Shell Scenarios in film

Title:  Navigating an Uncertain Future

Duration: 4:31 minutes

Description: 

Head of Shell Scenarios, Jeremy Bentham and Political Analyst, Geraldine Wessing talk about the potential for modelling possible future scenarios by considering alternative perspectives of current events.

[Background music plays]

Ambient music featuring mallet percussion and synthesised musical effects.

[Graphic displays]

Main heading in red, followed by subheading in grey letters appearing, as if typed, across a white screen:

[Text displays]

NAVIGATING AN UNCERTAIN FUTURE

SHELL SCENARIOS

[Audio]

Whooshing sound effect.

[Graphic displays]

Accelerating zoom shot in to the edge of the last ‘S’ in ‘Scenarios’.

[Video footage]

A man walks out from behind the S and turns to face the camera.

[Jeremy Bentham]

I guess, we all face uncertainty, don’t we?

[Graphic displays]

A red line extends from Jeremy’s finger as he points to the left.

[Jeremy Bentham]

Yet all of us have to make big decisions that can have important consequences, either personal or organisational.

[Graphic displays]

Different coloured lines branch off at right angles from the red line as the camera zooms out, incorporating blocks of colour and graphic icons of silhouettes such as a battery, factory, dollar sign, family, credit cards, etc. Text appears, as if typed, on the left, followed by a line at the bottom of the screen:

[Text displays]

Jeremy Bentham

Head of Shell Scenarios

Scenarios are not predictions of the future but help people explore and learn from possibilities

[Audio]

Popping bubbles sound effect.

[Jeremy Bentham]

But as behavioural economists like Dan Kahneman have pointed out, we tend to be trapped within the limits of our own experience, which leads to all kinds of problems.

[Video footage]

Jeremy speaking to camera, standing to the right of the shot, against a white background.

[Jeremy Bentham]

That’s why, for the last 50 years, Shell has been exploring critical uncertainties through scenarios, asking what-if questions that encourage leaders to stretch their thinking and consider what you might call, alternative memories of the future.

[Graphic displays]

A red, a blue and a purple line appear at the bottom left, extending across the white space next to Jeremy. A box containing the words, ‘What if?’ appears at the point where the lines diverge, each leading to a box with a different icon in: a blue graph, a purple hazard warning sign and a red pile of dollar coins, before continuing on their respective courses. The entire view of the graphics and Jeremy slides to the right, as a new scene of a woman leaning on the side of a desk against a white background slides into place.

[Text displays]

Geraldine Wessing

Political Analyst

[Geraldine Wessing]

For most of us, thinking about the future is quite tricky. That’s because imagining the future and recalling memories both use the same areas of the brain.

[Graphic displays]

Lots of small blue squares appear behind Geraldine as she speaks. The shot pans out and the squares all rise upwards as pixels to form the image of a brain. An orange square appears within the pixels, shrinking down to indicate a particular area of the brain.

[Audio]

Digital processing sound effect.

[Video footage]

Geraldine looks upwards towards the image of the brain.

Close-up shot of her speaking.

[Geraldine Wessing]

Which means that we can only really imagine the future…

[Graphic displays]

A blue car icon travels to the left as Geraldine points her right hand. It rises into an orange box that appears in the form of a thought bubble containing other icons such as a plane, bicycle, smartphone, etc.

[Geraldine Wessing]

As being similar to what we already know from the past.

[Graphic displays]

A blue car icon travels to the right as Geraldine points her left hand. It rises into a similar orange box containing other icons such as a biplane, penny-farthing, rotary phone, etc.

[Geraldine Wessing]

One way of challenging our assumptions is by becoming aware of, and understanding, different perspectives.

[Graphic displays]

The two orange boxes of icons either side of Geraldine shrink and disappear.

[Geraldine Wessing]

For example, on Christmas Eve 1968, the first manned mission to the Moon entered lunar orbit.

[Audio]

American voice in the background saying: “Three, two, one, zero, lift off! We have a lift off!”

[Video footage]

Geraldine holds out her left hand and an animated rocket appears, standing on her palm before taking off. She follows it with her eyes as she speaks.

[Graphic displays]

Animation of the rocket breaking up and a probe tracing a trajectory around the Moon.

[Geraldine Wessing]

Ironically, the mission’s aim was to explore space but that evening, the astronauts took an important picture, not of space, but of Earth.

[Video footage]

Geraldine interacts with a graphic image of a television on the table next to her, which reveals the famous image of the Earth, taken from the surface of the Moon.

[Geraldine Wessing]

And it gave us a totally new perspective of our planet and our future that would go on to inspire generations of environmentalists.

[Video footage]

Close-up of the television screen.

Shot of Geraldine speaking again.

[Geraldine Wessing]

Life Magazine called it one of the most influential images of all time.

[Video footage]

Close-up of Geraldine speaking.

[Geraldine Wessing]

So, by understanding present issues from multiple perspectives, we become better at anticipating alternative future events and trends.

[Graphic displays]

A silhouette profile of a head appears beside Geraldine. Three coloured squares appear inside it then three double-ended arrows appear beside the head, followed by three rotating globe nets, each corresponding to a colour.

[Video footage]

Geraldine gets up and walks out of view.

Shot of Jeremy speaking to camera.

[Background music plays]

Ambient synthesiser chords

[Graphic displays]

A blue line bisects the screen, dividing it into two thirds clear, one third misty.

[Jeremy Bentham]

Some scenarios look at very specific and immediate situations within a short time horizon, like challenges within the Eurozone or Brexit or developments in the South China Sea.

[Graphic displays]

A scale appears along the blue line as Jeremy talks and interacts with the graphic, with icons representing the Eurozone, Brexit and the South China Sea appearing.

[Video footage]

Close-up of Jeremy speaking.

[Jeremy Bentham]

Others look out over decades of the development of the global energy system and its impact on the environment.

[Video footage]

Geraldine enters from the left and stands against a white background, speaking to camera.

[Geraldine Wessing]

We start off thinking big; we think about the major trends that are beyond our control, such as demographic changes, politics, technological progress or climate change.

[Graphic displays]

Red and orange boxes displaying text to indicate the major trends appear next to Geraldine as she mentions and points to each one, before floating around as they are connected by lines.  

[Geraldine Wessing]

And then think about their potential influence on people’s behaviours and attitudes on things like the economy, urbanisation, transport and healthcare.   

[Graphic displays]

More floating connected boxes appear in front of Geraldine, in purple, displaying text to indicate behaviour and attitude, then in blue on her other side to indicate the subjects mentioned.

[Geraldine Wessing]

Then we explore the potential impact these, in turn, may have until we’re able to model very specific scenarios.

[Video footage]

Wider shot of Geraldine tracing a circle with her hands, pushing outwards all the textboxes, many of which are connected by lines to her hands.

Shot zooms out and Geraldine fades to white, revealing Jeremy sitting on a stool in the foreground.

[Jeremy Bentham]

We also try to learn and to stimulate deeper collaboration by publishing material, discussing our thinking extensively and developing scenarios with governments, think tanks and other interested parties. It’s very much an outside–in approach.

[Graphic displays]

Coloured lines extend from the left, surrounding Shell adverts reading: A BETTER LIFE WITH A HEALTHY PLANET, NEW LENS SCENARIOS and NEW LENSES ON FUTURE CITIES.

[Jeremy Bentham]

While our own multidisciplinary team and around 150 other Shell experts might have contributed to some of our large-scope work, up to 300 external experts may also have been involved.

[Graphic displays]

A red line surrounds an emerging network of variously coloured icons containing male and female bust silhouettes. The line recedes and the network expands. A wider shot, which includes Jeremy, allows more icons to be added to the network.

[Jeremy Bentham]

At its heart, scenario work forces decision makers to consider alternative possibilities and reflect on their implications.

[Graphic displays]

A similar animation of extending lines and emerging icons containing various symbols.

[Video footage]

Shots of Jeremy, seated, speaking to camera.

[Jeremy Bentham]

Over the long term, this new scenario mindset can be the most valuable outcome of the work because as well as bringing different understanding and perspectives into a coherent whole, we’re bringing new insights to life in the hearts, minds and actions of key decision makers. That’s why I often refer to two scenario crafts: the analytical and the social.

[Graphic displays]

Two boxes appear as Jeremy gestures, each containing a word, one ‘Analytical’ and the other, ‘Social’. They are interlinked.

I believe, this will help our company and other leaders make wider decisions as we aim to provide people across the world with the energy they need for a decent quality of life, which is also environmentally sustainable.

[Graphic displays]

An expanding rotating globe emerges beside Jeremy and people icons start appearing across it. Various icons such as a flame, wind turbine, petrol pump, oil rig, etc, appear on either side of the globe, connected to it by lines.

[Video footage]

Shots of Jeremy, seated, speaking to camera.

[Jeremy Bentham]

This is a critical economy-wide challenge because everything we do needs energy but it can be achieved. Shell Scenarios are helping us prepare for that future and I hope this approach will also help you prepare for the challenges and uncertainties you might face in the future.

[Audio]

Shell jingle.

[Graphic]

Shell logo centred on a white background.

[Text displays]

© Shell International Limited 2017

Title:  Windows on the future: Modelling Scenarios

Duration: 4:11 minutes

Description: 

Chief Political Analyst, Dr Cho Khong and Senior Energy Adviser, Martin Haigh talk about how scenario modelling requires an understanding of the status quo as a basis for exploring a wider range of possible future outcomes and the importance of accurate data for modelling global scenarios.

[Background music plays]

Plucked electric guitar music.

[Graphic displays]

Main heading in red, followed by subheading in grey letters appearing, as if typed, across a white screen:

[Text displays]

WINDOWS ON THE FUTURE: MODELLING SCENARIOS

SHELL SCENARIOS

[Audio]

Whooshing sound effect.

[Background music plays]

Gentle ambient tones.

[Graphic displays]

Accelerating zoom shot into the middle of the last ‘O’ in ‘Scenarios’.

[Video footage]

A man appears to stand behind the O and uses his hand to wipe away a pink veneer across its centre as he speaks.

[Dr Cho Khong]

When it comes to modelling scenarios, I suppose, we’re like a team of window cleaners, cleaning the windows for our colleagues, who confront a future, which is unknown and uncertain.

[Graphic displays]

Different coloured lines extend from the side of the O as the camera pans to the right, incorporating blocks of colour and graphic icons of silhouettes such as trees, factories, wind turbines, cityscapes, credit cards, moving cars and planes, etc. Dr Khong is eventually revealed on the other side of the graphic.

[Dr Cho Khong]

We set the context, in which they can envisage how their decisions might play out.

[Text displays]

DR CHO KHONG

Chief Political Analyst

[Dr Cho Khong]

Let me be clear: Scenarios are stories about the future but they’re not predictions; they’re about understanding where we are today…

[Video footage]

Close-up of Dr Khong with a few lines of the graphic still extending in the background.

[Dr Cho Khong]

And exploring what could happen in the future…

[Video footage]

Dr Khong reaches down and picks up an animated graphic of a plane, which he then throws off screen.

[Dr Cho Khong]

Stretching our imagination and challenging our perception, bringing into view possibilities that we might not have previously considered or understood.

[Audio]

Plane sound effect.

[Graphic displays]

The plane flies over an emerging graphic of cityscapes then behind Dr Khong, who stands next to an animated futuristic cityscape with monorails and flying cars.

[Video footage]

Dr Khong approaches a desk against a white background then leans against it, speaking to camera.

[Dr Cho Khong]

Pierre Wack the first head of the Shell Scenarios team, called this the gentle art of re-perceiving. Pierre believed that through re-perception, we can pick out elements of the future that have already happened, but whose implications have yet to unfold.

[Video footage]

Dr Khong extends his right arm and a graphic of four gently hovering signs on sticks appears above his hand, reading: LEAVE, STAY, SOCIALISM and CAPITALISM.

[Audio]

Indistinct echoes of shouting.

[Dr Cho Khong]

He called these elements inevitable surprises.

[Graphic displays]

The words ‘INEVITABLE SURPRISES’ appear underneath the signs then the signs shrink and disappear with a whooshing sound effect, followed by the text beneath.

[Dr Cho Khong]

Pierre’s analogy was the Ganges River. When you see heavy monsoon rain at the upper part of the basin, you can anticipate with certainty that the Ganges will flood two days later at Rishikesh, further downriver.

[Graphic displays]

Animation of rainfall over northern India and the route of the Ganges extending south east to the sea, then becoming angular like the lines in the previous graphics, incorporating weather forecast symbols of rain and thunder and a fast-moving clock. It then turns into rising floodwater surrounding green hills, underscored by a scale reading DAY 1 and DAY 2.

[Audio]

A ticking clock and thunder sound effects.

[Video footage]

Close-up of Dr Khong leaning on the desk.

[Graphic displays]

Different coloured numbers and boxes containing numbers emerge from the white background on the left then appear to evaporate.

[Audio]

Whooshing and digital processing sound effects.

[Dr Cho Khong]

And it’s numbers that provide the backbone logic and rigour to these future possibilities.

[Audio]

Whooshing sound effect.

[Background music plays]

Ambient mallet percussion.

[Video footage]

Panning shot to the left, revealing Martin Haigh.

[Text displays]

Martin Haigh

Senior Energy Adviser

[Martin Haigh]

The numbers are critical for understanding what the scenario really means for the energy system. How big is big? Or how fast is fast?

[Video footage]

Wide shot of Martin sitting on a stool against a white background.

[Martin Haigh]

I led the development of our World Energy Model, which we use for our projections of the energy system.

[Video footage]

Martin gestures to the graphic developing to his left.

[Graphic displays]

A rotating globe of interconnected multi-coloured icons such as tractors, wind turbines, smartphones, petrol pumps, raindrops, batteries, etc.

[Text displays]

WORLD ENERGY MODEL

[Martin Haigh]

And as I see it, the most important role of the model is to keep us honest, to make sure our scenario story all adds up consistently.

[Graphic displays]

Coloured lines pass behind the rotating globe and branch off in a way similar to that of the previous animation with coloured blocks and icons this time featuring a battery, sun symbol, family, dollar sign, walking figure, etc.

[Audio]

Whooshing and digital processing sound effects.

[Martin Haigh]

What we seek to achieve is a suitable balance where the model can test the scenario story as well as reflect it.

[Video footage]

Martin interacting with an animated graphic of a pair of scales next to him, which have text hovering under each side: TESTING and REFLECTING. At first the REFLECTING side is the heavier until Martin picks up a weight and places it on the TESTING side and the scales balance.

[Martin Haigh]

For example, if a scenario story involves stronger efficiency drives, the modelling would typically point to lower energy prices as a result, but evidence from the past shows that humans are often wasteful when things are very cheap.

[Video footage]

Martin interacting with an animated graphic of a sliding scale of ‘efficiency’, pushing the marker up higher, beside a cluster of icon blocks, surrounding one of the coloured lines, featuring a petrol pump, calculator, car, battery, etc.

[Audio]

Cash register sound effect.

[Martin Haigh]

Unlike some modelling approaches, we’re not seeking to find the cheapest pathway to a desired outcome. We’re starting from the drivers in place today and want to recognise that there are very many different actors with different interests and different tastes.

[Graphic displays]

Blocks containing animated icons such as a family, a piggy bank, a factory, etc, appear in a square formation similar to the edge of a Monopoly board next to Martin. They slide into the middle space in turn, the others sliding round to fill in the gap.

[Audio]

Sound of money falling into a piggybank.

[Martin Haigh]

And it’s by going into the details that one can sometimes uncover plausible breaks in the trends ahead.

[Video footage]

Martin stands up and walks off screen. 

[Graphic displays]

A rotating globe emerges from the white background, surrounded by a network of interconnected coloured icons.

[Martin Haigh]

Scenarios are about looking for turning points. The world’s energy system is heavily linked and as a result, changes in one part of the world can affect another, particularly through the price mechanism.

[Graphic displays]

The rotating globe graphic shrinks to the left side of the screen as Martin walks into view on the right.

[Martin Haigh]

For example, the German investment in solar panels has lowered the price for everyone and breakthroughs in shale gas in America have affected oil, gas and coal prices as well as trade flows worldwide.

[Graphic displays]

The network of icons disappear from around the globe then Martin gestures to an emerging solar panel icon, flanked by a euro icon before solar panel and euro icons appear all over the globe. A similar sequence takes place featuring flame, oil well, petrol pump and coal bucket icons.

[Background music plays]

Plucked electric guitar music.

[Video footage]

Dr Khong standing against a white background. There is a side unit with vases in the background.

[Dr Cho Khong]

A good storyteller does not challenge you directly but takes you on a narrative journey, following the flow of events and compelling you to listen.

[Graphic displays]

A red line shoots from Dr Khong’s fingertips beginning a similar sequence to those previous, of diverging coloured lines and icons.

[Dr Cho Khong]

Stories make sense of how these events develop and are memorable in a way that dry facts cannot be. Scenarios succeed when managers respond to their message. A compelling story connects with us on an emotional level to make us believe in the scenario.

[Graphic displays]

A purple book flies from Dr Khong’s hand as he gestures, then opens next to him as lines extend from it and icons emerge, a heart being the centre of others, such as a family, jigsaw piece, brain, magnifying glass, etc.

[Dr Cho Khong]

As human beings, we’re therefore more likely to act on its implications. Telling the story is therefore intrinsic to scenarios.

[Audio]

Shell jingle.

[Graphic]

Shell logo centred on a white background.

[Text displays]

© Shell International Limited 2017

Title: Shell News Lens Scenarios

Duration: 1:38 minutes

Description:

Shell’s new lens scenarios, used to build plausible visions of what lies ahead, allowing people to make better choices.

[Background music plays]

Gentle instrumental music with synthesised musical effects. 

[Text displays]

What could the world look like 50 years from now?

[Narrator]

What could the world look like 50 years from now?

[Text displays]

Or even in the year 2100

[Narrator]

Or even in the year 2100. 

[Video footage]

Text centred on a white background zooms into the number, 2100, and then into one of the zeros which depicts the spherical earth with gridlines over the rotating surface of the earth, each square reflecting satellite imagery of the earth’s surface. 

[Narrator]

Will a fully renewable energy system seem realistic? 

[Video footage]

The spherical earth rotates, and a square frame is superimposed and centred over it. The frame contains a still shot of solar panels seen against cloudy blue skies. 

[Narrator]

Will our cities be ultra energy efficient? 

[Video footage]

The spherical earth rotates, and a square frame is superimposed and centred over it. The frame contains panning aerial footage of city streets and buildings. 

[Narrator]

Will natural gas be central to a cleaner energy system? 

[Video footage]

The spherical earth rotates, and a square frame is superimposed and centred over it. The frame contains CGI imagery that is a panning bird’s eye view of a Shell FLNG vessel on the ocean. 

[Narrator]

Will electric and hydrogen powered vehicles fill our streets? 

[Video footage]

The spherical earth rotates, and a square frame is superimposed and centred over it. The frame contains reverse view footage of a driver seated in the driving seat of a very small vehicle. More footage shows the small vehicle emerging from between a line of parked vehicles and pulling into a street against the background of tall buildings.

[Narrator]

We’re at a turning point. Hundreds of millions of people are emerging from poverty, many are moving into cities and new technologies offer the promise of a cleaner energy future. But we’re still reeling from a global economic crisis. The world’s resources of water, energy and food are under stress and CO2 emissions continue to grow alongside demand for energy.

[Video footage]

The spherical earth rotates and zooms in, flattening out to a flat grid where each square reflects satellite imagery of the earth’s surface. Successive footage appears against the gridded background in a transition wipe effect. The successive footage is as follows: a bird’s eye view of a city spread over a valley, cloudy blue skies seen above; panning aerial footage of city streets and buildings; close-up of a lab tech in a lab, wearing a white coat, safety glasses and gloves and holding a test tube at eye level; close-up of a stock exchange data board; panning bird’s eye of symmetrical croplands; aerial still shot of a plant with clouds of smoke suspended over the plant. 

[Narrator]

With all this uncertainty, taking important business and political decisions has never been harder. For 40 years, Shell has used scenarios… 

[Split screen footage]

The grid disappears, and the frame zooms out and splits to show a number of the previous images overlapping one another, the aerial shot of the plant at the centre.

[Text displays]

New Lens Scenarios

[Narrator]

…to build plausible visions of what lies ahead, allowing people to make better choices. 

[Video footage]

A white frame expands from the centre of the previously described split screen footage, and fills the screen, displaying text. The white frame then slightly zooms out and angles down, now seen against a reflective gridlined background. 

[Narrator]

We have developed new lenses that allow us to view shifting landscapes from fresh angles. The lenses help bring this volatile world into sharper focus as we explore two possible scenarios of the future that we have named mountains and oceans. 

[Video footage]

In a transition wipe effect, several icons appear in several of the squares on the flat gridlined background. Several of the squares, including those displaying icons, rise up, appearing as 3D cubes against the gridlined background. The angle shifts to an aerial view of the grid, and the squares of the grid transition to reflect satellite imagery of the earth’s surface, and many of the squares of the grid rise to different levels to be seen in relief against the background, before flattening out once more to display successive footage in a similar transition effect. The successive footage is as follows: bird’s eye view of snow covered mountains below cloudy blue skies; aerial footage of the ocean.

[Narrator]

Download the new lens scenarios to find out more. 

[Graphic]

Previous image dissolves through a white grid to a solid white background on which the Shell Pecten is centred, text displaying below. 

[Text displays]

© Shell International 2013

Title: Shell Scenarios: Exploring the energy future

Duration: 2:17 minutes

[Audio:] 

Background music commences

[Video footage:] 

View along a canal lined with trees and townhouses

Text: The Hague, Netherlands, Shell Scenarios Team Headquarters

[Martin Haigh voice over:] 

“One of the most crucial aspects of our energy modelling…”

[Martin Haigh in vision:]

Martin Haigh alongside a drawing board

Text: Martin Haigh, Senior Energy Advisor, Shell Scenarios Team

“…and scenario quantification is how much energy…”

[Martin Haigh voice over:]

“…in total, is the world going to use…”

[Video footage:]

Close up of Martin Haigh’s hand holding marker pen

[Martin Haigh in vision:]

“…in 2050?”

[Video footage:]

Time lapse of activity in Het Plein, the Square, with statue of William of Orange to right

Text: Shell’s Scenarios Team has brought together experts from an array of disciplines to understand the future of energy.

[Wim Thomas in vision:] 

“The Scenarios Team is a bunch of people with rich imagination, I would say.”

Text: Wim Thomas, Chief Energy Advisor, Shell Scenarios Team

[Adam Newton voice over:]

“We have a lot of very different people, with very different backgrounds…”

[Video footage:]

A group of people stand talking outside an office, followed by a wide view of an employee sitting at a computer in a glass-walled office

[Adam Newton in vision:]

“…thinking about how things connect together, like a really intricate jigsaw puzzle.”

Text: Adam Newton, Project Manager, Shell Scenarios Team

[Adam Newton voice over:]

“We have political scientists, economists, geopolitical experts.”

[Video footage:]

Close up left profile of seated expert, followed by another profile close up of a different expert nodding. View of a third man nodding; the camera changes focus to show he is sitting in front of a whiteboard

[Martin Haigh voice over:] 

“There's lots of people who are producing projections for how the world might evolve.”

[Video footage:]

A group of people sit with their laptops at a large table in a meeting room 

[Wim Thomas voice over:]

“Really we try to simplify the complexity all around us.”

[Video footage:]

Right profile shot of male employee working on a projection; pan to computer screen displaying bar chart

[Jeremy Bentham voice over:] 

“We, in the Scenarios Team, are currently putting…”

[Video footage:]

The group of people at the meeting room table is seen again from a different angle, slight pan

[Jeremy Bentham in vision:]

“…a lot of attention into cities and city development.”

Text: Jeremy Bentham, Head of Shell Scenarios Team

[Video footage:] 

Vehicles move along a busy city centre highway

Text: By current projections, 75% of the world will live in cities by 2050.

[Wim Thomas in vision:]

“A lot of megacities are going to be built…”

[Wim Thomas voice over:]

“…in the coming decades.”

[Video footage]

Time lapse of clouds moving across sunny blue sky as seen from the base of skyscrapers

[Adam Newton voice over:] 

“We know that about two-thirds of the infrastructure for those cities…”

[Adam Newton in vision:]

“…is going to be built between now and 2050. It's an enormous, mind-boggling amount of…”

[Adam Newton voice over:] 

“…infrastructure development going on.”

[Video footage:]

Time lapse of Tokyo cityscape at night with commuters coming and going

[Jeremy Bentham voice over:] 

“We're talking about the equivalent of a new city of a million people every week. That is an incredible demand.”

[Martin Haigh interview]: 

“Most of the world's resources are consumed…”

[Martin Haigh voice over:]

“…by the cities.”

[Video footage:]

Time lapse of cityscape at night with cars moving along multiple lane motorways in foreground

[Adam Newton voice over:]

“What if we could offer a blueprint for a better city? Public transportation, information, energy.”

[Video footage:]

Time lapse in blue filter of tram coming round a corner, a graph effect with rising lines over screen. Blue filter and graph remain, lines continue rising as background changes to board displaying numbers moving across the screen; then to time lapse of cityscape with motorway in the lower foreground

[Adam Newton voice over:]

“We understand demand will rise. We understand that current supplies will struggle to keep pace. So we have to, of course, find ways of bridging the gap between the demand and the supply.”

[Video footage:]

Martin Haigh’s hand draws a rising curve on a graph the flipchart seen earlier. A computer screen displays a graph showing world total primary energy by source. A bar chart showing years displays on a computer screen. Martin Haigh draws a line between the gap in two curves on the flipchart and writes the word ‘Lower’ followed by question marks

[Martin Haigh voicer over:]

“There's a lot of new cities being built in the developing world, so how those cities develop…”

[Video footage:]

Time lapse of city structure being built, construction lift going up and down 

[Martin Haigh in vision:]

“…how compact they are going to be, how the transport infrastructure is going to be laid out, particularly, are going to be absolutely crucial.”

[Jeremy Bentham voice over:] 

“The choices about combined heat and power generation, public mass transport…”

[Video footage:]

A graph showing GDP vs energy demand illustrated by floating bubbles on a computer screen, followed by a key depicting the various forms of energy. Then a close up of a hand-drawn graph and handwritten notes on a piece of paper

[Jeremy Bentham in vision:]

“…and vehicle efficiency, will have a big impact on the future global energy demand.”

[Martin Haigh voice over:]

“Decisions that we take now are going to have a major impact on decades to come.”

[Video footage:]

Martin Haigh walks out onto the atrium landing as the camera pans round and up to show the upper floors and the building’s circular skylight feature

Graphic: Shell Pecten

Text: Learn more at Shell.com

Fade to black

Title: Impact and Influence of Scenarios

Duration: 5:17 minutes

[Tim Harford in vision:]

Caption: Tim Harford, Author, columnist for the Financial Times and Presenter on Radio 4

“So, I'm very interested in bringing together different ideas and I found the scenario process was great for that. You wouldn't just stick in your familiar silo of economics, you'd be talking to people outside your area of expertise and getting different perspectives and that's really enriched my writing.”

[Philip Bobbitt in vision:]

Caption: Herbert Wechsler Professor of Jurisprudence at Columbia University

“I think there's an enormous necessity for this kind of approach because…”

[Philip Bobbitt voice over:]

“…our futures right now are unpredictable.”

[Video footage:]

Aerial view, pan along a city street in a high-rise city

[Philip Bobbitt in vision:]

“Perhaps the worst temptation in scenario planning is to think…”

[Philip Bobbitt voice over:]

“…that it's about the future.”

[Video footage:]

Billboard saying: looking ahead with Hydrogen; in the background another billboard with Shell Pecten

[Philip Bobbitt in vision:]

“It's really not.”

 [Philip Bobbitt voice over:]

“It's really about the present It's about how…”

[Video footage:]

Busy city street, two buses coming towards camera, cyclist moves into shot from camera right

[Philip Bobbit in vision:]

“…you make decisions now.”

[Paul J. H. Schoemaker in vision:]

Caption: Paul J. H. Schoemaker Ph.D, Research Director Mack Center for Technological Innovation, The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania

“Scenario planning can be used for multiple purposes. I think the most common one that I see, and that we participate in, is simply stress testing an existing strategy. Secondly, you can try to come up with new growth options, not the existing strategy, but make the strategy better. And thirdly…”

[Paul J. H. Schoemaker voice over:]

“… you can use it to just educate people in the organisation so you have a framework for better dialogue.”

[Video footage:]

Two engineers, overalls, safety gear, discussing piping at a plant, followed by two further engineers in front of plant in distant background

[Amory Lovins in vision:]

Caption: Amory Lovins, Chairman & Chief Scientist Rocky Mountain Institute

“Shell scenarios are a unique resource for all of us who think about…”

[Amory Lovins voice over:]

“…the energy future.”

[Video footage:]

Wide shot of motorist at petrol station as he inserts the petrol pump nozzle into his car, followed by close up as the nozzle goes in

[Amory Lovins in vision:]

“Like all good scenarios, and indeed many of them built on that model, they're not predictions, they're a vehicle for telling stories.”

[Amory Lovins voice over:]

“But the stories they tell, to change the picture of reality in the minds of the leaders reading them…”

[Video footage:]

Wide of a busy city street in a low-rise city, followed by a hydrogen car from front on as it turns a corner, then another car, emblazoned with Shell Pecten, travelling across camera on a busy city street at night

[Amory Lovins in vision:]

“…are often provocative, fresh, and of course the underlying trick is to choose the axes correctly. That's the hardest part. Once you ask the right questions…”

[Amory Lovins voice over:]

“…the answers tend to become self-evident. I think it's been a vital intellectual contribution to the world of energy. I can't imagine our…”

[Video footage:]

Several mopeds/small motorcycles move across a city street at night, followed by wide shot of a long avenue in a high-rise city, then street level of traffic at night 

[Amory Lovins in vision:]

“…having the progress that we now see in the global energy transformation without this important foundation.”

[Peter Ho in vision:]

Caption: Peter Ho, Senior Advisor, Centre for Strategic Futures and Former Head of Civil Service, Singapore

“Well, Shell has played a very critical role, especially in the early years, in helping…”

[Peter Ho voice over:]

“…the Singapore government develop scenario planning as a basic…”

[Video footage:]

Wide shot of Singapore high rise from street level, then a busy narrow Singapore street of small shops

[Peter Ho in vision:]

“…tool for strategic…”

[Peter Ho voice over:]

“… planning. Without scenario planning, we would not have gone as far as we have come in terms of our…”

[Video footage:]

Boat passes left to right across camera on river, Singapore high seen in background, followed by pan up Singapore building, bus passes across shot

[Peter Ho in vision:]

“…ability and capacity to plan for the future.”

[Koosum Kalyan in vision:]

Caption: Koosum Kalyan, Chairman of Edgomerap Energy and Chairman of the Thabo Mbeki Foundation

“You start from the premise of not what you know...it's what you don't know...and plan for those uncertainties. So, scenarios became part of everybody's planning processes…”

[Koosum Kalyan voice over:]

“…in South Africa. Soon after the Mont Fleur scenarios…”

[Video footage]

Speeded up pan along a South African highway, Table Mountain and Cape Town in the background

[Koosum Kalyan in vision:]

“…trade unions, the NUM, COSATU were using it in their organisations. But what it allowed the government to do, and the people of South Africa, is to think about the future…”

[Koosum Kalyan voice over:]

“…from the same premise. All that Shell wanted to say was that…”

[Video footage:]

African street painting fixed in foreground as camera pans around on street below a hill

[Koosum Kalyan in vision:]

“…we have a tool, and the methodology that we use in scenario planning can be used anywhere in the world.”

[Professor Dr Bjorn Stigson in vision:]

Caption: Professor Dr Bjorn Stigson, Chairman, Stigson & Partners AB

“I think it has been used by a number of companies…”

[Professor Dr Bjorn Stigson voice over:]

“…for complex issues where you need to find a language to talk about things.”

[Video footage:]

People on a worksite with small three-wheeled work vehicles, car moves across street in foreground, followed by people walking in a city street

[Professor Dr Bjorn Stigson in vision:]

“So what Shell started, once upon a time, has spun off a whole industry and you have given us…”

[Professor Dr Bjorn Stigson voice over:]

“…a picture, a story about the future world…”

[Video footage:]

Pan up exterior of high rise glass building

[Professor Dr Bjorn Stigson in vision:]  

“…that is highly relevant for our thinking about the OECD.”

[Pei Minxin in vision:]

Caption: Pei Minxin, Professor of Government, Claremont McKenna College

“The standard of living is rising in the developing world, and with that…”

[Pei Minxin voice over:]

“…the demand for energy will grow as well.”

[Video footage:]

City street, motorcycles and a car travel through shot

[Pei Minxin in vision:]

“So, if there's one word to describe the future of energy…”

[Pei Minxin voice over:]

 “…it's bright, but complex.”

[Video footage:]

Wide time-lapse of London Eye at night as seen from Shell Centre, followed by close up of edge of London Eye with Houses of Parliament in the background

[Pei Minxin in vision:]

“Preparing for different futures does not require upfront investment right away. It requires intellectual preparation.”

[Napier Collyns in vision:]

Caption: Napier Collyns, Co-Founder, Global Business Network

“I think what the scenarios do is to…”

[Napier Colllyns voice over:]

“…make you realise that there will be many unexpected developments.”

[Video footage:]

Wide of low rise city, desert in background, followed by aerial shot of a city on a delta

[Napier Collyns in vision:]

“The one that's obvious today, is the fact…”

[Napier Collyns voice over:]

“…all over the world now we're having shale developments for Berita oil and for natural gas, which has changed the structure of oil and energy developments worldwide.”

[Video footage:]

The City of London high rises seen from the Thames river bank, followed by a pan across the top of a high-rise city with sea in the background, then close up of a man re-fuelling a bus from a Shell pump, then Shell Fuel Cell Bus travelling through a European town, then a low level support bridge over a river with large official buildings in the background, then the Jesus statue above Rio de Janeiro

[Napier Collyns in vision:]

“I think it's essential…”

[Napier Collyns voice over:]

“…that we keep looking for oil and gas, and luckily in the United States, we've found oil and gas unexpectedly.”

[Video footage:]

Cars travelling along an American city street towards camera left, then cars travelling along an American city street to camera right, then further cars travelling in both directions along a city street with a hill in the background

[Napier Collyns in vision:]

“When I say unexpectedly, even then the most interesting scenarios…”

[Napier Collyns voice over:]

“…ten or fifteen years ago, we weren't really thinking…”

[Video footage:]

Sign for Shell Hydrogen Fuel station Ventristoo

[Napier Collyns in vision:]

“…of the kind of ways…”

[Napier Collyns voice over:]

“…we've developed oil and gas since.”

[Video footage:]

Several engineers, overalls, safety gear, at a plant

[Michael Jefferson in vision:]

Caption: Michael Jefferson, Visiting Professor, Department of Economics & International Studies, University of Buckingham

“We are dealing so often with unknowledge...and unforeknowledge.”

[Michael Jefferson voice over:]

“So with that…”

[Video footage:]

Heavy traffic travels in both directions along a wide city avenue, followed by shot of a car travelling left to right across screen, parked cars, police officer, cinema in the background

[Michael Jefferson in vision:]

“…clear idea that we don't know the future, we can't just forecast.”

[Michael Jefferson voice over:]

“We can't create a model, turn a handle.”

[Video footage:]

Pedestrians in a crowded city street, woman with smog mask walks towards camera

[Philip Bobbitt in vision:]

“I think scenario planning is perhaps the most important analytical tool we have, and Shell is...and has been...the most important innovator in that process.”

[Background music fades:]

Graphic: Shell Pecten

Text: ©Shell International 2013

Fade to black

Shell Scenarios - Imagining the future

In 2012, we have our 40th anniversary of Scenarios in Shell.

And it was Pierre Wack, who put this on the map.

That was at a time when a lot of the Western oil companies

were just planning on the basis of more production from the Middle East

with business, as usual, carrying on.

However, Pierre Wack was a very bright man.

And what he pointed to was how what he called "the rapids",

the volatility in the world, would rise

as the Middle Eastern countries decided to nationalise those assets.

We were beginning to sketch up possibilities

of the kind of development that led to OPEC,

which completely changed the energy industry at that time in the 70s.

In the 80s, we were looking forward

and were beginning to see the kinds of political developments

that culminated in the fall of the Soviet Union and the Eastern Bloc.

A lot of people had discounted that Russia might emerge

and move into the world stage.

There were the oil price collapse of the 1980s.

A lot of the conditions were there - with the softening of demand

but the rising supply

were in place for an oil price collapse

that a lot of people weren't ready for and didn't see,

but the Scenarios team had.

In the 90s, there were the forces of globalisation,

market liberalisation and information technology

that were transforming the whole of society.

And, also, we could see environmental pressures building up.

One scenario was about

the real breakthrough and acceleration of China

and the way its development could be transformational.

I think we were ahead of the curve in charting the way

that might have a significant impact on the energy system.

We had a number of other milestones

like bringing sustainable development on the map,

bringing the importance of gas as part of that on the map...

We have explored many other things like disruptive technologies -

what if electric mobility would really take off

and in what form?

When you look from the 2000s,

you begin to see, also, the impact of the demand surge on resources

as prosperity and population boom,

and, also, the constraints on supply that lead to a new tightness,

and on one of the features

in what we now refer to as, "The Era of Volatile Transitions"

over the next decades.

In the shorter medium term, one of the critical questions in the West

is how we're going to emerge from the financial crisis.

Over the very long term,

there's the question as to how we transition

to what we hope would be a more sustainable world.

But one of the big challenges for humanity, for the centuries,

is the question of whether the people of Africa,

the people in developing countries worldwide

are going to be able to enjoy the quality of lifestyles

that many of us in the West have become used to.

Being a global company ourselves,

we really like to understand how that may evolve

and how we can have a meaningful part in that process.