Shell Scenarios energy models

Title:  Windows on the future: Modelling Scenarios

Duration: 4:11 minutes

Description: 

Chief Political Analyst, Dr Cho Khong and Senior Energy Adviser, Martin Haigh talk about how scenario modelling requires an understanding of the status quo as a basis for exploring a wider range of possible future outcomes and the importance of accurate data for modelling global scenarios.

[Background music plays]

Plucked electric guitar music.

[Graphic displays]

Main heading in red, followed by subheading in grey letters appearing, as if typed, across a white screen:

[Text displays]

WINDOWS ON THE FUTURE: MODELLING SCENARIOS

SHELL SCENARIOS

[Audio]

Whooshing sound effect.

[Background music plays]

Gentle ambient tones.

[Graphic displays]

Accelerating zoom shot into the middle of the last ‘O’ in ‘Scenarios’.

[Video footage]

A man appears to stand behind the O and uses his hand to wipe away a pink veneer across its centre as he speaks.

[Dr Cho Khong]

When it comes to modelling scenarios, I suppose, we’re like a team of window cleaners, cleaning the windows for our colleagues, who confront a future, which is unknown and uncertain.

[Graphic displays]

Different coloured lines extend from the side of the O as the camera pans to the right, incorporating blocks of colour and graphic icons of silhouettes such as trees, factories, wind turbines, cityscapes, credit cards, moving cars and planes, etc. Dr Khong is eventually revealed on the other side of the graphic.

[Dr Cho Khong]

We set the context, in which they can envisage how their decisions might play out.

[Text displays]

DR CHO KHONG

Chief Political Analyst

[Dr Cho Khong]

Let me be clear: Scenarios are stories about the future but they’re not predictions; they’re about understanding where we are today…

[Video footage]

Close-up of Dr Khong with a few lines of the graphic still extending in the background.

[Dr Cho Khong]

And exploring what could happen in the future…

[Video footage]

Dr Khong reaches down and picks up an animated graphic of a plane, which he then throws off screen.

[Dr Cho Khong]

Stretching our imagination and challenging our perception, bringing into view possibilities that we might not have previously considered or understood.

[Audio]

Plane sound effect.

[Graphic displays]

The plane flies over an emerging graphic of cityscapes then behind Dr Khong, who stands next to an animated futuristic cityscape with monorails and flying cars.

[Video footage]

Dr Khong approaches a desk against a white background then leans against it, speaking to camera.

[Dr Cho Khong]

Pierre Wack the first head of the Shell Scenarios team, called this the gentle art of re-perceiving. Pierre believed that through re-perception, we can pick out elements of the future that have already happened, but whose implications have yet to unfold.

[Video footage]

Dr Khong extends his right arm and a graphic of four gently hovering signs on sticks appears above his hand, reading: LEAVE, STAY, SOCIALISM and CAPITALISM.

[Audio]

Indistinct echoes of shouting.

[Dr Cho Khong]

He called these elements inevitable surprises.

[Graphic displays]

The words ‘INEVITABLE SURPRISES’ appear underneath the signs then the signs shrink and disappear with a whooshing sound effect, followed by the text beneath.

[Dr Cho Khong]

Pierre’s analogy was the Ganges River. When you see heavy monsoon rain at the upper part of the basin, you can anticipate with certainty that the Ganges will flood two days later at Rishikesh, further downriver.

[Graphic displays]

Animation of rainfall over northern India and the route of the Ganges extending south east to the sea, then becoming angular like the lines in the previous graphics, incorporating weather forecast symbols of rain and thunder and a fast-moving clock. It then turns into rising floodwater surrounding green hills, underscored by a scale reading DAY 1 and DAY 2.

[Audio]

A ticking clock and thunder sound effects.

[Video footage]

Close-up of Dr Khong leaning on the desk.

[Graphic displays]

Different coloured numbers and boxes containing numbers emerge from the white background on the left then appear to evaporate.

[Audio]

Whooshing and digital processing sound effects.

[Dr Cho Khong]

And it’s numbers that provide the backbone logic and rigour to these future possibilities.

[Audio]

Whooshing sound effect.

[Background music plays]

Ambient mallet percussion.

[Video footage]

Panning shot to the left, revealing Martin Haigh.

[Text displays]

Martin Haigh

Senior Energy Adviser

[Martin Haigh]

The numbers are critical for understanding what the scenario really means for the energy system. How big is big? Or how fast is fast?

[Video footage]

Wide shot of Martin sitting on a stool against a white background.

[Martin Haigh]

I led the development of our World Energy Model, which we use for our projections of the energy system.

[Video footage]

Martin gestures to the graphic developing to his left.

[Graphic displays]

A rotating globe of interconnected multi-coloured icons such as tractors, wind turbines, smartphones, petrol pumps, raindrops, batteries, etc.

[Text displays]

WORLD ENERGY MODEL

[Martin Haigh]

And as I see it, the most important role of the model is to keep us honest, to make sure our scenario story all adds up consistently.

[Graphic displays]

Coloured lines pass behind the rotating globe and branch off in a way similar to that of the previous animation with coloured blocks and icons this time featuring a battery, sun symbol, family, dollar sign, walking figure, etc.

[Audio]

Whooshing and digital processing sound effects.

[Martin Haigh]

What we seek to achieve is a suitable balance where the model can test the scenario story as well as reflect it.

[Video footage]

Martin interacting with an animated graphic of a pair of scales next to him, which have text hovering under each side: TESTING and REFLECTING. At first the REFLECTING side is the heavier until Martin picks up a weight and places it on the TESTING side and the scales balance.

[Martin Haigh]

For example, if a scenario story involves stronger efficiency drives, the modelling would typically point to lower energy prices as a result, but evidence from the past shows that humans are often wasteful when things are very cheap.

[Video footage]

Martin interacting with an animated graphic of a sliding scale of ‘efficiency’, pushing the marker up higher, beside a cluster of icon blocks, surrounding one of the coloured lines, featuring a petrol pump, calculator, car, battery, etc.

[Audio]

Cash register sound effect.

[Martin Haigh]

Unlike some modelling approaches, we’re not seeking to find the cheapest pathway to a desired outcome. We’re starting from the drivers in place today and want to recognise that there are very many different actors with different interests and different tastes.

[Graphic displays]

Blocks containing animated icons such as a family, a piggy bank, a factory, etc, appear in a square formation similar to the edge of a Monopoly board next to Martin. They slide into the middle space in turn, the others sliding round to fill in the gap.

[Audio]

Sound of money falling into a piggybank.

[Martin Haigh]

And it’s by going into the details that one can sometimes uncover plausible breaks in the trends ahead.

[Video footage]

Martin stands up and walks off screen. 

[Graphic displays]

A rotating globe emerges from the white background, surrounded by a network of interconnected coloured icons.

[Martin Haigh]

Scenarios are about looking for turning points. The world’s energy system is heavily linked and as a result, changes in one part of the world can affect another, particularly through the price mechanism.

[Graphic displays]

The rotating globe graphic shrinks to the left side of the screen as Martin walks into view on the right.

[Martin Haigh]

For example, the German investment in solar panels has lowered the price for everyone and breakthroughs in shale gas in America have affected oil, gas and coal prices as well as trade flows worldwide.

[Graphic displays]

The network of icons disappear from around the globe then Martin gestures to an emerging solar panel icon, flanked by a euro icon before solar panel and euro icons appear all over the globe. A similar sequence takes place featuring flame, oil well, petrol pump and coal bucket icons.

[Background music plays]

Plucked electric guitar music.

[Video footage]

Dr Khong standing against a white background. There is a side unit with vases in the background.

[Dr Cho Khong]

A good storyteller does not challenge you directly but takes you on a narrative journey, following the flow of events and compelling you to listen.

[Graphic displays]

A red line shoots from Dr Khong’s fingertips beginning a similar sequence to those previous, of diverging coloured lines and icons.

[Dr Cho Khong]

Stories make sense of how these events develop and are memorable in a way that dry facts cannot be. Scenarios succeed when managers respond to their message. A compelling story connects with us on an emotional level to make us believe in the scenario.

[Graphic displays]

A purple book flies from Dr Khong’s hand as he gestures, then opens next to him as lines extend from it and icons emerge, a heart being the centre of others, such as a family, jigsaw piece, brain, magnifying glass, etc.

[Dr Cho Khong]

As human beings, we’re therefore more likely to act on its implications. Telling the story is therefore intrinsic to scenarios.

[Audio]

Shell jingle.

[Graphic]

Shell logo centred on a white background.

[Text displays]

© Shell International Limited 2017