Hands of children with water

Improving responses to AIDS (2005)

Our scenarios work is also useful for advising public bodies, institutions and governments across a range of sectors, as it draws together expertise from a number of disciplines. This is also true of community health, mainly in developing countries.

In Africa, drawing on experience gained through our operations in sub-Saharan African countries, where HIV/AIDS is a major health concern, we worked with UNAIDS to develop scenarios for ways in which the disease could spread in future. 

While the number of new cases of HIV/AIDS may be falling,1.8 million people were newly infected in this region in 2009 alone. The United Nations drew on Shell’s approach to scenarios to devise three versions of the future that explored the consequences of different government actions. 

These scenarios helped to guide the leaders’ response to the epidemic and to work out which response to the crisis would create the best outcome for Africa and the rest of the world by 2025. This work also helped the UN and other bodies to identify the actions required to respond appropriately to different circumstances.

Aids in Africa: Three scenarios to 2025