Global Supply Model
How can we model the future oil and gas production in a changing world? As the global energy landscape grows ever more complex, the Shell Scenarios team has developed the Global Supply Model (GSM) to build a Shell view of future global production potential.
The role of oil and gas is transforming, but despite the strong growth rate of renewables, oil and gas will remain critical energy sources in the coming decades.
Our Global Supply Model (GSM) tool allows the Shell Scenarios team to explore future oil and gas production potential all the way to the year 2100. Devised by a range of experts from multiple disciplines, this tool allows us to explore key uncertainties in areas such as technology innovation and geopolitical stresses.
The GSM has three main components: resource base definition, marketing and production.
Data is first collated from internal and external sources, then production scenarios are framed considering areas of uncertainty and risk. These include geopolitical shifts and the rise of unconventional supply sources such as shale oil and gas extraction.
Decision-makers can then explore a range of demand signals of possible strategies using these scenarios, an approach that is becoming increasingly important as the global energy landscape grows ever more challenging and complex.