Scenarios provide alternative views of the future. They identify some significant events, main actors and their motivations, and they convey how the world functions. Building and using scenarios can help us explore what the future might look like and the likely changes of living in it. Shell has been using scenarios for 30 years. Our audience does not only consist of businesses and governments but of all people who are curious by nature, and who are highly motivated to acquire a deeper understanding of themselves and the world around them.
"At times, the world can look so complex and unpredictable that it becomes hard to make decisions. Scenario building is a discipline for breaking through this barrier." - Ged Davis Managing director of the World Economic Forum's Centre for Strategic Insight.
When we reflect on situations or the future, we see the world through our own frames of reference. The purpose of scenario work is to uncover what these frames are, respecting differences rather than aiming for a consensus that puts them to one side.
Decision makers can use scenarios to think about the uncertain aspects of the future that most worry them – or to discover the aspects about which they should be concerned – and to explore ways in which these might unfold. Because there is no single answer to such enquries, scenario builders create sets of scenarios. These scenarios all address the same important questions and all include those aspects of the future that are likely to persist, but each one describes a different way in which the uncertain aspects could play out.
Scenarios are particularly useful in situations where there is a desire to put challenges on the agenda proactively (for example when there are leadership changes and major impending decisions) and where changes in the global business environment are recognised but not well understood (such as major political changes and new emerging technologies).
As they identify discontinuity as a central issue for organisations, scenarios help businesses and governments to prepare for ‘surprising’ change. An organisation that is open to change is much more likely to survive and thrive than one that is continually chasing events.
Good scenarios are ones that explore the possible, not just the probable – providing a relevant challenge to the conventional wisdom of their users, and helping them prepare for the major changes ahead. They will provide a useful context for debate, leading to better policy and strategy, and a shared understanding of, and commitment to actions.