The Energy Transformation Scenarios
The world remains turbulent and full of uncertainties, but the current crises may be a trigger for faster change. Choices today will shape the future global landscape and the energy system for decades to come. In all three of our new scenarios the energy system is transformed, the issue is speed.
Recovery, resilience and transformation
The COVID-19 pandemic has generated significant turning points, with shifts across almost all societies and economies. It has exposed tensions and weaknesses in the global systems – but also shifted policy and behaviour in ways that open new possibilities for the future.
There will be different recovery objectives at the front of people’s minds – the recovery of economic strength, the recovery of a sense of security and the recovery of a sense of well-being. These different objectives form the driving forces behind our new scenarios. People will be seeking all of these to some extent – wealth, security and health. But what they choose to prioritise may differ.
Over time, attention will turn from short-term recovery to long-term resilience, the capacity to survive, adapt and grow in the face of change and uncertainty. The current crisis may provide a window of opportunity for the deep changes distinct to transformative resilience – the ability to transition deeply to thrive in new circumstances.
Three new scenarios extend across the century and consider the pace of energy transitions and the impact on the climate.
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Shell has been a pioneer in developing scenarios to explore the future and deepen its strategic thinking for almost 50 years.
COVID-19 is changing the world in significant ways. The Shell Scenarios team has explored the potential impact of the crisis.
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The Scenarios team provides ‘big picture’ insights about how the world is changing – politically, economically, technologically and socially - into sketches to help think about the future.
Shell Scenarios since the 1970s have helped us understand how the world and its energy system could evolve in decades to come.