World Energy Model
How much energy will the world use in the future, and what forms will it take? This question lies at the heart of Shell Scenarios’ work. The team has developed the World Energy Model (WEM) to explore how energy demand is evolving in different countries and sectors.
Using a range of data, the team can map out the most significant factors in policy, technology and consumer choice. This model covers all sectors of the economy together with all foreseeable energy technologies. It covers the whole world at a detailed country level running through to the year 2100.
It does this in a dynamic, consistent and holistic framework – meaning that changes in one place can affect others. It’s a useful means of exploring short-term trends as well as how these might evolve into the long-term transformation of the global energy system.
The WEM calculates three principal components around energy: demand, choice and supply. To arrive at these calculations – which are then fed into the model scenarios – the system looks at six key drivers of the energy system: population, economic growth, environmental pressures, technology, resource availability and consumer choices.
It is a complex system that is designed to bring a new degree of depth and clarity to our energy decision-making by providing a range of plausible futures.