Jump menu

Main content |  back to top

Shell has been developing scenarios to explore the future since the early 1970s. Scenarios are stories that consider “what if?” questions. Whereas forecasts focus on probabilities, scenarios consider a range of plausible futures and how these could emerge from the realities of today. They recognise that people hold beliefs and make choices that lead to outcomes. Our scenarios team considers changes such as in the global economic environment, geopolitics, resource stresses such as water, greenhouse gases, and energy supply and demand to help business leaders make better decisions.

What are Shell Scenarios?

Find out how scenarios are developed and what they mean for Shell and the wider world.

New Lens Scenarios

What might lie ahead in 2100? Our latest scenarios explore two possible versions of the future seen through fresh “lenses”.

New Lenses on Future Cities

Discover how the world could build more efficient, attractive cities into the future.

Shaping a vision of the future

Energy, environmental and economic challenges will get tougher as world population grows. Scenarios that create credible views of what may lie ahead can help companies and governments to be better prepared to tackle them.

Meet the Shell Scenarios team

Discover the people behind the groundbreaking work that explores plausible versions of the future.

40 years of Scenarios

Discover how scenarios helped Shell to prepare for the 1970s oil crisis and the South African government to plan for post-apartheid South Africa.

Past scenarios

Download past versions of Shell Global Scenarios.