Scenarios help decision-makers better understand and deal with uncertainty, such as how political change in one region might impact global society. They also have the potential to improve awareness around issues that could become increasingly important, such as increased urbanisation, greater connectivity or loss of trust in institutions.
By exploring plausible outcomes, scenarios challenge conventional wisdom. Organisations using scenarios find it easier to recognise impending disruptions in their own operating environment, such as political changes, demographic shifts or economic recessions. They also increase their resilience to sudden changes caused by unexpected crises like natural disasters or armed conflicts.
In an industry often defined by uncertainty and volatility, Shell is stronger thanks to the forward-planning capacity that scenarios bring. Over time, Shell Scenarios have gained a global following among governments, academia and business.
Our latest scenarios
In their latest supplement, called A Better Life with a Healthy Planet, the Shell Scenarios team has examined choices, challenges and ideas to decarbonise the global economy.
The supplement builds on the Shell New Lens Scenarios published in 2013, which showed that getting close to net-zero emissions towards the end of the century, at the same time as achieving economic growth, is a challenging but potentially achievable vision.