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Over the last four decades, Shell has developed global scenarios to shed light on the operating environment, to identify emerging challenges and to better adapt to change. Shell leaders use scenarios to help guide company strategy and to share their insights with others.
Energy Needs, Choices and Possibilities – Scenarios to 2050
Published in 2011, “Energy Needs, Choices and Possibilities – Scenarios to 2050” considers two scenarios “Dynamics as Usual” and “Spirit of Coming Age”.
The two scenarios contrast an evolutionary progression from coal, to gas, to renewables (or possibly nuclear) against the potential for a hydrogen economy – supported by developments in fuel cells, advanced hydrocarbon technologies and carbon dioxide sequestration. They remind us that energy systems are dynamic, able to respond to changing conditions, choices and possibilities. They also suggest that the rise in human induced carbon dioxide emissions can be halted within the next 50 years – leading to a stabilising of atmospheric carbon dioxide levels below 550 parts per million by volume – without jeopardising economic development.
The scenarios explore uncertainties around the long-term role of gas, but highlight its key role as a bridging fuel.
Global Scenarios to 2050
Published in 2008, Shell Energy Scenarios to 2050 considers two plausible versions of the future. The first scenario, Scramble, sees policy makers pay little attention to more efficient energy use until supplies are tight. Greenhouse gas emissions are not seriously addressed until there are major climate shocks.
In the second scenario, Blueprints, growing local actions begin to address the challenges of economic development, energy security and environmental pollution. Financial incentives encourage the development of clean energy technologies, such as carbon dioxide capture and storage, and energy-efficiency measures. This scenario achieve lower CO2 emissions and offers the best hope of a sustainable future.
Shell Global Scenarios to 2050 in your language
Scenarios: An Explorer’s Guide
Read “Scenarios: An Explorer’s Guide” to build and use scenarios, gaining a deeper understanding of the world around you.
Global Scenarios to 2025
The Global Scenarios to 2025 released in 2005 build on this foundation to develop an enhanced, robust methodology that addresses a broader range of strategic and planning needs across the whole spectrum of relevant time horizons and contexts.
Global Scenarios 2001 – 2020
The scenarios of the new century, People and Connections, add a social dimension to the economic and the political, and explore the question “Which people and connections will be most powerful and influential in shaping the future?” A globally interconnected meritocracy based on individual freedom and the American way (Business Class)? Or many networks reflecting the persisting power of culture and history (Prism)?
Global Scenarios 1998 - 2020
The 1998 scenarios were built on Just Do It! as the only successful kind of response to TINA. In effect, the 1998 scenarios were an exploration of two aspects of TINA: ‘TINA above’ (The New Game) and ‘TINA below (People Power).
Global Scenarios 1995 - 2020
By 1995, it seemed clear that the forces of globalisation, liberalisation, and technology were irresistible – ‘TINA’ (There Is No Alternative). Leading from New Frontiers, the question changed from being “Will the world embrace or resist TINA?” to “What form of embrace will be most successful?”
At the time, there seemed to be two contenders for the prize: a US-style capitalism (Just Do It!) versus a more communitarian approach (Da Wo -‘Big Me’).
Global Scenarios 1992 - 2020
In 1992, the forces of globalisation and liberalisation were being felt around the world. With the fall of the Berlin Wall, the century-long struggle among the three ideologies of fascism, communism, and capitalism seemed to have been won by capitalism. But the triumph of capitalism posed new threats to governments and societies who had much to lose.
The key question of the 1992 scenarios was: Will the forces of economic and political liberalisation be embraced (New Frontiers)? Or will they be resisted (Barricades)?