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Shell has been developing scenarios to explore the future since the early 1970s. Scenarios are stories that consider “what if?” questions. Whereas forecasts focus on probabilities, scenarios consider a range of plausible futures and how these could emerge from the realities of today. They recognise that people hold beliefs and make choices that lead to outcomes. Our scenarios team considers changes such as in the global economic environment, geopolitics, resource stresses such as water, greenhouse gases, and energy supply and demand to help business leaders make better decisions.
Energy, environmental and economic challenges will get tougher as world population grows. Scenarios that create credible views of what may lie ahead can help companies and governments to be better prepared to tackle them.