Watch: Sustainable Fuel - A Low-Carbon Solution for Aviation
Though the COVID-19 pandemic has had a significant impact on aviation, it hasn’t changed the reality that the industry must figure out how to fly and emit less. Sustainable aviation fuel holds great promise in helping the aviation industry reduce carbon emissions, but carbon pricing and other policy measures are likely needed to help spur the investment to scale production to meaningful levels, according to Shell’s top climate advisor.
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“The biggest challenges are around scaling up the solutions that we've got,” said David Hone, Chief Climate Adviser for Shell.
Last year, production of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) was about 14 million gallons, just 0.1% of total aviation fuel. To ramp SAF to even 2% of total aviation fuel output would require investment of $10 billion to build 20 new refineries, according to estimates by the International Energy Agency.
“Once you reach the very large scale that aviation operates on it has to be a commercial proposition. And the only way it's going to work commercially is by doing more of it to drive the cost down, so economy of scale, but also potentially by introducing policy measures such as carbon pricing to draw in these fuels and make them compete against fossil fuels,” Hone said in a recent interview with Joel Makower, Editor-in-Chief of Greenbiz.com.
“The driving force isn't really quite there yet. We're just seeing that driving force awakened both in the public's eyes and the customer's eyes but also in the regulator's eyes. It's ultimately the regulators, I think, that will drive this to a sustainable conclusion because they will demand, because their voters requested of them, that the aviation sector be at net-zero emissions,” Hone said.
The Future is Sustainable Fuel
Description:
Joel Makower interviews David Hone on what it will take to scale sustainable aviation fuel to meet the airline industry’s increasing demand for bioenergy.
Title: Expanding the Role of SAF Transcript
Duration: 5:51 minutes
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The Shell™ pecten logo appears, then fades. A three dimensional model of Earth rotates while white silhouettes of planes fly across the globe. On the right side of the screen, a shot of David Hone talking with no audio.
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Flightpath: Navigating the Route to Sustainable Aviation
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This episode
Expanding the role of SAF
{Joel Makower sits onscreen. Facing him, turned away from the camera, is David Hone. The camera alternates between speakers.}
Joel Makower
I’m Joel Makower executive editor at greebiz.com. We’re talking about what will it take to make aviation environmentally sustainable. I’m talking with David Hone the chief climate change advisor at Shell.
When you look at all of the things that need to happen between now and mid century to grow this market for offsets and for sustainable aviation fuels, what are some of the biggest challenges you see?
David Hone
I think the biggest challenges are around scaling up the solutions that we’ve got. but there’s a very big long-term challenge which is ultimately moving aviation to a different technology set. There’s going to have to be significant investment in refining facilities. There are going to have be new technologies. Today is relatively simple hydro processing technology that’s used to convert used oils, vegetable oils and things into aviation fuels. And that’s a scalable option, but I think as we move forward and we look at a large volumes of aviation fuel, there will probably be new technologies as well. For instance, in the aviation sector 0.1 percent of the fuel today is biofuel. And to move that to 50 percent or even a 100 percent by 2050, means multiple refineries will have to be built. And these are very large world scale refineries. Refineries are typically billions of dollars of investment and many years of planning and implementation in construction and the driving force isn’t really quite there yet. We’re just seeing that driving force awake in both public’s eye and customer’s eyes but also In the regulator’s eyes. It’s ultimately the regulators, I think that will drive this to a sustainable conclusion, because they will demand, because their voters requested of them that the aviation sector be at net zero emissions.
Joel Makower
You mentioned bioenergy, I’m not sure that everybody understands what bioenergy refers to. Can you explain what bioenergy means?
David Hone
Bioenergy is the conversion of living bio material, so that could be crops like sugar cane, corn or it could be trees – anything that you can grow; harvesting that and turning it into an energy product, an energy fuel. Now the point about bioenergy is that when it grows, it absorbs carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, so when the fuel is ultimately burned it returns the same CO2 to the atmosphere so it’s a closed loop, zero emission effect on the atmosphere itself and you’re using the energy that is contained within the bio mass and that is what you’re trying to capture.
Joel Makower
What about things like agricultural waste or municipal solid waste, can they become fuels as well?
David Hone
Waste is another source of biomaterial. So for instance most of the oil today used for cooking, be it at home or on an industrial scale in a food processing plant, is derived from vegetable oil so palm oil for instance and others sources like that. The interesting thing is that the scale of food oils is not dissimilar to the scale of aviation fuel. So the total production of food oils today is similar to the total production of jet fuel. It’s a bit lower. So if we could collect even a third of these oils as waste oils or half then you can actually start to think about making significant inroads into the alternative fuel market for aviation. It’s all very well to do this at small scale to test out the processes but once you reach the very large scale that aviation operates on it has to be a commercial proposition. And the only way its going to work commercially is by doing more of it to drive the cost down, so economy of scale, but also potentially by introducing policy measures such as carbon pricing to draw in these fuels and make them compete against fossil fuels.
Joel Makower
So there are billions and billions of dollars of investment needed to make all of this happen. Who’s going to pay for this?
David Hone
It’s important to look at the history of the aviation business to try and think about this. This is a business that has grown over the 20th century from nothing to really a very significant scale. And it’s a business that in the process has fostered change. It was PanAm, in collaboration with Boeing, that developed the 707 and the 747. I think it was PanAm that led with some very big orders that encourage Boeing to build the planes and then Panam developed a business proposition for customers to get them onto the planes to pay Boeing to build them. I think we’ve got to imagine that happening in this transition as well. There’s a little bit of a chicken and egg thing here. So who’s going to step out and make the big order for new fuels? Or who is going to step out and build facilities that manufacture new fuels and offer them into the market? It was famously said at the time that both the CEO of Boeing and PanAm were taking some very big commercial risks when they ventured into the jet age, and I think the same is going to be true with those who venture into the zero emissions age.
Joel Makower
David Hone is the chief climate change advisor for Shell. Thank you, David.
David Hone
Thank you very much.
Ushering in a “Low Emissions Age”
Most SAF today is made from cooking oils and animal fats. Eventually, other feedstocks such as non-food crops, seaweed and algae, and wood byproducts will play a role, Hone said.
“There are going to have to be new technologies. Today it's a relatively simple hydro-processing technology that's used to convert used oils, vegetable oils and things into aviation fuels. And that's a scalable option. But I think as we move forward and we look at very large volumes of aviation fuel, there'll probably be new technologies as well.”
SAF is a low-carbon solution for aviation because it is made from biomass, and when that biomass grows, it absorbs carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. When the fuel is burned, it returns the same carbon to the atmosphere, where it is then absorbed by new biomass. That creates a closed-loop, net-zero-emissions effect on the atmosphere.
As flight resumes, Hone said the industry may be on the cusp of the “Low Emissions Age”, a time that will fundamentally transform the aviation industry in the same way the Jet Age did.
“It's important to look at the history of the aviation business to try and think about this. This is a business that's grown over the 20th century from nothing to really very significant scale. And it's a business that in the process has fostered change,” Hone said. “We've got to imagine that happening in this transition as well. Now, there's a little bit of a chicken-and-egg thing here, but so who's going to step out and make the big order for new fuels? Or who's going to step out and build facilities that manufacture new fuels and offer them into the market?”
Watch: Turning to Nature to Tackle Emissions
The COVID-19 pandemic has created unprecedented disruptions in global aviation. But as signs of recovery take hold, the industry finds itself still facing the challenge of reducing carbon emissions and meeting the growing consumer demand for airlines to reduce their environmental impact. Nature-based projects, like planting trees and protecting forests, offer the best way for the aviation industry to reduce its carbon impact today and at scale, though cutting-edge solutions such as facilities that scrub CO2 directly out of the atmosphere hold great promise longer-term, according to Shell’s top climate adviser.
Watch: How Can Aviation Usher in a “Low Emissions Age”?
The aviation industry is running out of time to deploy carbon-mitigation tools, such as sustainable aviation fuel, and consumers are increasingly demanding that airlines take action today. David Hone, Shell’s top climate adviser has warned that the short window in which to act poses a risk that the sector will fail to hit its goal to halve CO2 emissions by 2050 relative to 2005.
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Watch: Nature’s Role in Tackling Aviation Emissions
Airlines are feeling pressure to curb CO2 emissions today. Until sustainable fuel and technology solutions are deployed to help avoid and reduce emissions directly, the industry will also need comprehensive carbon offset programmes if it is to meet its net emissions reduction targets. The Nature Conservancy’s Chris Webb points to airlines’ opportunity to benefit from the most effective carbon sink “technology” available today: nature itself.
Watch: What will it take to scale Sustainable Aviation Fuel?
The COVID-19 pandemic has hit the aviation industry hard. But as airlines chart a path to recovery, part of their return must include reducing the industry’s contribution to climate change. Bryan Sherbacow, Chief Commercial Officer of biofuel producer World Energy, discusses what it will take to help sustainable aviation fuel scale to the point where it will be competitive with conventional jet fuel.