reinforcing our commitment to delivering value. So, this is a journey defined by knowing our competitive context in each country and positioning the organisation behind the levers that have the most impact on improving efficiency and increasing value. Whether that be partnerships or business models, reliability, turnarounds, or WRFM. As we've seen in the past five years, the landscape of our business is constantly changing.
[Video Footage] The shot changes to show only the slide on the screen.
Sinead Gorman
However, COG provides commodity price resilience through much lower cash flow sensitivity which complements our higher-margin Deepwater business.
[Video Footage] The shot changes to the split screen with Sinead on the left and the slide on the right.
Sinead Gorman
And, with that, back to you Wael.
[Video Footage] A new slides appears on screen. Sinead leaves the podium and Wael arrives. Shot change to a view of the whole stage. Wael at the podium and Sinead sitting at the table to the right of it. At the back of the stage, three arches in the structure of the wall. Inside each arch is a monitor the size and shape of the arch. On the screen in the centre is the Shell logo and on the two side screens the PowerPoint slide on a white background.
Wael Sawan
Thank you very much, Sinead. In summary, our focus on value over volume, improved operational and project delivery performance, and disciplined capital allocation…
[Video Footage] Shot change back to Wael at the podium.
Wael Sawan
…have created a leading IG business which we will grow and an Upstream portfolio that supports our ambition to sustain…
[Video Footage] Shot change to a view of the whole stage. Wael at the podium and Sinead sitting at the table to the right of it. At the back of the stage, three arches in the structure of the wall. Inside each arch is a monitor the size and shape of the arch. On the screen in the centre is the Shell logo and on the two side screens the PowerPoint slide on a white background.
Wael Sawan
…material liquids production well into the 2030s. We're committed to oil and gas…
[Video Footage] Shot change back to Wael at the podium.
Wael Sawan
and to delivering value over the long term from our advantaged portfolio of assets and differentiated set of capabilities, which we believe will drive longevity, growth, and attractive returns. Let's move now to Downstream and Renewables & Energy Solutions, or DSR
[Video Footage] Shot change to the split screen with Wael on the left and the slide on the right. The slide is about Downstream and Renewables & Energy Solutions. The title of the slide is in a text box on the left and the rest of the slide is occupied by an image of a lit-up gas station at dusk, the Shell logo outline is superimposed on the image.
[Text Displays] Downstream and Renewables & Energy Solutions
Wael Sawan
where we have made significant progress since our CMD23 and see a lot of opportunity to continue on that journey.
[Video Footage] The same slide on Enhancing performance and unlocking potential across the portfolio appears on the split screen with Wael on the left.
[Video Footage] This time, in the box on the left, only the three bottom terms in the two lists are in black, the other terms are greyed out.
[Text Displays]
Mobility Products
Lubricants
[Video Footage] To the side of the left box is a pair of smaller boxes approximate breakdowns.
[Text Displays]
⁓$ 45 billion.
Capital employed
⁓20%.
⁓15% ROACE.
[Video Footage] The box on the right is about returns and options.
[Text Displays] High-grade Returns, harness options
Focusing portfolio to improve returns and unlock value whilst developing low carbon options
[Video Footage] Below the box headings, two lists of terms, with three terms underlined in light blue, one next to the other.
[Text Displays]
Chemicals Power
Low Carbon Options Low carbon fuels Hydrogen CCS
[Video Footage] Power has a footnote.
[Text Displays] Exported within R&ES segment
[Video Footage] Options has a foot note
[Text Displays] Reported with marketing and R&ES segments
[Video Footage] Next to the 2nd list term, a text box providing additional information
[Text Displays] Capital employed held at [ILLEGIBLE] than 10% [ILLEGIBLE] group
[Video Footage] To the side of the right box is a pair of smaller boxes approximate breakdowns.
[Text Displays]
⁓$ 45 billion.
Capital employed
⁓20%.
⁓2% ROACE.
[Video Footage] A text box underlines the two boxes.
[Text Displays] Unparalleled Trading & Supply Capabilities
[Video Footage] In the footnote a text box giving more details on the slide
[Text Displays] Capital Employed and ROACE.
Wael Sawan
We have a portfolio of businesses that reside within DSR, which span both sides of the framework that we used earlier in the group session and across IG and Upstream. DSR brings together our customer-facing businesses where we have leadership positions such as in Mobility and Lubricants, as well as our high-graded Products portfolio, underpinned by trading. They represent about half of the capital employed in DSR. These are attractive businesses. Today, with 15 percent return on average capital employed and offering cash flow longevity and resilience. We're proud of the strong progress that we have made during our first sprint and we'll continue to drive performance so that they can realise their full potential. On the other side, there are businesses representing a further 45 billion dollars of capital employed where more work is needed and where the returns are not where we want them to be. Starting with Chemicals. Here, we are repositioning our portfolio to unlock value and improve returns. In Power, we are driving a strategic shift in our business, reallocating capital to areas of the value chain where we see higher returns and that leverage our strengths. That brings me to our Low Carbon Options, which together, represent today around 5 billion dollars of capital employed across low-carbon fuels, CCS, and hydrogen. We will continue to develop these businesses to provide a platform of options we are building for the future, but will do so with capital discipline, harnessing our trading capabilities and driving deeper integration across our portfolio. Across these Low Carbon Options and together with our Power business, we will manage capital employed to ensure that we are deploying capital where we truly see the potential to create value in line with demand. Going forward, we will limit capital employed across these businesses to below 10 percent of our total capital employed, with dynamic capital allocation based on returns.
[Video Footage] A new slides appears on the split screen. The slide is about the integrated portfolio.
[Text Displays]
Downstream and Renewables & Energy Solutions
Integrated portfolio with upside potential
[Video Footage] In the slide, a diagram with boxes containing drawing outlines and names of specific distributions and yellow and light blue arrows originating or ending in the boxes.
[Text Displays] Integrated Gas & Upstream. Downstream and Renewables & Energy Solutions. Products & Chemicals. Marketing. Power generation. Power. H2. Carbon capture and storage. Electrolyser. Flex generation and storage.
[Video Footage] All the arrows point right, to a list of nine terms.
[Text Displays]
Products
Chemicals
Convenience and EV
Fuels
Lubricants
Low carbon fuels
Carbon capture
Hydrogen
Power
[Video Footage] Convenience and EV, Fuels, Lubricants, Low carbon fuels have a footnote.
[Text Displays] Reported within Marketing segment.
[Video Footage] Carbon capture, Hydrogen, Power have another footnote.
[Text Displays] Reported within R&ES segment.
[Video Footage] To the right of the drawings, the arrows and the list of terms, a legend with numbers underlined in yellow or light blue the capital employed in $ billion.
[Text Displays]
2024 Capital employed ($ billion)
~20
~25
~18
~
~4
~1
~15
[Video Footage] Below the drawings, the arrows and the list of terms, a legend with a yellow small square and a light blue small square explaining what the colours represent.
[Text Displays] Growth, longevity, Resilience. High-grade Returns, Harness Options
Wael Sawan
Our integrated business model provides a competitive advantage to deliver both today and through the energy transition. Our DSR businesses form an interconnected value chain of energy products and solutions, one that is virtually impossible to replicate. But, we have some portfolio reallocation ahead to fully maximise the benefits of this integration. We have deep customer relationships. We have the strongest brand in our sector. We operate thousands of assets, manage complex product flows, hold long-term supply contracts, and run extensive logistics infrastructure across terminals, depots, and tanks and we have unparalleled trading and optimisation capabilities. These unique strengths allow us to maximise integrated value and create competitive differentiation. They enable us to navigate market volatility, allocate resources to the most attractive opportunities, and ensure that every barrel, molecule, and kilowatt is generating value. Our integration also allows us to optimise value by extracting margin at multiple points, from Upstream production to Downstream sales and Renewables. When refining margins are weak, the trading uplift and marketing margins can still generate strong returns. And, last but not least, it gives us strategic flexibility in the energy transition to shift capital to where the best opportunities arise.
[Video Footage] A new slides appears on the split screen. The slide is about future progress during the first phase.
[Text Displays]
Downstream and Renewables & Energy Solutions
Delivering significant progress during our first sprint
[Video Footage] Under the main title, three large boxes contain four different graphs and tow lists, showing past progress and future projections. The first box on the left focuses on Performance.
[Text Displays]
Performance
[Video Footage] Below the header, the box is split into two bar charts. The bar chart in the top half of the box has four bars segmented in red, yellow and grey. On the y axis numbers ranging from -10 to 20 in increments of 10. Above the y axis a text box specifies what it represents.
[Text Displays] -10, 0, 10, 20 – Cash flow growth from prior investments ($ billion)
[Video Footage] On the x axis, the years that the bars represent.
[Text Displays] 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024.
[Video Footage] In the bar chart, the first bar on the left expands between 0 and 10 and is segmented in yellow and red. The second bar expands between -10 and just below 20 and is segmented in grey, yellow and red. The third bar expands between 0 and just below 20 and is segmented in yellow, red and grey. The last bar expands between 0 and slightly closer to 20 and is segmented in yellow, red and grey. A black line originating from the middle point at the base of the first bar, cuts the chart down to the grey area of the second bar, and then cuts the other two bars going upwards. Below the x axis, a legend with a small yellow square, a black line, a small red square and a small grey square explaining what the colours represent.
[Text Displays]
Chemicals & Production CFFO Free cash flow
Marketing CFFO R&ES CFFO
[Video Footage] The bar chart in the bottom half of the box has six yellow bars. On the y axis percentages ranging from 0% to 15% in increments of 5. Above the y axis a text box specifies what it represents.
[Text Displays] 0%, 5%, 10%, 15% – Turnaround in Mobility & lubricants returns (4Q rolling ROACE, %)
[Video Footage] On the x axis, the quarters and corresponding years that the bars represent.
[Text Displays] Q3 ‘23, Q4 ’23, Q1 ’24, Q2 ’24, Q3 ’24, Q4 ’24.
[Video Footage] Above each bar is a percentage.
[Text Displays] 10%, 11%, 11%, 11%, 13%, 14%.
[Video Footage] The box in the middle focuses on Discipline.
[Text Displays]
Discipline
[Video Footage] Below the header, the box is split into two bar charts. The bar chart in the top half of the box has four bars segmented in red and grey, with the red covering most of the area of the bars. On the y axis numbers ranging from 0 to 15 in increments of 5. Above the y axis a text box specifies what it represents.
[Text Displays] 0, 5, 10, 15 – Focusing Downstream and E&ES cash capex ($ billion)
[Video Footage] On the x axis, the years that the bars represent.
[Text Displays] 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024.
[Video Footage] Below the x axis, a legend with a small red square and a small grey square explaining what the colours represents.
[Text Displays] Organic. Inorganic.
[Video Footage] The bar chart in the bottom half of the box has four bars, the two external ones are grey and the two internal ones are one red and one yellow. Above them a text box specifies what the chart represents.
[Text Displays] $1.5 billion structural savings in Downstream and R&ES (underlying operating expenses, $ billion)
[Video Footage] Above each bar a number. For the two external bars not in brackets, but for the two internal bars in brackets.
[Text Displays] 23.2, ~(0.5), ~(1.1), 21.6
[Video Footage] Below the two external bars two years, and below the two internal bars two terms.
[Text Displays] 2022. Portfolio. Non-Portfolio. 2024
[Video Footage] The box on the right focuses on Simplification.
[Text Displays]
Simplification
[Video Footage] Below the header, two lists in different colour points. The first list is about High-grading and has seven points in grey, red and yellow.
[Text Displays]
High-grading
SouthCoast wind divestment
HEFA Pernis pause
Shell Pakistan divestment
Mexico retail sites divestment
Philippines offshore wind divestment
South Korea offshore wind divestment
Singapore refining and chemicals divestment
[Video Footage] divestment has a footnote.
[Text Displays] Subject to completion.
[Video Footage] The second list is about Growth and has three points in red and grey.
[Text Displays]
Growth
Lubricants acquisition
US fuel and convenience sites acquisition
Rhode Island CCGT acquisition
[Video Footage] Below the lists, a legend with small yellow, red, and grey squares explaining what the colours represent.
[Text Displays] chemicals & Products. Marketing. R&ES

Wael Sawan
During our last Capital Markets Day in 2023, we acknowledged that performance had been below expectations in the DSR businesses. A turnaround was required and it had to be a significant reset, not only in terms of our strategic focus but also across capital allocation and cost management. I'm pleased to say we have made good progress over the past two years. In 2024, these businesses generated over 12 billion dollars in free cash flow, the highest in several years, reflecting strong performance and disciplined execution. In marketing, we achieved the highest annual adjusted earnings since 2020 at almost 4 billion dollars. All this despite the price environment being much less advantageous than the price assumptions that we used at CMD23 when we set the 4-to-5-billion-dollars range in earnings. We've been disciplined on cost, delivering 1.5 billion dollars in structural cost savings…
[Video Footage] The shot changes to show only the slide on the screen.
Wael Sawan
… through both portfolio simplification as well as accelerated decision-making.
[Video Footage] The shot changes to the split screen with Wael on the left and the slide on the right.
Wael Sawan
Cash CapEx has been lowered by one-third to 8 billion dollars significantly contributing to the improved free cash flow performance between 2022 and 2024. We have high-graded the portfolio. We have exited assets and countries where Shell has had a long history. We have paused projects and raised the bar for investments. The past couple of years represent good progress, but there is so much more to do and I will hand it back to Sinead now to explain how we will deliver this in a lot more detail.
[Video Footage] Wael leaves the podium and Sinead arrives. A new slides appears on the split screen. The slide focuses on future projects.
[Text Displays]
Downstream and Renewables & Energy Solutions
We’ve only just begun
[Video Footage] Under the main title, three large boxes contain four different graphs, showing past progress and future projections. The first box on the left focuses on continued discipline.
[Text Displays]
Continued capital cost discipline
[Video Footage] Below the header, the box is split into two bar charts. The bar chart in the top half of the box has two bars, the left one is all grey and the right one is segmented in yellow, red and grey. On the y axis numbers ranging from 0 to 10 in increments of 5. Above the y axis a text box specifies what it represents.
[Text Displays] 0, 5, 10 – Focused allocation of cash capex ($ billion)
[Video Footage] On the x axis, the year periods that the bars represent.
[Text Displays] 2023-2024. 2025-2028
[Video Footage] Above the bar on the right, a text box adds information
[Text Displays] ~20% decrease
[Video Footage] Below the x axis, a legend with small yellow, red and grey squares explaining what the colours represent.
[Text Displays] Chemicals & Production. Marketing. R&ES.
[Video Footage] The bar chart in the bottom half of the box has three red bars. The chart develops downward, into the minus values of the y axis. On the y axis numbers ranging from 0 to -4 in increments of 2. Above the y axis a text box specifies what it represents.
[Text Displays] 0, -2, -4 – Cumulative structural cost reduction ($ billion)
[Video Footage] On the x axis, the years and year periods that the bars represent.
[Text Displays] 2023. 2023-2024. 2023-2028.
[Video Footage] The box in the middle focuses on cash flow growth.
[Text Displays]
Driving margin and cash flow growth
[Video Footage] Below the header, a bar chart with two external grey bars representing two year periods and four yellow bars with a fading top edge, representing actions taken in three specific distributions.
[Text Displays] Cost reductions. Growth. Portfolio high-grading. Harnessing options.

[Video Footage] On the y axis numbers ranging from 10 to 18 in increments of 2. Above the y axis a text box specifies what it represents.
[Text Displays] 0, 12, 14, 16, 18 – Downstream and Renewables & Energy Solutions
CFFO excl. WC ($ billion)
[Video Footage] On the x axis, the 2 year periods and the three distributions that the bars represent.
[Text Displays] 2023-2024. Mobility & Lubricants. Chemicals & Products. Power and Low Carbon Options. 2025-2030.
[Video Footage] Below the x axis, a text box providing more details on the chart.
[Text Displays] ~25% increase in CFFO excl. WC.
[Video Footage] The box on the right focuses on future high-return portfolio.
[Text Displays] Resulting in a higher-return portfolio
[Video Footage] A bar chart with two red bars, the one on the right has a fading top edge. Above them a text box specifies what the chart represents.
[Text Displays] Downstream and Renewables & Energy Solutions ROACE (%)
[Video Footage] Above each bar a percentage.
[Text Displays] 6%. ~10%.
[Video Footage] Below the two bars the years that they represent.
[Text Displays] 2024. 2030
[Video Footage] Below the x axis, a text box providing more details on the chart.
[Text Displays] ~10% ROACE by 2030.
Sinead Gorman
Thanks, Wael. Bless you. Although we are on the right pathway, we will continue to be guided by our principles of performance, discipline, and simplification, building on the progress we've made over the last two years. We are actively reallocating capital from lower-return areas to businesses and markets where we have proven we can deliver and have clear competitive advantages. We will maintain our capital discipline and continue to drive costs down. And our simplification journey will continue with relentless focus on value over volume, high-grading the portfolio where we see the opportunity to do so. We expect our businesses to deliver over 15 billion dollars in CFFO excluding working capital per year on average from 2025 through to 2030. And, in a lower oil price environment, they will benefit from both their existing resilience and our ongoing efforts. At the same time, we will work hard to ensure they deliver returns above 10 percent by the end of the decade…
[Video Footage] Shot change to a view of the whole stage. Sinead at the podium and Wael sitting at the table to the right of it. At the back of the stage, three arches in the structure of the wall. Inside each arch is a monitor the size and shape of the arch. On the screen in the centre is the Shell logo and on the two side screens the PowerPoint slide on a white background.
Sinead Gorman
… including the low-carbon options that we are developing for the future.
[Video Footage] Shot change to the split screen with Sinead on the left and the slide on the right.
Sinead Gorman
This improvement journey will be an important lever in driving up return on capital employed at the group level and also enable Shell to create more value with less emissions. To substantiate these numbers, let's look at some of our core downstream businesses starting with Mobility and Lubricants.
[Video Footage] A new slide appears on the split screen with Sinead on the left. The slide is about Mobility and Lubricants.
[Text Displays]
Downstream and Renewable & Energy Solutions
Mobility & Lubricants – Attractive fundamentals benefitting portfolio
[Video Footage]
Below the header are three boxes with graphics inside. The left box contains an area line chart on market fundamentals.
[Text Displays]
Evolving market fundamentals
Mobility & Lubricants value pools ($ billion)
[Video Footage]
Value pools has a footnote.
[Text Displays]
Value pool data in combination of Bloomberg New Energy Finance, McKinsey market outlooks, Shell scenarios & margin forecasts.
[Video Footage]
The y axis of the chart is numbered from 0 to 200 in increments of 50.
[Text Displays]
0. 50. 100. 150. 200.
[Video Footage]
The x axis shows the years at which these levels will be achieved.
[Text Displays]
2022. 2030. 2035.
[Video Footage]
Below the chart is a colour-coded legend showing what each of the area’s colours represents.
[Text Displays]
Lubricants. Fuel. Convenience Retail. EV.
[Video Footage]
The middle box contains a series of boxes with key concepts on the left and information about them on the right. There is a title at the top of the box.
[Text Displays]
Re-positioning our portfolio
[Video Footage]
The first row is about market focus.
[Text Displays]
Market Focus. 80% cash capex in 10 key markets that account for the majority of cash flow
[Video Footage]
Capex has a footnote.
[Text Displays]
Mobility markets, excluding core maintenance spend.
[Video Footage]
The second row is about high-grading.
[Text Displays]
Portfolio high-grading. Divested Pakistan, Mexico mobility businesses and >500 sites.
Exit EV home and workplace charging
[Video Footage]
The third row is about premium offerings.
[Text Displays]
Grow premium offerings. Shell V-Power, Helix Ultra Lubricants, Shell Recharge, Shell Café.
[Video Footage]
The fourth row is about discipline.
[Text Displays]
Cost and capital discipline. ⁓30% lower cash capex versus the last five years with continued cost focus.
[Video Footage]
Capex has a footnote.
[Text Displays]
2025-2030.
[Video Footage]
The third box contains an area line chart with a large grey area reducing in size over time, and a yellow line growing over time. At the top there is a title.
[Text Displays]
Building on recent margin expansion
[Video Footage]
The left y axis is labelled and has numbers ranging from 0 to 25 in increments of 5.
[Text Displays]
Gross margin per bbl sold ($)
0. 5. 10. 15. 20. 25.
[Video Footage]
The right y axis is labelled and has numbers ranging from 0 to 3 in increments of 1.
[Text Displays]
Sales volume (mb/d)
0. 1. 2. 3.
[Video Footage]
Written across the grey section is a statement.
[Text Displays]
⁓50% Gross margin per barrel improvement since 2019
[Video Footage]
The x axis has the years labelled.
[Text Displays]
2019. 2024.
[Video Footage]
Below the chart is a colour-coded legend showing the meanings of the yellow and grey colours.
[Text Displays]
Gross margin per bbl. Sales volume.
Sinead Gorman
As Mobility and Lubricants total addressable markets evolve, we believe our businesses are positioned to thrive and will remain resilient, even as traditional fuel demand declines in some areas. The expansion of premium fuels, EV charging, convenience retail, and advanced lubricants continues to create high-value opportunities, driving long-term profitability even as fuelling, vehicle, and industry trends are changing. In response, we continue to sharpen our strategy and focus on value over volume across our global footprint. In Mobility, we are transforming our retail and convenience stores into convenience destinations, catering to evolving customer preferences with food and beverage services, convenient EV charging and personalised loyalty offers. In Lubricants, we continue to invest in premium, high-efficiency products, whether for internal combustion engines, electric vehicles, or industrial applications. These offerings create long-term value in areas where we have market leadership and competitive advantages. Our goal remains, to maximise returns, enhance efficiency, and unlock the full potential of these world-class businesses. We will achieve this through targeting strict capital discipline, prioritising the most profitable areas of our portfolio, continuous high grading, and expansion of premium offerings. We will also continue to optimise our cost structure and selectively invest in opportunities where we see clear and compelling returns. With this in mind, we will spend 30 percent less in cash CapEx over the next five years versus the last. And, we will be highly selective on where we spend this. In Mobility, where we have a global footprint, 80 percent of our cash CapEx will be spent in 10 key markets where we generate the majority of our cash flow. Markets like here in the U.S., Canada, and the UK to name a few. Additionally, we are expanding premium fuels and lubricants by enhancing high-performance products like Shell V-Power and Helix Ultra. This focus has already enabled us to increase our gross margin per barrel by around 50 percent. All this despite a conscious reduction in sales volumes in pursuit of value when compared with 2019.
[Video Footage] A new slide appears in the split screen. The slide regards Mobility & Lubricants and customer needs.
[Text Displays]
Downstream and Renewable & Energy Solutions
Mobility & Lubricants – Expanding margins as customer needs evolve
[Video Footage]
Below the header are three boxes with graphics inside. The left box contains a header and five smaller text boxes.
[Text Displays]
Positioned to capture even more value by 2030
8-10% CAGR in food & beverage gross margin
[Video Footage]
The word margin has a number 1 footnote.
[Text Displays]
2024 base year.
[Video Footage]
The boxes continue.
[Text Displays]
>2x E-Mobility gross margin
[Video Footage]
The word margin is followed by the same number footnote. The boxes continue.
[Text Displays]
3-5% CAGR on loyalty customers
[Video Footage]
The word margin is followed by the same number footnote. The boxes continue.
[Text Displays]
⁓30% Premium fuels gross margin contribution, from 26% in 2024
⁓50% Premium lubricants gross margin contribution, from 47% in 2024
[Video Footage]
The middle box contains a bar chart with three bars made up of different coloured sections. There is a header.
[Text Displays]
Leading to medium term margin expansion
[Video Footage]
The y axis has a label and is numbered 0 to 20 in increments of 5.
[Text Displays]
Gross margin ($ billion)
0. 5. 10. 15. 20.
[Video Footage]
The x axis contains the year range labels for each bar.
[Text Displays]
2020-2024. 2025-2030. 2031-2035.
[Video Footage]
Below the chart is a colour-coded legend showing the things that each colour indicates.
[Text Displays]
Lubricants. Fuels. Other income, EV. Convenience.
[Video Footage]
EV has a footnote.
[Text Displays]
Includes income from commercial fuels, cord [sic] fees, operating fees, and EV.
[Video Footage]
The third graphic contains a split colour bar chart, where each year range has a yellow and a red bar. There is a heading at the top.
[Text Displays]
Supporting rising free cash flow into the 2030s
[Video Footage]
The y axis has a label and is numbered from 0 to 8 in increments of 2.
[Text Displays]
$ billion
0. 2. 4. 6. 8.
[Video Footage]
The x axis has the year ranges of each pair of bars.
[Text Displays]
2020-2024. 2025-2030. 2031-2035.
[Video Footage]
Below the chart is a colour-coded legend showing the things that each colour indicates.
[Text Displays]
CFFO excl. WC. Cash capex.

Sinead Gorman

So, as the fuel value pool evolves, we see the potential for significant growth in premium fuels. Our premium Shell V-Power fuels are now one of the best-selling performance fuels on the market and are expected to contribute around 30 percent of our gross margin by 2030. With roughly 75 percent of our company-owned sites being either freehold or held under long-term leases and with over 80 percent of these sites based in strategic, high-traffic areas, with significant potential for convenience and EV growth, our retail network is resilient, and well-positioned, for the long-term. At the same time, while the EV value pools grow, Shell's EV-related gross margin is projected to significantly increase by 2030 as we expand our retail offering. We will flex investment to meet evolving demand. At our last CMD, we outlined an ambition to grow the number of EV charge points to 70,000 by 2025 and 200,000 by 2030. Having already achieved our 2025 ambition one year early, we will retire the 200,000 by 2030 ambition as we shift our focus from charger numbers to profitable growth. Beyond fuel, we're expanding our convenience retail business, offering a broader range of services that align with a potential shift in consumer preferences and increasing EV adoption. In food and beverage alone, we expect an 8 to 10 percent compound annual growth rate by 2030. Now, let's talk about lubricants. Our Shell Lubricants business is often underappreciated. Lubricants is a deregulated industry with highly specialised requirements and bespoke formulations. Our strategy is focused on growing our premium product offering which delivers high margins…
[Video Footage] The shot changes to show only the slide on the screen.
Sinead Gorman
…and we expect Shell's premium lubricants' gross margin contribution to grow to 50 percent by 2030.
[Video Footage] Shot change to a view of the whole stage. Sinead at the podium and Wael sitting at the table to the right of it. At the back of the stage, three arches in the structure of the wall. Inside each arch is a monitor the size and shape of the arch. On the screen in the centre is the Shell logo and on the two side screens the PowerPoint slide on a white background.
Sinead Gorman
This growth is driven by three key factors: rising demand for high value premium products that improve energy efficiency…
[Video Footage] Shot change to the split screen with Sinead on the left and the slide on the right.
Sinead Gorman
continued demand for premium lubricants in internal combustion engine vehicles especially in Asia-Pacific and the Middle East, and lastly, the opportunities in E-Fluids for EVs, thanks to our strong OEM partnerships. This also extends to high-value fluids for EV battery and data centre thermal management. As a company, we will continue to leverage and strengthen customer relations. We're investing in differentiated customer offerings, loyalty programs, and digital solutions to grow our customer base and total customer value. To 2030 and even through 2035, we expect margin expansion in convenience and eMobility as well as greater premium sales in fuels and lubricants. This will enable us to grow cash flow into the 2030s whilst keeping overall cash CapEx flat compared to 2025 levels, thereby delivering greater free cash flow. So, to summarise, we are encouraged by the growth potential in our Mobility and Lubricants businesses which we believe nicely complement the growth we see across our LNG sales and Oil and Gas Production, and with a duration that much like LNG…
[Video Footage] Shot change to a view of the whole stage. Sinead at the podium and Wael sitting at the table to the right of it. At the back of the stage, three arches in the structure of the wall. Inside each arch is a monitor the size and shape of the arch. On the screen in the centre is the Shell logo and on the two side screens the PowerPoint slide on a white background.
Sinead Gorman
which will last well into the next decade, and beyond.
[Video Footage] Shot change to the split screen with Sinead on the left and a new slide appears on the right. The slide regards products and trading.
[Text Displays]
Downstream and Renewable & Energy Solutions
Products – Focused portfolio enabled by Trading
[Video Footage]
Below the header are two boxes with graphics inside. The left box regards portfolio actions.
[Text Displays]
Portfolio actions creating top-quartile portfolio
Refining net cash margin ($/bbl)
[Video Footage]
The word margin has a footnote.
[Text Displays]
Based on a global industry refining net cash margin model (2018-2023), reflecting projected improvements in Shell’s refining net cash margins in 2025 and 2027, driven by impact of investments, [illegible], and other improvements.
[Video Footage]
The graphic contains a line representing actions over the four quartiles. The line starts high on the left and slopes gradually down to the far right. Along the length of the line at the section between quartiles 1 and 2, there are dots along the line which represent years in a descending order left to right. The years are linked together by arrows which point upwards along the growth line.
[Text Displays]
2027. 2025. 2023. 2018.
[Video Footage]
On the right of this graphic are three text boxes.
[Text Displays]
Portfolio footprint
Complex, flexible assets
Core refineries
Pernis, Rheinland, Norco, Scotford
Decarbonising assets
6 FIDs since 2023
[Video Footage]
The right box a line chart and a horizontal bar chart with three yellow bars. There is a header at the top.
[Text Displays]
Products & Trading differentiation versus US refiners
Adjusted EBITDA per boe² ($)
[Video Footage]
The y axis of the line chart shows numbers ranging from -5 to 15 in uneven increments.
[Text Displays]
-5. 5. 15.
[Video Footage]
The x axis has labels showing the years.
[Text Displays]
2019. 2020. 2021. 2022. 2023. 2024.
[Video Footage]
To the right of the line chart is a colour-coded legend showing what the red line and grey area represent.
[Text Displays]
Shell
US refiners range
[Video Footage]
The second graphic has a header.
[Text Displays]
Focused refinery footprint supports earning resilience
Average distillation capacity (kb/d)
[Video Footage]
The left y axis shows the year each bar represents from top to bottom.
[Text Displays]
2024
2018
2004
[Video Footage]
The right y axis has a label and numbers.
[Text Displays]
# Refineries
7
20
51
[Video Footage]
The word refineries has a footnote.
[Text Displays]
Year-end 2024 refinery count excludes Singapore refinery (deal expected to close in Q1 2025)
Sinead Gorman
Now, let me tell you about our Products business where our strategy will enable us to continue to deliver value. We have a highly focused high-graded portfolio, which we aim to enhance financial performance whilst at the same time supporting the energy transition by repurposing assets where we can create greater value. This month, we shut down a crude distiller at our Rheinland refinery, repurposing the asset into a high-quality base oils plant for E-Fluids and engine and transmission oils.
[Video Footage] The shot changes to show only the slide on the screen.
Sinead Gorman
We have reduced our refining footprint while more than doubling the average refinery capacity.
[Video Footage] Shot change to the split screen with Sinead on the left and the slide on the right.
Sinead Gorman
Over the years, we have high-graded our Refining portfolio reducing our footprint from 51 refineries in 2004 to just seven today with the completion of the Singapore divestment expected next week. We will have four core refineries in the portfolio: Pernis and Rheinland in northwest Europe, Norco and Scotford in North America. By harvesting non-core refineries for cash, repurposing them, or disposing of them, we can focus on a smaller number of high-performing facilities that generate stronger financial returns. So, what defines the assets we've chosen to retain? They share three key characteristics. First, their strategic footprint. We maintain complex, flexible assets with strong logistics, located in key markets. Second, our assets are deeply integrated with Shell's trading capabilities, enabling us to maximise value where others can't. Trading provides a competitive edge, optimises crude sourcing, product placement, and risk management which enables greater flexibility and higher earnings. And lastly, profitable decarbonisation. We are investing in decarbonising our refining assets to ensure they remain competitive through the energy transition. In 2024 alone, we committed to projects that aim to reduce approximately 2 million tonnes of Scope 1 and 2 emissions. This includes major projects such as Polaris, the carbon capture and storage project at Scotford Energy and Chemicals Park in Canada, which will capture an additional 650,000 tonnes of CO2 annually once completed. The transformation of our refining business is deliberate, disciplined, and value-driven, resulting in lower per-barrel costs, and an increase in refining net cash margin where we expect to be top quartile in 2025. Now, to Chemicals, Wael.
[Video Footage] Shot change to a view of the whole stage. Sinead walks away from the podium and Wael arrives. At the back of the stage, three arches in the structure of the wall. Inside each arch is a monitor the size and shape of the arch. On the screen in the centre is the Shell logo and on the two side screens the PowerPoint slide on a white background.
Wael Sawan
Thank you, Sinead. Let me start by stating that we believe we have good individual assets…
[Video Footage] Shot change of Wael at the podium.
Wael Sawan
that are well-run by a great team and that there are parts of our portfolio that also possess competitive advantages. However, given our starting point…
[Video Footage] Shot change with Wael at the podium on the left and the slide on the right. The slide regards chemicals.
[Text Displays]
Downstream and Renewable & Energy Solutions
Chemicals – Repositioning portfolio to unlock value
[Video Footage]
Below the header is a large box with two graphics inside. The left graphic is a world map with labels and certain locations marked. Above the map is a header
[Text Displays]
Realising additional value via portfolio actions.
[Video Footage]
The map has four locations marked with red boxes. The first two are in the US.
[Text Displays]
US Gulf Coast ⁓$5 billion
Shell Monaca ⁓$14 billion
[Video Footage]
The US locations are annotated with a text box.
[Text Displays]
US
Enacting strategic and/or partnership opportunities by 2030
[Video Footage]
The next location is in Europe.
[Text Displays]
Europe ⁓$2 billion
[Video Footage]
The EU location is annotated with a text box.
[Text Displays]
Europe
High-grading and selective closures due to challenged long term fundamentals
[Video Footage]
The next location is in China.
[Text Displays]
China ⁓$1.5 billion
[Video Footage]
The China location is annotated with a text box.
[Text Displays]
China
Delivering on cost advantage expansion projects
[Video Footage]
Below the map is a colour-coded legend showing the meaning of the two marker colours.
[Text Displays]
In operation. Expansion/Under construction
[Video Footage]
In operation has a footnote.
[Text Displays]
Figures represent 2024 Capital Employed, excluding ⁓$2 billion spread across multiple, smaller interests.
[Video Footage]
The second graphic shows a bar chart with some yellow and some red bars. The red bars grow up from the x axis, whilst the yellow bars are suspended in different positions. The graphic has a header.
[Text Displays]
Improving underlying cashflow across portfolio
[Video Footage]
The y axis has a label and is numbered from 0 to 3 in intervals of 1.
[Text Displays]
CFFO ($ billion)
0. 1. 2. 3.
[Video Footage]
The bars are labelled from left to right.
[Text Displays]
2024. Portfolio. Monaca. China. 2030. Other Macro.
[Video Footage]
The year 2030 is bracketed, connecting the other macro category to the year.
Below the chart is a table with three column headers.
[Text Displays]
Locations. Key Features. Differentiators.
[Video Footage]
Each row represents one of the locations.
[Text Displays]
US. World-class linear alpha [illegible], polyurethane cost leader. Proprietary technology and product slate flexibility.
China. Long-standing domestic market venture. Capital efficiency and project delivery.
Europe. Regionally competitive assets. Logistics infrastructure and energy efficiency.
[Video Footage]
Below the graphics is a sub-header.
[Text Displays]
Reducing Capital Employed by 2030
Wael Sawan
and in particular, our lack of scale in some areas, combined with competing opportunities across the group for capital, we do not believe we are the natural owners of this Chemicals portfolio.
[Video Footage] The shot changes to show only the slide on the screen.
Wael Sawan
We remain open to retaining exposure through other constructs that will allow the business to flourish such as partnerships…
[Video Footage] The shot changes to the split screen with Wael on the left and the slide on the right.
Wael Sawan
…however, our intent is to reduce capital employed by 2030. This compares to what we outlined at CMD23 where we said we would keep capital employed stable. We intend to take a regional approach in Chemicals, maintaining capital where we can drive differentiated value between the U.S., Europe, and China, steering our business through the cycle. In Europe, our assets operate efficiently and competitively, despite current margin pressures. In North America, Shell Polymers Monaca benefits from advantaged feedstock, while our U.S. Gulf Coast Linear Alpha Olefins business holds strong competitive advantages. Meanwhile, in China, we have a successful standalone joint venture with CNOOC which enabled us to take a final investment decision this year on Nanhai III and the Polycarbonates project. However, given the challenges in the industry, and in some cases, to get the most value from our investments, as I said earlier, we may not be the natural owner of these assets. During Capital Markets Day 2023, we talked about a unit-by-unit review of our chemicals and refining assets in Europe which led to the closure of several uncompetitive units. In view of persistent challenging market conditions, we will continue to high-grade and pursue closures where necessary. Furthermore, in the U.S., while we will continue to focus on optimising returns from our assets, at the same time, we will be pursuing strategic and partnership opportunities. This has the potential to help us realise value and support our intent to reduce capital employed. In China, we will continue with our existing strategy, delivering the next phase of the expansion of our joint venture, and working with CNOOC to produce high-margin products sold locally. When looking at the entirety of the portfolio, we hope that our intent is clear, to reduce our capital employed in Chemicals by 2030 and to reallocate that capital to more competitive options that we have across Shell.
[Video Footage] A new slide appears on the split screen. The slide regards power and low carbon.
[Text Displays]
Downstream and Renewable & Energy Solutions
Harnessing options across Power and Low Carbon
[Video Footage]
Below the header is a large box with three graphics inside. The left graphic is a single, multi-coloured bar representing capital reallocation. The lower, larger section is yellow and the upper, smaller section is blue. Above the bar is a header.
[Text Displays]
Reallocating capital to improve returns
[Video Footage]
The y axis of the chart has a label and is numbered from 0 to 200 in intervals of 40.
[Text Displays]
$ billion
0. 40. 80. 120. 160. 200.
[Video Footage]
Between the y axis and the bar are two statements, aligned with the smaller and larger parts of the bar respectively.
[Text Displays]
20% Capital Employed
80% Capital Employed
[Video Footage]
The bar is labelled with the year 2024. Below the bar is a colour-coded legend showing what the larger and smaller sections of the bar represent.
[Text Displays]
Growth, Longevity, Resilience
High-grade Returns, Harness Options
[Video Footage]
To the right of the bar are another two labels in line with the smaller and larger parts of the bar respectively.
[Text Displays]
- -2% ROACE
⁓15% ROACE
[Video Footage]
The upper value is connected to the second graphic by a line ending in a 2-headed arrow that goes from the top to the bottom of the bar in the second graphic. The second graphic is another single bar made up of four different coloured sections. The y axis has a label and is numbered from 0 to 40 in intervals of 10.
[Text Displays]
$ billion
0. 10. 20. 30. 40.
[Video Footage]
The bar is labelled with the year 2024. Below the bar is a colour-coded legend showing what the coloured sections of the bar represent.
[Text Displays]
Chemicals. Power.
Hydrogen & CCS. Low Carbon Fuels.
[Video Footage]
Both Power and CCS are followed by the same footnote.
[Text Displays]
Reported within R&ES segment.
[Video Footage]
Low Carbon Fuels is followed by a footnote.
[Text Displays]
Reported within Marketing segment.
[Video Footage]
To the right of the bar are another two labels in line with the three smaller and one larger parts of the bar respectively.
[Text Displays]
- .3% ROACE
⁓-2% ROACE
[Video Footage]
Written within each coloured section is an amount in white text.
[Text Displays]
⁓$4 bln
⁓$1 bln
⁓15 bln
⁓$25 bln
[Video Footage]
The upper section, made up of the three smaller segments is connected to the third graphic by another line. Above the third graphic is a header.
[Text Displays]
Holding Power and Low Carbon Options Capital Employed at <10% of group
[Video Footage]
Above the graphic is a label with a dotted line beneath it which spans above both bars.
[Text Displays]
<10% of Group Capital Employed
[Video Footage]
The y axis has a label and is numbered 0 to 20 in increments of 5.
[Text Displays]
$ billion
0. 5. 10. 15. 20.
[Video Footage]
The left bar represents the year 2024 and the right bar 2030. The left bar is made up of the same three coloured sections from the previous graphic and in the same proportions but expanded in size. The same white text is written inside each coloured segment. The right bar is pale grey and has text written inside the bar.
[Text Displays]
Allocating between Power & Low Carbon Options
[Video Footage]
Below the bar chart is a colour-coded legend showing what the three colours from the left bar represent.
[Text Displays]
Power. Low Carbon Fuels.
Hydrogen & CCS
[Video Footage]
Power and CCS are both followed by the same footnote. To the right of the pale grey bar is a dotted line with an arrow at either end that stretches from the top to the bottom of the bar like a bracket. Next to it is text.
[Text Displays]
Targeting >10% ROACE
Wael Sawan
So, I've just talked about our plans for Chemicals and that portfolio represents around 25 billion dollars of the capital employed within the 45 billion dollars that we mentioned earlier. Here, we break down the remaining 20 billion dollars that we intend to go after with the intent to substantially improve returns. Power and our low-carbon options represent 15 billion dollars and 5 billion dollars of capital employed respectively. However, ROACE across these businesses was negative last year and today we are outlining plans to turn this around. This starts with constraining the proportion of group capital employed that these businesses will represent by 2030 to less than 10 percent. We believe that by doing so, we will create a much stronger, more resilient, and more profitable set of businesses and options. Constraining capital will mean that only the highest return project will move forward and we will flexibly allocate between these two areas. And, whilst many of our low-carbon businesses remain nascent today, they are important options that will contribute to the future shape of our organisation and our investment case through the energy transition. Let's start with power.
[Video Footage] A new slide appears on the split screen. The slide is about reallocating value across Power value chain.
[Text Displays]
Downstream and Renewables & Energy Solutions
Reallocating value across Power value chain
[Video Footage] Below the main title are two large boxes with graphics and additional information. The box on the left has a header.
[Text Displays] Redeploying capital in power portfolio to improve returns
[Video Footage] Below the header, the box is split vertically into two bar charts. In the bar chart on the left, there are two bars segmented in yellow and blue. Above the y axis a text box explaining what it represents.
[Text Displays] Capital Employed ($ billion)
[Video Footage] The y axis has numbers ranging from 0 to 15 in increments on 5 and on the x axis the years that the two bars represent.
[Text Displays] 0, 5, 10, 15. 2024, 2030.
[Video Footage] Inside the bars the areas covered by the two colours have percentages indicating their extension. Two numbers in the bar on the left.
[Text Displays]
~50%
~50%
[Video Footage] Two number in the bar on the right.
[Text Displays]
~80%
~20%
[Video Footage] Above the two bars a text box with additional information
[Text Displays] <$15 billion
[Video Footage] To the right side of the right bar, a vertical double-headed arrow between the numbers 10 and 15 on the y axis, with a text explaining what it represents.
[Text Displays] Capital allocation choices.
[Video Footage] Below the x axis, a legend with a small blue square and a small yellow square explaining what the colours represent.
[Text Displays]
Trading & Flexible Assets.
Renewables Assets
[Video Footage] The bar chart on the right has four bars. The external ones are red and the internal ones are yellow. Above the chart a text box explaining what is represents.
[Text Displays] ROACE (%)
[Video Footage] Below the external bars are a year period and a year and above them two percentages.
[Text Displays] 2023-2024. 2030. 3%. ~10%
[Video Footage] The three middle bars in yellow, float from the top of the left external bar toward the top of the right external bar, in an upward trend. Below them are text boxes explaining what they represent.
[Text Displays]
Flex, trading and technology. Portfolio high/grading. Higher capital in service.
[Video Footage] Below the two bar charts, three sentences underlined in yellow.
[Text Displays]
Prioritising investment in flexible generation, battery storage and digital technology
High-grading by exciting nonstrategic assets
Reducing share of assets under development from 30% to 10%
[Video Footage] The box on the right, has a header.
[Text Displays] Leveraging trading and technology to capture value
[Video Footage] Below the header is an image with three regions on a world map.
[Text Displays]
Americas. Europe. Asia Pacific.
[Video Footage]
The regions have specific countries highlighted in yellow and coloured dots or squares inside the countries. To the left of the image of the regions, a legend with a title, a small yellow square, a light green dot, a blue dot, a red dot and a dark green dot explaining what the symbol represent.
[Text Displays]
Positions
Power and gas trading presence
Gas [ILLEGIBLE] generation
Battery energy storage systems
[ILLEGIBLE] power plant (VPP)
Renewables [ILLEGIBLE]
[Video Footage]
Below the image of the three regions on the world map, two text boxes providing additional information
[Text Displays]
7 GW of flex and storage capacity under management
~300 TWh power & ~650 TWh pipeline gas sales in 2024
[Video Footage] Below them symbols inside grey arrows all pointing to the right. Each symbol has a text box explaining what it represents.
[Text Displays]
Gas. Flexible generation. Renewable generation. Storage. Firm power. Customers.
[Video Footage] Below the arrows a text box clarifying what they represent.
[Text Displays]
Trading & Optimisation
Wael Sawan
Power remains the most rapidly decarbonising part of the energy system and as such, it plays an important role in our efforts to deliver more value with less emissions. Since Capital Markets Day 2023, we've been driving a strategic shift in this business to better position ourselves for success. We've learned a lot and we therefore have set ourselves a target to increase ROACE from 3 percent in 2024 today to around 10 percent by the end of the decade. So, how are we going to deliver this? We have three levers. First, we are pivoting our portfolio away from assets with infrastructure returns and more towards assets that support our trading strategies. This means we will prioritise investments in flexible generation such as gas-fired power, large-scale batteries, and digital technologies. These are critical for our trading teams to manage risk and capture value in a system which is expected to be more unpredictable as the share of supply from renewables grows. We are already taking steps in that direction as mentioned with the recently completed acquisition of the Rhode Island CCGT
[Video Footage] The shot changes to show only the slide on the screen.
Wael Sawan
…but also evidenced through our Rangebank project. This is a 200-megawatt battery energy storage system in Australia, which became operational…
[Video Footage] The shot changes to the split screen with Wael on the left and the slide on the right.
Wael Sawan
… towards the end of last year. With these investments, our total flexible generation and storage capacity under management is about 7 gigawatts today, including positions in key markets such as the UK, the U.S., and Australia. Second, we will continue to high-grade our portfolio, divesting non-strategic assets, like our home energy business in the U.S. and our offshore wind positions in South Korea and the Philippines. We will employ a capital-light business model as we develop our renewable generation portfolio, making use of project financing where it makes sense and working with partners. This will enable us to maximise the value of our existing platforms. And lastly, given our rigorous focus on capital discipline, we will maintain a measured approach to growth to increase the share of productive capital. For 2030, we are setting a ceiling for capital employed in power of around 15 billion dollars. Whether we achieve that ceiling depends on returns and capital allocation choices which we will make between both power and low-carbon options. Irrespective of the quantum, our portfolio will look different as we reallocate capital to where we can generate higher returns, increasing the share of trading and flexible assets to about 80 percent by 2030 compared with around 50 percent today. A business model best described as trading-led, asset-backed.
[Video Footage] A new slide appears on the split screen. The slide focuses on Demand driven investment into low carbon options underpinned by trading.
[Text Displays]
Downstream and Renewables & Energy Solutions
Demand driven investment into low carbon options underpinned by trading
[Video Footage] Below the main title are two boxes with a bar chart on the left and a graphic of the world map on the right. The bar chart has a header.
[Text Displays] Focused capital employed to develop low carbon options
[Video Footage] The y axis has numbers ranging from 0 to 20 in increments of 5. A the top a text box explaining what it represents.
[Text Displays] 0, 5, 10, 15, 20 – Capital employed ($ billion)
[Video Footage] employed has a footnote.
[Text Displays] LCF reported within the Marketing segment; includes Renewable Natural Gas. CCS and hydrogen reported within the R&ES segment.
[Video Footage] The x axis has years and year periods that the bars represent.
[Text Displays] 2023, 2024, 2025-2027, 2028-2030.
[Video Footage] The bar chart has 4 bars segmented in green and yellow. The bars grow exponentially. The last two bars have fading top edges. A grey line trending upward above the bars, from which three arrows point down to the top edges of the last three bars. A vertical double-headed arrow to the right of the last bar expands between just above number 5 and below number 15 on the x axis. A text box explains what it represents.
[Text Displays] Capital allocation choices
[Video Footage] Inside the chart, inside and above the areas delimited by the double-headed arrow, two text boxes clarify what they represent
[Text Displays]
HEFA on-site construction pause
Adjusting to market realities
[Video Footage] Below and to the right side of the bar chart, a legend with three small squares, one yellow, one green and one grey, explaining what the colours represent
[Text Displays]
Low carbon fuels. CCS & Hydrogen. [ILLEGIBLE] as of CMD’23
[Video Footage] To the right of the box, a graphic of the world map. The map has a header.
[Text Displays] Low carbon fuels: leveraging trading and supply and our assets to capture value and help customers decarbonised
[Video Footage] Certain locations on the map are highlighted yellow, have green dots inside. Black arrows originating from the highlighted regions carry the names of the regions they point towards. The first arrow points from North America to the UK.
[Text Displays]
UK
[Video Footage] The second arrow points from North America to Europe.
[Text Displays]
Europe
[Video Footage] The third arrow points from South America to North America.
[Text Displays]
North America
[Video Footage] The fourth arrow points from South America to Europe.
[Text Displays]
Europe
[Video Footage] The second arrow points from Indonesia to Europe.
[Text Displays]
Europe
[Video Footage] The second arrow points from China to North America.
[Text Displays]
North America
[Video Footage] To the left side of the world map a legend with a title, a small yellow square and a green dot, explaining what they represent.
[Text Displays]
Positions
Significant trading presence
LCF assets / 2P long/term agreements
[Video Footage] agreements has an asterisk to clarify its meaning
[Text Displays] One icon per country (region in USA/Canada) not location
[Video Footage] To the right side of the world map four text boxes providing additional information.
[Text Displays]
~180km3 of blending & storage capacity in N. America ~370 km3 in EU
Feedstock supply & product offtake position in Asia
Nature energy: largest producer of biomethane in Europe
[ILLEGIBLE]: leading second generation ethanol (E2G) producer
[Video Footage] Below the world map, A text box with three statements.
[Text Displays]
A leading trader & supplier of sustainable aviation fuel
>10 billion litres of low carbon fuels traded
10x more low carbon fuels sold than produced
Wael Sawan
In addition to our Power business, our targeted areas of focus in low-carbon options are within low-carbon fuels, CCS, and hydrogen. These are essential solutions for sectors that cannot easily electrify, such as aviation and industry. We're allocating up to 5 percent of group capital employed to develop these growth options, providing resilience in the context of the energy transition. They represent our option set for the future. For the future energy system and align with areas where we have competitive strengths. Let's look at low-carbon fuels first. Despite encouraging developments and green shoots in certain parts of the biofuels market, the fundamentals look challenged through a large part of this decade. This in part contributed to our decision to temporarily stop on-site construction at our HEFA facility in Rotterdam. However, our longer-term outlook remains positive. We want to build a profitable low-carbon fuels business for the future, and we will do this by leveraging our trading and optimisation capabilities to grow sales and secure sustainable feedstocks. And we're starting from a strong position today. In 2024, we traded over 10 billion litres of low-carbon fuels and sold 10 times more than what we produced. In the same year, Shell also became one of the world's largest traders and suppliers of sustainable aviation fuel, with close to 20 percent of the total sales in North America and Europe. This was delivered due to our regulatory expertise, our long-term agreements with producers, and the strength of our customer relationships, together with strategic investments in logistics around key terminals and airports. CCS and hydrogen are different to low-carbon fuels in that these are even more nascent businesses. But, we are making good progress, thanks to our integrated positions and technical capabilities. In addition to helping our customers decarbonise, these low-carbon opportunities will help us meet our own emission reduction targets. They are important levers to support the decarbonisation of our chemicals and products and integrated gas footprint, where most of our Scope 1 and 2 emissions are generated. In the future, we see potential for CCS and hydrogen to support the future of our gas business…
[Video Footage] The shot changes to show only the slide on the screen.
Wael Sawan
…with abated LNG and new fuels such as liquefied synthetic gas all playing an important part in that transition.
[Video Footage] The shot changes to the split screen with Wael on the left and the slide on the right.
Wael Sawan
But, without strong regulatory incentives or carbon pricing mechanisms in place, these solutions are unlikely to become economical. We will, of course, watch demand and be ready to scale up if the right market signals present themselves. Irrespective of how the energy transition unfolds, we see further upside beyond 2030 across these low-carbon areas, but we're not…
[Video Footage] Shot change to a view of the whole stage. Wael at the podium and Sinead at the table to its right. At the back of the stage, three arches in the structure of the wall. Inside each arch is a monitor the size and shape of the arch. On the screen in the centre is the Shell logo and on the two side screens the PowerPoint slide on a white background.
Wael Sawan
…baking this into our plan given the current uncertainty in terms…
[Video Footage] Shot change with Wael at the podium on the left and the slide on the right.
Wael Sawan
…terms of the pace of demand growth and regulatory frameworks.
[Video Footage] A new slide appears on the split screen. The slide is about creating value with Shell technology.
[Text Displays]
Downstream and renewables & energy solutions
Pioneering innovation, an example of creating value with Shell technology
[Video Footage] Below the main title, the slide has three large boxes. The box on the left has a header.
[Text Displays] Proven technology leadership
[Video Footage] Below the header, a photo of a vast lit-up energy plant at dusk. Below the photo, two bullet points.
[Text Displays]
• 45+ years of proprietary gas-to-liquids (GTL) technology
• Producing cleaner fuels, lubricants and chemicals from gas-to-liquids from Pearl GTL
[Video Footage] liquids has a footnote
[Text Displays] 59% less particulate and 26% less NOX (nitrogen oxides) than conventional [ILLEGIBLE] appliances, reductions vary for [ILLEGIBLE] heavy duty & [ILLEGIBLE].

[Video Footage] The box in the middle has a header.
[Text Displays] Expanding value today
[Video Footage] Below the header, a photo of electronic components. Below the photo, two bullet points.
[Text Displays]
• DTL based lubricants enable reliable and efficient AI operations
• Shel immersion cooling fluids improve data centre efficiency by up to 33%2
[Video Footage] The box on the right has a header.
[Text Displays] driving future innovation
[Video Footage] Below the header, a photo of large yellow pipes and tubes. Below the photo, two bullet points.
[Text Displays]
• Exploring liquid synthetic gas and sustainable Aviation fuels’
• Lower carbon products for aviation, shipping, and industry through carbon capture at GTL
Wael Sawan
And, to ensure we can scale up quickly once we do see conducive market signals for low-carbon opportunities, we continue to invest in new technologies and drive continued innovation. We have proven leadership in producing clean fuels. A great example is our proprietary GTL technology, which at Pearl GTL fully integrates the gas value chain across Upstream and Downstream. The products are a pioneering innovation which increase the supply of highly-demanded liquid hydrocarbons but also provide an alternative route for natural gas monetisation. Today, we are expanding the value opportunity from this technology to a new suite of products, including immersion cooling, direct-to-chip cooling, and precision cooling. These new markets include expansion into cooling fluids for data centres, which address the growing power and computing performance demand from AI and high-performance computing applications.
[Video Footage] The shot changes to show only the slide on the screen.
Wael Sawan
Liquid cooling fluids can almost eliminate the need for power-hungry air conditioning systems and dramatically reduce required floor space, making it easier to scale facilities…
[Video Footage] The shot changes to the split screen with Wael on the left and the slide on the right.
Wael Sawan
…reducing total cost of ownership and improving sustainability. And we're not stopping there. Our commercially proven GTL technology provides a flexible pathway to produce biofuels, e-fuels, or a combination of both from a range of synthetic feedstocks, allowing us to develop low-carbon options for the future. We're not new to this space. In 2021, the world's first commercial flight…
[Video Footage] Shot change to a view of the whole stage. Wael at the podium and Sinead at the table to its right. At the back of the stage, three arches in the structure of the wall. Inside each arch is a monitor the size and shape of the arch. On the screen in the centre is the Shell logo and on the two side screens the PowerPoint slide on a white background.
Wael Sawan
…flew from Amsterdam to Madrid fuelled with certified synthetic kerosene produced by Shell…
[Video Footage] Shot change with Wael at the podium on the left and the slide on the right.
Wael Sawan
… from captured carbon and green hydrogen. Our researchers and scientists are working with our assets to extend this demonstrated capability into affordable production at scale. As we're bringing discipline and focus on our competitive strengths in our allocation of capital, we will do exactly the same as we allocate our technology dollars, driving value in both the short term and in the long term…
[Video Footage]
A shot change showing the split screen with Wael on the left and a new slide on the right about investment through energy transition.
[Text Displays]
Shell
Our investment case through the energy transition
[Video Footage]
The slide shows the outline of the Shell logo on the left in yellow with an arcing line between it and three text boxes on the right. Each text box contains a header and three bullet points.
[Video Footage]
The top box is regarding cash flows.
[Text Displays]
Longevity of cash flows underpinned by focused portfolio.
• Price resilient businesses with CFFO growth from focused strategies driving ROACE from 6% in 2024 to around 10% in 2030.
• Growing premium fuels and lubricants support Mobility & Lubricants free cash flow longevity into 2030s.
• High-graded Products portfolio delivering top quartile unit margins leveraging Trading.
[Video Footage]
The second text box is regarding value over volume.
[Text Displays]
Value over volume across businesses
• Repositioning chemicals portfolio to unlock value through regional lens, reducing Capital Employed by 20-30.
• Continuing tail portfolio management across Mobility and Lubricants.
• Constraining capital employed and harnessing options across Power, Low Carbon Fuels, CCS and H2 whilst leveraging Trading and technology.
[Video Footage]
The third box regards capital allocation.
[Text Displays]
Disciplined capital allocation.
• Reallocating capital into highest return businesses while maintaining CapEx discipline of ⁓$8 billion p.a. and reducing structural costs by ⁓$3 billion (2023-2028).
• Allocating less than 10% of our Group Capital Employed to power and low carbon options.
• Organic IRR hurdle rates: 10% in R&ES 12%-15% in C&P and Marketing¹.
[Video Footage]
Marketing has a footnote.
[Text Displays]
LCF hurdle rate 12%.
Wael Sawan
So, let me summarise. We will deliver more value from our core Downstream businesses through focus on value, by executing a differentiated strategy, by enhancing our operational performance in terms of OpEx and CapEx spend, and by reallocating capital to where we have conviction in above cost of capital returns. This is a continuation of our journey and these businesses should deliver over 15 billion dollars in CFFO per year on average from 2025 through 2030. This is a 25 percent increase compared to where we were over the past two years. Key to the improvement journey is CapEx discipline, where we will spend 8 billion dollars per year to 2028. We'll invest in line with or better than our IRR hurdle rates of 12 to 15 percent in Downstream and 10 percent in the Renewables and Energy Solutions. We will grow in areas where we have unique advantages and where we see existing high returns among our core businesses. And we will optimise for value in both power and low-carbon solutions, harnessing the optionality that they provide. We are confident that we can achieve this given both the strong progress that we've already made as well as the credible pathways that we have outlined today. And, with that, let's open it up for more questions. Mohammed, come to the stage, please.
[Video Footage] Wael leaves the podium. Mohammed comes on stage and takes the podium to speak. Sinead gets up and leaves the stage.
Sinead Gorman
I'm just going to grab some water.
Mohammed Hamid
All right, thank you, Wael.
[Video Footage] Close up shot of Mohammed at the podium.
Mohammed Hamid
Folks, you know the drill. We'll do it exactly as we did last time. One question each, please. Well, maybe two if we have time.
[Text Displays] Mohammed Hamid – EVP IR and Strategic Planning, Shell
Mohammed Hamid
And please state your name and firm. Go to this table at the front, please.
[Video Footage] On stage, Wael and Sinead at the table, and Mohammed at the podium points to an audience member.
Josh Stone
Thanks, Mohammed. It's Josh Stone here from UBS. I wanted to ask about your approach to recycling capital inside the organisation, and how you intend to balance M&A and divestments. Because if I look over the last five years, you've been a net seller of assets. So, is that still the intention if you look to the next five years? If I look at your capital employed, it's down over the period. It's down even more if I consider the impairment. So, have we hit the bottom of the capital employed for Shell? Do you think you could actually now start to grow it from here? And, the second question, I wanted to challenge you a little bit on your low-carbon fuel strategy. You said you wanted to wait for the right market signals, maybe to add more capital to that business. But, we had the right market signals five years ago. The rug was pulled from the industry. We're still seeing the fallout from that now. Say the regulation did come back, what would give you the confidence that you wouldn't have the rug pulled from you again? Thanks.
Wael Sawan
Thank you for those, Josh. Let me take the second one first and then invite Sinead to reflect on the first.
[Video Footage] Close up of Wael and Sinead at the table.
Wael Sawan
I think we mentioned it in the speech. We've learnt a lot. The fundamentals are going to be key. And so, when we announced our energy transition 2024 plan, we talked about a critical element being the affordability of these alternative lower carbon fuels, and that the majority of our technology spend is going to bridge that green premium that we currently see. So, there's two elements here. There's what we can continue to do to be able to reduce that premium. And, by the way, that's why we like, for example, low-carbon fuels because as drop-in options, they are the lowest cost alternative for the carbon take add that they bring. But they're still more expensive, which is why they need the regulatory help. So, we need to do our part to reduce costs and we need the regulator to do their part. A lot of this is about how much confidence we have in the policies. There have been policies that have been consistent and we have been working through in multiple regions. So, this is about making bets, more selective bets, in the countries where we see strong fiscal situation, strong appetite by both sides of the aisle, as well as the population to be able to decarbonise, and those will be the opportunities which we will invest in. And so, we will be very, very clear and selective around where those are within the capital constraints that we have set for ourselves.
Sinead Gorman
In terms of your question really around capital employed, and this almost the bottom of it in that sense. The capital employed, it's a little bit of a difficult question to answer. And the reason I say that is if I look at what we're going to see happening, for instance, in Upstream or even LNG, as we get projects online, you'll start to see, of course, depreciation accelerating quite rapidly because they become productive. So, it really isn't stable as it goes through. At the moment, of course, we've got capital employed quite high because as you say, we're building and we have not yet actually delivered LNG Canada being a case in point, and you'll start to see that coming. You could say the same for Sparta coming through. And Gato do Mato will start, of course, building in terms of the capital employed before it comes down. So, it's not a linear situation. Your point in terms of what you're actually saying, you're looking to reduce your capital employed in Chemicals, we are, but we're still investing as you look at it across the rest of the businesses. And, why we've said through by 2030 is we don't want to be rushed on any of this. We want to do it for value. So, that's why there's not a linear answer to that. Of course, I model it out, but I'm very, very confident that it will vary year to year to whatever I expect it to be.
[Video Footage] A view of the stage in full, Mohammed at the podium, Wael and Sinead sitting at the table.
Mohammed Hamid
All right, we have a couple of questions coming in online, so maybe I'll touch on one first. So, we have Irene from Bernstein Société Générale. Two questions.
[Video Footage] Close up shot of Mohammed at the podium.
Mohammed Hamid
First question: "The Chemicals industry has been at the bottom of the cycle for a while. Should that cycle improve and normalise as is generally anticipated? Is there a risk that you are reducing capital employed, perhaps at a low point?" And then, the second question from Irene is: "The capital discipline is impressive, and, with the enhanced share buyback at today's share price, your market cap may be 40 percent smaller by 2030 than today. Is there a risk that Shell is self-liquidating?"
[Video Footage] A view of the stage in full, Mohammed at the podium, Wael and Sinead sitting at the table.
Wael Sawan
Two great questions. Thank you for those, Irene. Let me maybe take the first one, and then if you want to touch on the second one. I think on Chemicals...
[Video Footage] Close up shot of Wael at the table.
Wael Sawan
...important, we again contextualise the sequencing of our journey. Over the past couple of years, the focus has been very much on ensuring that we are doing all the self-help we can. And there are three elements to that. There was cost, capital discipline, and making sure that we ramp up Shell Polymers Monaca to where it is today. We have more to do there, in particular on continuing to create differentiated grades. And we're well on that journey. But that was an important part of the sequencing of the journey. And what we're saying today is we are, in essence, going to look at opportunities to be able to create or unlock more value. We haven't said we are going to sell it nor have we said we're going to take one route or the other. As Sinead just mentioned, we start from a position of wanting to be able to really look at all the opportunities to create the scale and figure out how we will monetise that, whether that is through partnerships with other strategic partners or other options, which we will be considering in the coming months. So, that's, I think, one part of it. I think the second part is to recognise that we are looking to reallocate that capital into high-return opportunities. So, back to this point around the key messages from this Capital Markets Day, we have to be able to be a lot more unemotional about where our capital allocation goes in pursuit of where we have competitive advantage and where we see a long term trajectory for the business, for us to be able to create value. And that's exactly what we're doing in this context.
Sinead Gorman
Indeed.
[Video Footage] A view of the stage in full, Mohammed at the podium, Wael and Sinead sitting at the table.
Sinead Gorman
And thank you, Irene. Yes, capital discipline is certainly alive and well.
[Video Footage] Close up shot of Sinead at the table.
Sinead Gorman
That is across the organisation. And we've got that healthy tension that exists. But, back to almost a comment I made earlier. When I think about the financial framework, when we have that debate, we talk about protecting our dividend first, then looking at the capital we need to invest across the company. We're not in a position where we have to be capital-constrained. We're in a position where we're choosing to be capital-constrained. And, if the businesses keep coming up with more and more ideas, we will keep reviewing those and look at allocating between them. So, I don't feel constrained from that point of view in terms of capital investing in the existing businesses or in actually growing those businesses. In terms of what you're alluding to is the buyback of shares in terms of self-liquidating. Hey, if the price continues as it is, I'll keep doing the capital allocation. We'll keep having that debate and we'll keep buying back our shares. So, yes, we will continue to reduce those and increase the stake of the pie for those shareholders who remain with us. And, of course, at that point in time, at some point in the future, there will be that DPS increase. That is very clear. Remember, we've already done it. We've already done 25 percent over the last couple of years as well.
[Video Footage] A view of the stage in full, Mohammed at the podium, Wael and Sinead sitting at the table.
Wael Sawan
And maybe the only thing I'd add to that, Sinead, as well. Irene, I keep coming back to that vision slide that we had.
[Video Footage] Close up shot of Wael at the table.
Wael Sawan
And the vision is clear. We know the destination we want to get to and we will keep driving towards that destination. A smaller number of shareholders will enjoy some of the glory of the 2035 period, and that's absolutely fine. There'll be much richer than they are today.
Mohammed Hamid
All right, setting the bar high. Okay.
[Video Footage] A view of the stage in full, Wael and Sinead sitting at the table, Mohammed at the podium points to an audience member.
Mohammed Hamid
I have a question over here. Please, [Kelly].
Paul Cheng
Thank you, Paul Cheng, Scotiabank. [INDISCERNIBLE] In the power, you're going to shift to 80 percent on the trading and flexible asset. Some of the utility company, at least in the U.S., and one of your peers saying that CCGT right now is not economic to build and it's cheaper to buy. I don't know whether you agree. And, if that's the case, should we assume that to shift it up, you just go into using the acquisition [INDISCERNIBLE] and also that a lot of the utility company actually believe solar and onshore wind is probably the only asset you could, in the near term, bring to the market due to regulatory constraints and permitting and all that. Wondering that whether you believe in that. And, if that's the case, is it too much saying that shifting 80 percent to just on the flexible asset? The second question. One, to see if you can talk about the role of exploration in the longer haul for you. I think over the past several years that you, guys, have cut back quite a lot, and you also have not done as much of the [INDISCERNIBLE] on the frontier exploration than in the past. And, whether that will remain to be the strategy. And what is that role in replacing your production or reserve? Thank you.
Wael Sawan
Let me maybe address both starting with your second question, Paul.
[Video Footage] Close up shot of Wael and Sinead at the table.
Wael Sawan
I'm not sure of the validity of the point around where we sit compared to others. We're still very strong in our exploration spend. But you're absolutely right, the majority of it is going into Heartland. Around 80 plus percent of where our exploration money goes today is in the Heartland. Not because of philosophical or ideological reasons, much more because that's where we have seen the best return on our exploration spend over the last 20 years. The Wildcats have been much more challenged. And, when you look at the infrastructure that you require to build it with our breakeven price requirements, it's more challenged. But we are absolutely committed for a very long runway for our exploration programmes in the basins where we have a particular competitive advantage. That includes, for example, the Atlantic and in particular, our strength across Brazil, the Gulf of America, the west coast of Africa, as well as key basins like Oman, Malaysia, Kazakhstan, where we have good knowledge. On your first question, I think it's fair to say that we will play to where the longer-term value pools are going to be. You don't see us building new combined cycle gas turbines. The move we made recently was exactly as you described. We bought the 600-megawatt facility in Rhode Island. Remember, we have a strong solar platform here called Savion. And, what's interesting for us with our trading-led, asset-backed strategy is that Savion gives us a very healthy pipeline of solar opportunities, which we hybridise with our top three leading gas trading position here in the U.S. that is underpinned with access to either capacity in CCGT or in the case of Rhode Island, where we own one. It is the hybridisation there that we are looking for with the minimum amount of CapEx we can get. I'll leave that as one point. I think the second point I'd make is it's important to recognise that the power sector plays differently. In Australia, there's a very different dynamic to what we see here and similarly in Europe. So, it is much more of a local power strategy that we are implementing with flex playing up in certain markets more than others. On balance, the 80 percent is what we feel is the appropriate direction and proportion.
[Video Footage] A view of the stage in full, Wael and Sinead sitting at the table, Mohammed at the podium points to an audience member.
Mohammed Hamid
All right, this table over here. Martin?
Martin Russel
Yeah, hello. It's Martin Russell, Morgan Stanley. I will ask you two things. So, if in this discussion, the trading clearly plays a very big role. And, if trading is a sort of 2 to 4 percent uplift to ROACE, then it's probably somewhere as a share of earnings, more than a quarter, less than a third on a sort of ongoing basis, which actually, when you think about it, makes it one of the very largest businesses in all of Shell. So, clearly important. In your vision of Shell by the end of the decade into the 2030s, would you like to see trading to become a larger percentage of the overall earnings mix or will it still by 2030 be broadly that sort of more than a quarter less than a third than what it is today? And, how large can it become, in your view, before it sort of starts to change the nature of the company? Because it's a bit different, of course, than all of the rest of Shell, which is very much centred around physical assets. That's one thing. And the other thing I wanted to ask you is, in a number of locations, like Chemicals and Refining seems very integrated. And, in your effort to sort of restructure Chemicals, shrink the capital employed, are there certain constraints where you might want to keep the Refining but not the Chemicals? And, what constraint does that put on you in terms of the ability to restructure Chemicals?
Wael Sawan
Do you want to touch on that second question, Sinead? I'll take the first.
Sinead Gorman
Sure, yeah. You're absolutely spot on. In many places, we have integrated sites…
[Video Footage] Close up shot of Sinead at the table.
Sinead Gorman
and you can see that whether that's in The Netherlands or we can keep going through the different locations. You're correct that we look at them as two different businesses and then look at the value that we create because of that integration. And that's why we talked about the energy and chemicals [parks] in the past as well. So, is it adding a constraint in terms of what [INDISCERNIBLE] will look at as she moves her business? She's looking at that across the different areas to say, where would I be disadvantaged if I were to separate these. But, fundamentally, no, we can put in place long-term contracts, we can put in place different agreements. And that's exactly what we're doing is looking at where are there interdependencies, where is there value created because of that, and how long can you do that. We have it in different divestments that we do, whether it's in Singapore, of course. We continue to have a long-term relationship with Singapore in terms of either supply or offtake. So, that's part of how we typically do these. And, of course, what we're talking about is in particular in the U.S. looking at strategic partnerships. So, we see the ability to actually blend them together.
Wael Sawan
Yeah, thanks, Sinead.
[Video Footage] A view of the stage in full, Mohammed at the podium, Wael and Sinead sitting at the table.
Wael Sawan
More than a couple of points. I mean, I think maybe firstly, the philosophy of how we see trading and optimisation. We definitely do not see it as a business, we see it as a capability, a differentiated capability. And I just want to emphasise that because it's a capability that indeed is unified under one umbrella in the way we've structured the company. But that's to be able to really perfect risk management and put the right controls around it in service of different business outcomes. But trading and optimisation fundamentally differs in a place like crude…
[Video Footage] Close up shot of Wael at the table.
Wael Sawan
…or products where we are working on commodities and where we are essentially creating flow versus LNG, where it is central to integrated value chains with our customers. To a place like low-carbon fuels where the 10 to 1 where we sell ten times more biofuels litres than we actually produce. Means it is much more of a trading-led, asset-backed strategy. One of the refinements that we have brought today is a lot of those low-carbon options will be moving more towards that trading-led, asset-backed. So, we don't start from a position of constraints because we also recognise that each of these different businesses will have different market fundamentals at any one point in time, but we do not want to get into trading for the sake of trading. This is as much of an optimisation game around the assets and the value chain that we have with selective trading around that, because of the insights we get with the broad portfolio we have.
[Video Footage] A view of the stage in full, Wael and Sinead sitting at the table, Mohammed at the podium points to an audience member.
Mohammed Hamid
Let's just stay here on this table. Can we get Giacomo mic, please?
Giacomo Romeo
Thank you. Giacomo Romeo, Jefferies. First question. You highlighted how you are one of the largest offtaker of U.S. LNG and this creates a natural position when it comes to [nat] U.S. gas. How comfortable you are with keeping that position, especially as we go into a material ramp-up of LNG in the U.S. and increase in demand? Second question. You highlighted a lot of changes in the DSR organisation and portfolios in terms of where your capital employed and cost reductions. What are the key pushbacks you're getting from the organisation as you change your investments and your cost structure in these areas?
Wael Sawan
Thank you, Giacomo. Let me take the second one first and then invite Sinead to reflect on U.S. natural gas.
[Video Footage] Close up shot of Wael and Sinead at the table.
Wael Sawan
I said earlier, the last couple of years, it's tough when you have essentially moved the direction of the company towards this real sort of focus on the destination that we're going to with a very strong value lens. And, I would say in the early days, there was questions around, "Is this the right direction to go?" I'd say over the last year, I've seen a significant shift in momentum. Of course, success in the direction as exemplified by out delivering on plans, by being able to meet promises, by seeing the share price strengthen, by seeing the net debt continue to go down. That's created belief. We were talking earlier on the side and somebody said, "You can be sure of Shell." It does bring out pride in people. It does bring out a commitment to the pathway we've set forward. It brings out confidence in our people. People at Shell want to remember what it is like to be number one again, what it's like to win. And I think if I would just reflect on two to three weeks ago when we announced the vision and the direction, the overwhelming positive response we have had for that, maybe the strongest that we have experienced in any of our webcasts, at least in recent memory, tells me that we have the organisation fully behind us. That doesn't mean, by the way, it gets easier, but it does mean that we have the commitment and the passion of the organisation. And that's all I can ask for.
Sinead Gorman
Yeah, in terms of being the largest U.S. offtaker of LNG, indeed, it plays into our overall portfolio balance. And this is something where we get a lovely piece of work between Peter on the Upstream side and, of course, Cedric on the Integrated Gas side. So, what we hopefully showed you earlier today is the balance in our portfolio and showed the Brent focus in terms of sales and the exposure that we have in terms of that. So, we have Henry Hub exposure of course, through the associated gas that Peter has through his Deepwater positions, et cetera. And, we have, of course, Cedric trying to balance across the overall portfolio. What's really important for us is that we're not just balancing it in terms of one of their portfolios. So, it's not just the Integrated Gas position, it's about across the whole of Shell. And that's where our trading capability comes into play because they can see what Peter and the Upstream team are producing. They can see, of course, what Cedric has as well and be able to take that with the third-party sales. And that's what gives us the confidence to continue to actually have that position.
[Video Footage] A view of the stage in full, Mohammed at the podium, Wael and Sinead sitting at the table.
Mohammed Hamid
All right. I'm going to really make you earn your money by asking some tough questions. Actually, alludes a bit to [Michaela's] question earlier on what we would be willing to do.
[Video Footage] Close up shot of Mohammed at the podium.
Mohammed Hamid
So, [Anish Kapadia] at [Policy Advisors] asked the question. "Some segments like Chemicals, LNG infrastructure, and marketing trade at an eight to 12 times EBITDA versus Shell's trading multiple of close to four times. Will you look at spin-offs or other inorganic structures to unlock value?"
[Video Footage] A view of the stage in full, Mohammed at the podium, Wael and Sinead sitting at the table.
Wael Sawan
Do you want to address?
Sinead Gorman
Sure. Look, where we start from, I think it's fair to say, is a position of just looking at realising value on everything that we do. What we're very much focused on…
[Video Footage] Close up shot of Sinead at the table.
Sinead Gorman
is in terms of ensuring that we really get the value out of each of our underlying businesses, and hopefully, that's what we've talked you through. You can see what we're doing on Power. We can see what we're doing on Low Carbon driving the businesses that are doing very well at the moment, the Upstream and Integrated Gas to go harder, to go further, to deliver more than what they've promised at the end of the day. But what is also clear is that at the end of this, if we cannot extract the value, we will look at any opportunity to extract value. And, hopefully, you can see that in discussions, whether we're the natural owner or not of Chemicals. We look at partnerships. We've talked about specific assets, whether that's the UK and moving over to North Sea after decades and moving to a JV structure, whether it's Singapore, et cetera. So, we do look at each and every one of these, and we don't rule out any option as we go through. But, what's really important for us is that the sequencing is right. For our shareholders to actually get value, we have to sequence this properly. And, what we're making sure we do is we're delivering very clearly on these underlying businesses. We're turning them around, we're making sure that we get the maximum out of the performance, and we'll keep doing that. That's where it stands.
[Video Footage] A view of the stage in full, Wael and Sinead sitting at the table, Mohammed at the podium points to an audience member.
Mohammed Hamid
Okay, back to the room. Lucas at the back, please.
Lucas Herrmann
Thanks very much. Lucas Herrmann at BNP Paribas. A couple
[in my mind]. And I think they both pertain to LNG and one other, which actually is just a clarification. You talked about the sensitivity by the way to Brent in the Integrated Gas business in one point. It looks like about 1.5 billion dollars. Historically, that's been near a 2-2.2. Is there a reason for the shift you've just excluded GTL or is that just a function of portfolio? But that aside, what I wanted to ask, two, forgive me. The first is I'm just wondering whether when you talk about trading, in particular in the Integrated Gas business, you end up doing yourself a disservice because an element of this is we buy from Oman, I'm going to just say 10 percent oil. We sell to whoever, JERA, a 13 percent oil. That spread, which is very raisable, when you talk trading, is that spread included? I mean, you optimise on top of that. So, it's just terminology and how you're using and how we should think about it. And, as I said, whether we end up putting a name to it that perhaps is not that appropriate. And the second thing I wanted to ask. You've been essentially, I would have said short supply in many respects over the last two, three years in LNG as a consequence, not necessarily of contractually being or not having the contract signed for flow, but because Trinidad hasn't performed as expected, Nigeria hasn't performed as expected, Peru hasn't performed as expected. I could go on, but I won't. And so, the volumes available to you have been less than anticipated. As we move forward and the new supply comes in, my question simply is to what extent does the portfolio go long? And, therefore, should I be more concerned about the exposure that the portfolio has to, I'm going to use the term, spot markets? I hope those were clear. And I'm sorry…
Wael Sawan
Very clear. No, not at all, thank you, Lucas. Actually, it may be a great opportunity to bring a different voice into the room. Cedric formally takes over as of 1st of April. But why not create a bit of a burning platform?
Sinead Gorman
That's burning.
Cedric
Thanks, Wael, and thanks, Lucas, for the questions. As always, very knowledgeable about our LNG business.
[Video Footage] Close up shot of Cedric standing up, talking into the microphone.
Cedric
In terms of the overall exposure, what you see there is actually the total exposure of both our LNG trading marketing and our asset businesses, including the JVs. So, it will be a little bit different than what we've shown in the past, perhaps in terms of the balance on both the buy and the sell side. And that's why you see that balance in terms of exposures. But, the key message, I think, also compared to the past, is that you can't see that the majority of our exposure in the years ahead, as we see a lot of supply coming into the market, is mainly on the Brent side, on the sales side. And also, that the kind of again, as Sinead also said, if we look at it on an integrated basis and an amount of the short exposure that we have to Henry Hub is perhaps also is less than what it has been in the past. To your second question, what we also show there is our exposure to JKM and other global gas prices, which is by proportion a lot lower. And that has to do with the fact that actually if you look through, let's say '28, '29, we're quite well sold in terms of our sales position. And so, we're not going to be very exposed into that timeframe in terms of spot prices. Beyond as we look out past 2030, we have the optionality to see, okay, what do we do with our sales portfolio and how much do we contract as we continue to see what the dynamics is and to what degree do we actually want to offer more exposure to gas prices versus Brent beyond 2013. But that's the resilience part of the message as well into the next few years up to 2030 that we feel quite confident about the portfolio. Thanks.
[Video Footage] A view of the stage in full, Mohammed at the podium, Wael and Sinead sitting at the table.
Wael Sawan
Thank you, Cedric. And, maybe just to close off on that. Yeah, we've fought hard, Lucas, around how to characterise it. I mean, the trading optimisation.
[Video Footage] Close up shot of Wael at the table.
Wael Sawan
You're right, within LNG, it is very much optimisation-based. We have a whole bunch of sales contracts. We have a whole bunch of offtake agreements. And then, what we do is we lock in the spreads and then we're always optimising against those spreads. And sometimes, of course, we look at where the market is and take small positions here and there. But the strength of the LNG game is the optimisation of what is an unparalleled set of longs and shorts. And, I would hope that as we continue to show and you saw the slide where we tried to bring the full visibility of all those supply points, all the demand points, just to show the richness of what has been built over time, and how difficult it is going to be for those who are trying to get into this space to replicate that now.
[Video Footage] A view of the stage in full, Wael and Sinead sitting at the table, Mohammed at the podium points to an audience member.
Mohammed Hamid
On the front table.
Paul Sankey
Thank you. Paul Sankey again. If I read slide 43 correctly, are you saying that you're going to take capital employed in Chemicals to zero? Because that's one way of reading the slide, whereby you would either sell it or write it off? That's question one. Secondly, I know it's very difficult for you to talk about a legal situation but is there any guidance on the dispute with Venture Global, and in terms of when arbitration may yield a result or any ideas you could give us? Thank you.
Wael Sawan
Yeah, very difficult to give too much on the second one.
[Video Footage] Close up shot of Wael at the table.
Wael Sawan
I'll give you the first one, Sinead. We continue to hold on to our position of the [calc] as you're having already delivered. I don't know, 400 plus cargoes. The facility running at or above nameplate capacity and the foundation buyers who created the bankability for that venture not yet getting any cargoes. The legal process is ongoing. We hope to be able to have some readout from the arbitration in the coming months, so hopefully this year. And then, we'll see where that goes.
[Video Footage] A view of the stage in full, Mohammed at the podium, Wael and Sinead sitting at the table.
Sinead Gorman
Yeah, and apologies if the slide wasn't clear, but no, the intention is unlikely to be able to go to…
[Video Footage] Close up shot of Sinead at the table.
Sinead Gorman
…capital employed zero to wish to do so. What's our thought? The reason we didn't put a number out there, Paul, because we'd love to just put some data there if we could. It's because it will be different and we're actually exploring those options. We look at it from a sort of a regional perspective. So, if you look to the east, and what we have with China is basically locally financed, local products being sold with a partner who knows how to build this stuff and manufacture it well. So, that's well suited. You then go to Europe, and what you see, of course, in the Europe sense is actually just a really challenged market. You can see, I mean, I think there was something like five shutdown of different [crackers] shut down or units shut down, not by us but others recently in the last couple of years. What we're looking for, Paul, is very much number one is just make sure we're the most competitive and we're doing pretty well with that, and then looking at whether we want to stay or whether that will be with partners or full exit. You then look to the U.S. and it could be different, whether you go towards the speciality versus the polyethylene. And that's why we haven't given an overall number. But is our intention to sort of write it all off to zero? Absolutely not. That's not the way to do this in the [firm], the value lens or to protect it and why we've given ourselves to 2030 rather than doing shorter. We tend to like shorter targets to make sure we deliver. It's just about where the market is. The market at the moment is fundamentally longer term. Long-term fundamental is great, but short term, pretty challenged. And that's why we want to take a different approach to each of the regions. And that might mean different timing. And that's why I've not given the line of sight as to where it will go to. But thanks for the question.
[Video Footage] A view of the stage in full, Mohammed at the podium, Wael and Sinead sitting at the table.
Mohammed Hamid
All right. Perhaps do one that's coming through online. Alejandro from Santander. Two questions.
[Video Footage] Close up shot of Mohammed at the podium.
Mohammed Hamid
First one, "In M&A, what would be your preference for the upstream business, greenfield areas or more mature basins?" Second question, "Thinking about dividends versus share buybacks. Dividends give a strong message about break even. If the valuation gap narrows, would you reallocate distributions towards more dividends?"
[Video Footage] A view of the stage in full, Mohammed at the podium, Wael and Sinead sitting at the table.
Wael Sawan
Let me take the first one and then if you want to take the second one. Thanks for the questions, Alejandro.
[Video Footage] Close up shot of Wael and Sinead at the table.
Wael Sawan
I wouldn't start with a predisposition one way or the other. Because at the end of the day, this is going to be based on value. And so, the question is if we're going to buy somebody's assets, what is the particular advantage we can bring? Are we able to create value by paying the premium dollar for something that is about to start up? Is it because we have a capability? For example, in the Gulf of America, what we see is our well costs are significantly advantaged compared to peers. Take Sparta as a great example. One of our peers left that asset because it was going to be difficult to make it commercial. We stepped in in partnership with Equinor and fundamentally transformed the opportunity by leveraging an existing host design, a set of infrastructure design on the back of what we've done for Vito and Whale. And, by the way, we got that for nothing, very, very little. Those are opportunities where we can bring competitive strengths to, for example, a greenfield opportunity. But we've also looked at Ursa, which was given before. And there, we are the operator of the asset. There was an opportunity to deepen. We needed to find a price point that was sufficiently attractive for us, and that's what we focused on. And so, we start from a very open-minded pragmatic place with one delivery in mind. Can we actually enhance shareholder value specifically through free cash flow per share accretion?
Sinead Gorman
And, on the second one, indeed, the topic of how you split your distributions, so the form of them is always hotly debated. And, of course, we get varying views across it. What I think is common is everyone is clear. Keep giving more. That's certainly something that unifies all of our investor base. Where are our investor base largely sits and where they're very supportive is that allocation of capital towards share buybacks at this price. And they're very supportive of that particularly here. And therefore, what I'm looking forward to is us having this debate at some point in time where it's not the right value lens that we will shift towards dividends. And what we've said is from our perspective, we will continue to take advantage of that mispricing. We'll continue to buy back those shares. And, those shareholders, as you said very nicely earlier, was who are still with us, we'll be able to take advantage of that. So, absolutely, there's nothing dogmatic about this. That dividend badge share repurchase is good. Far from it. It's just about very much deep logic around value. And therefore, for the moment, the share repurchases make sense. But, yeah, looking forward to having that problem and looking forward to having to reallocate.
[Video Footage] A view of the stage in full, Wael and Sinead sitting at the table, Mohammed at the podium points to an audience member.
Mohammed Hamid
In the back.
Ryan Todd
Yeah, thanks. Ryan Todd at Piper Sandler. Maybe a couple of questions. First, on the structural cost savings, the guidance that you've given over the next few years, it's a little more weighted to the Downstream and Renewable segments. Is that primarily driven by portfolio impacts or can you maybe talk about what the primary drivers of the structural cost savings are there? And then, as you talked about Brazil and Gulf of Mexico or the America, you've got leading positions in both basins. The volume guidance, I think the 23rd is maybe modestly lower in both basins versus current production levels. Should we think of those primarily as basins that you're looking to sustain, or what could be possible drivers of incremental upside that's not in the plan? Is it more likely to be things that you just talked about like Ursa and Equinor, or are there organic opportunities to do more there?
Wael Sawan
Let me touch on the second one and invite Sinead to talk about our structural cost reductions.
[Video Footage] Close up shot of Wael and Sinead at the table.
Wael Sawan
What we are saying is we want to target at least sustainability of that production and where the opportunity arises to grow it. No question, we like both of those basins. We think we are particularly advantaged in both. One indeed as a partner, the other one as an operator. And that's going to depend on both exploration successes as well as in the context of Brazil licence rounds, getting access and so on and so forth. But, just to add a bit more to each of them, what's most attractive in the Gulf of America is we have today 14 outstanding zip codes, hosts that allow us to really go around those areas, and in particular, with an administration that's going to open up further lease sales, allows us to pick up the leases that will hopefully keep those assets full for a long, long time and potentially make some big greenfield discoveries as well. Take Sparta, which is the one that's going to come up soon in the 20K or 20,000 PSI more advanced horizon. The Paleogene is relatively underexplored with great upside. So, now that we have a host that is going to be sitting in that advantaged area, we will take advantage of it and continue to broaden our opportunities for exploration with the hope that we can grow our production. But, what you have here is what's in our resource pool right now rather than trying to bank on something we don't yet have. There are, by the way, a number of tiebacks to our Appomattox platform, to our Perdido platform that are being executed as part of this. I think in Brazil, what is underappreciated is just how massive those fields are. The Tupi field, we will run out of licence on the current basis before we ever run out of resource. So, there it is less about getting access to new resource and more how we support Petrobras in making sure we manage reservoir in the most appropriate way. We have a lot of experience in a place like the Gulf of America, of course, because we have late-life assets. And so, we hope to be able to bring that to supplement Petrobras very deep technical capabilities.
Sinead Gorman
Yeah, in terms of the structural cost savings, we start from a great place where we've sort of delivered 3.1 billion a year early from a 2 to 3 billion target with more to come. So, the way it is outlined in the slide is certainly not meant to indicate more in one area or not. What it's meant to indicate is a huge amount of ambition to continue to deliver, and to hit 5 to 7, and to keep going wherever we can beyond that. But specifically, where is it going to come from next? So, there is an element of portfolio, of course. We've just announced, of course, the SPDC completion. So, that's on the Upstream side in Peter's portfolio. We've also, of course, commented earlier that we hope to close in terms of the Singapore divestment in Machteld’s portfolio. Both of those will have OpEx savings that will play out, of course, as the year runs through and will be sustainable beyond that. But, beyond that, what are we seeing? Downstream is hitting this hard. They are very much focused on changing their way of working in everything they do, whether it's the mobility business, looking at just costs in general in terms of inventory, where they're sourcing it from, how much they hold. Looking at in terms of where they spend on advertising, are they getting bang for the buck from it or not? If they don't, they don't do it. And that's what David's focused on. And I can keep going through each of the businesses. When you look to the refineries, to the chemicals businesses, what those actual GMs or general managers are looking at is how do they make their business more resilient and cost-competitive. And, we had a lovely example, for instance, in terms of every time we take any of these plants down, the cost to get them back up again, of course, is painful. So, when you have storms, et cetera, it costs us a lot of money. And Norco did a brilliant job of ensuring that it was up and running, that it stayed there, that it didn't have to take things down, and it had it through resilience on power. And that meant that not only were they the only ones actually producing when everyone else was dying, they reduced the cost that everyone else was seeing to bring it back up. So, this is not about cutting costs unilaterally, this is about actually, in some cases, spending more money because you're going to generate more value. So, you're going to start seeing a bit more of a mix of that. And we look forward to sharing more examples. But I am very confident it's much more of a move away from divestments and more towards actually the underlying running of this company.
[Video Footage] A view of the stage in full, Mohammed at the podium, Wael and Sinead sitting at the table.
Mohammed Hamid
All right, we have five minutes or so left. So, let's make this the last question. Wael, perhaps when we're done answering that, if you could come up and say a few words to close this out? By the way, for those of you who are joining us for lunch here…
Mohammed Hamid
…back of your lanyards, there's a table number. So, if you could help us by sitting at that table, that would be much appreciated.
[Video Footage] Close up shot of Mohammed at the podium.
Mohammed Hamid
All right, the unenviable task of who is the final question. Biraj, you're right in front of me. So, I'll give it to you.
[Video Footage] A view of the stage in full, Wael and Sinead sitting at the table, Mohammed at the podium points to an audience member.
Biraj
Hi, thanks for taking the question. It's Biraj, RBC. It's a specific one on mobility. So, the kind of slide you put forward, you show a 50 percent increase in the gross margin in the last five years. And then, going forward, it's underlying increase in the gross margin in absolute terms. But, if I look at the last five years in terms of kind of bottom line, that gross margin improvement doesn't look like it's come through in the net income number at least. I know volumes are down a bit, but it doesn't look like the volumes explained the story. So, could you just help me understand the gap between gross margin and net margin and why that would be different going forward?
Wael Sawan
Thanks, [INDISCERNIBLE]. Well, it's great to again put one of our colleagues on the spot…
[Video Footage] Close up shot of Wael at the table.
Wael Sawan
…David, because he will be delivering that uptick. David.
David
Thanks very much for the question.
[Video Footage] A view of the stage in full, Mohammed at the podium, Wael and Sinead sitting at the table. Wael walks to the podium.
David
Thanks, Wael. So, I mean, the story over the last two years at least has been that the gross margin you've seen has grown over 10 percent.
[Video Footage] Close up shot of David standing up, talking into the microphone.
David
And that's translated into a 20 percent earnings increase last year. So, it's starting to come through as we're putting into effect the strategy that we started about a year ago, excuse me, which is focusing on a much more disciplined way in high grading the portfolio, focusing on our route to market and our cost base, as well as Sinead have outlined and also on our premium products. So, within that two-year time frame, we've actually grown our premium volume by over 10 percent and are growing our premium margin by over 35 percent. So, I think what we're seeing now is that translation of that gross margin growth coming through to earnings with the 20 percent that we saw last year and with the actions that we have in place. I'm pretty confident that we're going to continue to see that drop to the bottom line. Thank you.
[Video Footage] A view of the stage in full, Wael at the podium, Mohammed and Sinead sitting at the table.
Wael Sawan
Thank you very much, David. We've been wearing David out and losing his voice. Sorry, David. Look, before I close off…
[Video Footage] Close up shot of Wael at the podium.
Wael Sawan
…just to maybe take the opportunity to make a couple of introductions so that in the break you can meet up with some of the new members that maybe you haven't met. So, maybe ask Peter firstly, if you could just stand up for a second.
[Video Footage] A view of the stage in full, Wael at the podium, Mohammed and Sinead sitting at the table.
Wael Sawan
Peter Costello will be running our Upstream business as of the 1st of April, has been running our conventional oil and gas business, and is one of the strong BG, ex-BG folks who joined the company and continues to be with us.
[Video Footage] Shot of Peter in the audience. He stands up and sits back down.
Wael Sawan
So, please look up, Peter, if you want to dive into the Upstream business.
[Video Footage] A view of the stage in full, Wael at the podium, Mohammed and Sinead sitting at the table.
Wael Sawan
Machteld, who is taking over as the DSR president, has been running our Chemicals and Products business and before that was leading our Lubricants business.
[Video Footage] Shot of Machteld in the audience. She stands up and looks around.
Wael Sawan
So, all this portfolio is very familiar to her. And a big part of her role will be to be able to deliver the turnaround we're talking, which we are well progressed on. So, please look to Machteld if you have any questions in that space. Cedric, I think we have already asked to say a few words. You know Cedric from his integrated gas rule…
[Video Footage] A view of the stage in full, Wael at the podium, Mohammed and Sinead sitting at the table.
Wael Sawan
…and he will move in as president of Integrated Gas, again, on the 1st of April.
[Video Footage] Shot of Cedric in the audience. He stands up and nods.
[Video Footage] A view of the stage in full, Wael at the podium, Mohammed and Sinead sitting at the table.
Wael Sawan
David, you have just been introduced to, so you know, and maybe Colette, if I can invite you. Colette, she was running the Gulf of America as vice president as part of the delayering.
[Video Footage] Shot of Colette in the audience. She stands up and nods.
Wael Sawan
Gulf of America will move to report straight into Peter. And so, Colette will be able to share with you all our plans for the Gulf of America, but also…
[Video Footage] A view of the stage in full, Wael at the podium, Mohammed and Sinead sitting at the table.
Wael Sawan
…bring to life some of the aspects of the cultural journey that we have been going on, and some of the improvements that you saw on the chart. So, please make sure that you ask her any questions you have. Let me close off by saying a few words.
[Video Footage] Close up shot of Wael at the podium.
Wael Sawan
Firstly, to all colleagues who have dialled in online, thank you for your patience. I can imagine it's tough three hours to be watching on a screen, but particularly for colleagues around the tables here. Thank you very much for making it. And, what a difference two or just under two years makes. It was a big question, I think, around whether this management team, whether this company could live up to the promises we have made. And, if there's one thing I really wanted you to go away with was the message in the video, “You can be sure of Shell.” We are committed to delivering what we said we're going to do. We don't take these commitments lightly. We recognise the credibility of our colleagues. Our credibility as a management team sits on our ability to be able to meet the promises we have made. And so, you will see us working our backsides to be able to make sure that we deliver on what we have said we're going to do. We also have momentum. There is something around an internal catalyst that we see at the moment that we want to try to unlock. So, our job is not just to deliver the plan, our job is to be able to inspire our troops to be able to do even more. And it's within our reach to do that. We have unbelievably capable people, terrific businesses. And, with momentum and confidence, we can do a lot more. So, that's where our focus is going to be. You've seen us continue to drive the performance agenda. That is a key priority. And performance discipline simplification continues to be at the core of what we want to do and who we want to be as a company. You've heard us today talk about a second key element, portfolio, and how we want to reallocate capital to be able to unlock the full potential of that capital employed in our businesses. And thirdly, we recognise our shareholders have choices both in our sector and outside our sector, and we want to continue to be able to make this an exciting story for you. An investment thesis that has an element of self-help in it. An investment thesis that shows you competitiveness, shows you resilience, and a company that is moving into its stride irrespective of where the energy transition is going to take us. This is a company that you can truly be sure of. Thank you all for making the time. Thank you for coming in today. I look forward to seeing some of you over the next hour, hour and a half, who are here in the NYSE. Thank you again to those who called in, and I look forward to engaging with many of you, if not all of you, over the coming weeks and months. Thank you, everyone.
[Video Footage] A view of the stage in full, Wael at the podium, Mohammed and Sinead sitting at the table. Wael moves towards the table as Mohammed and Sinead get up from their chairs. The background screens change to three scenes of blue skies an oil rig, a petrol tanker and a gas station.
Capital Market Days
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[Text Displays] Capital Markets Day. March 2025
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#CapitalMarketsDay.
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