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Past scenarios
Over the last three decades, Shell has developed Global Scenarios to cast light on the context in which the Group operates, to identify emerging challenges and to foster adaptability to change. These scenarios are used to help review and assess strategy.
Global Scenarios to 2025
The Global Scenarios to 2025 released in 2005 build on this foundation to develop an enhanced, robust methodology that addresses a broader range of strategic and planning needs across the whole spectrum of relevant time horizons and contexts.
Executive Summary of the Shell Global Scenarios to 2025 (pdf, size 231 kB) - opens in new window
Signposts - Supplement to Global Scenarios to 2025 (pdf, size 810 kB) - opens in new window or buy a hard copy.
Global Scenarios 2001 – 2020
The scenarios of the new century, People and Connections, add a social dimension to the economic and the political, and explore the question “Which people and connections will be most powerful and influential in shaping the future?” A globally interconnected meritocracy based on individual freedom and the American way (Business Class)? Or many networks reflecting the persisting power of culture and history (Prism)?
Download People and Connections - Global scenarios to 2020 (pdf, size 446 kB) - opens in new window
Global scenarios 1998 - 2020
The 1998 scenarios were built on Just Do It! as the only successful kind of response to TINA. In effect, the 1998 scenarios were an exploration of two aspects of TINA: ‘TINA above’ (The New Game) and ‘TINA below (People Power).
Download Global scenarios 1998 - 2020 booklet (pdf, size 826 kB) - opens in new window
Global scenarios 1995 - 2020
By 1995, it seemed clear that the forces of globalisation, liberalisation, and technology were irresistible – ‘TINA’ (There Is No Alternative). Leading from New Frontiers, the question changed from being “Will the world embrace or resist TINA?” to “What form of embrace will be most successful?”
At the time, there seemed to be two contenders for the prize: a US-style capitalism (Just Do It!) versus a more communitarian approach (Da Wo -‘Big Me’).
Download Global scenarios 1995 - 2020 booklet (pdf, size 444 kB) - opens in new window
Global Scenarios 1992 - 2020
In 1992, the forces of globalisation and liberalisation were being felt around the world. With the fall of the Berlin Wall, the century-long struggle among the three ideologies of fascism, communism, and capitalism seemed to have been won by capitalism. But the triumph of capitalism posed new threats to governments and societies who had much to lose.
The key question of the 1992 scenarios was: Will the forces of economic and political liberalisation be embraced (New Frontiers)? Or will they be resisted (Barricades)?
Download Global Scenarios 1992 - 2020 Part 1 booklet (pdf, size 2668 kB) - opens in new window
